WAGGA MAN takes an advance look at the leading contenders in next Saturday’s Crabbie’s Grand National at Aintree. He comes down in favour of a horse trading at around 30 on BETDAQ.
With an estimated viewing audience of up to six hundred million people, The Aintree Grand National in Liverpool is the most anticipated jump race in the World of Racing.
Some thirty fences are jumped, in a Handicap run over a distance of 4miles 3½ furlongs and when you add the task of jumping fences like Bechers Brook and the Chair, it is without doubt the most challenging race on the calendar for both Horse and Jockey.
Steeped in history with household names such as Red Rum (3 times winner), winning jockey Bob Champion1981 (battled cancer) and “the race that never was” in 1993, it is a race that captures the public’s imagination and is regarded as one of the World’s Greatest Sporting events.
So who is Wagga Man going to shortlist for this year’s renewal, amongst the forty contenders who should go to post?
Before we start, let’s throw in some stats, as many wagers will be placed, based on trends.
• There has been only one winner of the Grand National carrying more than 11st5lbs since 1977, out of 109 runners, in 2012 with Neptune Collonges (11-6)
• Every winner since 1970 had a win over three miles to their name.
• Seven of the last fourteen winners have jumped over the Grand National fences previously.
• Irish trained runners have won six of the last fifteen Grand Nationals.
• Sixteen of the last twenty-three winners started in the first eight in the betting.
• The previous year’s Irish Grand National has been a key race in the form.
• Check for previous Grand National form.
• There have only been two French-bred winners of the Grand National in the last 101 years, Neptune Collonges in 2012 and Mon Mome in 2009.
• Twenty two of the last twenty two winners have all had their last prep run for the Grand National within 55 days of the big race
• Twenty one of the last twenty two Grand National’s have been won by a horse rated higher than 139
• There has not been a single Grand National Winner in the last 68 years who was aged below 8-years-old; nor has there been one older than 12 for the last 85 years
As highlighted in previous previews, these are just stats, but they can be helpful when coming down with your final selections in a race were a lot of luck in-running is required, to capture the Greatest Steeple Chase in the world.
Contenders
Tidal Bay
The Paul Nicholls trained veteran is now a 13-year-old. Add top weight of 11st10lbs and the unlikely hood of getting his favoured soft ground, the son of Flemensfirth, is confidently overlooked even when allowing he is 7lbs better in, from his official rating of 168.
Tidal Bay is one of the most popular horses in training and will have his supporters, for me though there are too many negatives to suggest the Nicholls charge can land this prize.
Triolo D’Alene
The young 7-year-old ran in the Gold Cup finishing tenth of the eleven finishers. The gelding isn’t exactly well in here at the weights either; carrying 11st6lbs, so I suspect asking a 7-year-old to win off this type of weight is a big ask.
However, having won over the National fences in the Topham Chase last year, it would be dangerous to totally rule out the son of Epalo. Course form can be an advantage but been so young and carrying 11st6lbs puts me off.
Monbeg Dude
Trained by Michael Scudamore this former winner of the Welsh National in 2012 has to be respected over a trip that should suit. The 9-year-old won that race off a mark of 128 in what was heavy ground and beat the Ante Post favourite for this race Teaforthree by half a length.
I do however feel soft ground is a must and Teaforthree looks better handicapped coming into this race. With cut in the ground, the son of Witness Box could run a good race, but I’d prefer to look elsewhere for the winner.
Teaforthree
This 10-year-old ticks a lot of boxes. The Rebecca Curtis trained son of Oscar has form on all types of going, so ground will not be an issue, and is well weighted. The gelding is a former winner of Cheltenham’s National Hunt Chase over 4miles in 2012 and having run third in this race last year, he has proven pedigree over the National fences.
One problem for me though, is the fact he seems to be very hard to win with. The gelding got touched off by Restless Harry at Ascot over 3miles and with a win record of just four from twenty four starts; the Irish bred is way too short a price for my liking, but he should be on the scene at the depth.
Long Run
The former Gold Cup winner of 2011 has to be respected in a race that can bring some former stars back to life. With a previous highest rating of 182, the gelding gets in here off a mark of 160 and it could be argued that the French bred 9-year-old is getting in here on a good mark.
His jockey Sam Waley-Cohen has also got a great record over the National fences. The amateur rider finished second aboard Oscar Time in 2011 and the 31-year-old jockey has also won over the National course on three occasions, so the course brings out the best in him.
The problem is Long Run has been on a steady decline for the last couple of seasons. French bred horses have a dismal record in the race (see stat above) and once they lose their form, reverting back to the good-old days, is rare.
Given the positives highlighted above though, the Nicky Henderson trained runner could run a big race and is not dismissed lightly.
Rocky Creek
This Paul Nicholls second season novice has form on most types of ground, but I do suspect some cut would be preferred. The 8-year-old has live prospects and the step up to over 4miles may well suit.
“Rocky’s” running in the Hennessy when second to Triolo D’Alene reads well, having given the winner 4lbs and in this race the son of Dr Massini gets a 5lbs pull. The Irish bred also jumps quite well and his trainer Paul Nicholls knows what’s required to win this race.
His latest run behind The Giant Bolster when giving 5lbs looks a good effort now after the “Giants” running in the Gold Cup and I feel if improving for the step up in distance and taking to the National fences, he is one for consideration.
Should run a big race.
Burton Port
Formerly trained by Nicky Henderson up until April 2012, this 10-year-old is now trained by former winning trainer Jonjo O’Neill. The son of Bob Back was a high class performer and if returning to the sort of form when fourth in the 2012 Gold Cup behind Synchronised, he has a live chance.
The Trevor Hemmings owned gelding likes good ground, and showed he may be coming to hand at the right time on his latest start. In a Veterans Handicap Chase at Newbury, the Irish bred ran a good race finishing second to Summary Justice under a big weight and if building on that run, the gelding could be thrown in here.
Having had an official rating of 166 in 2012, he gets in here on a mark of 145 and receives some 16lbs from top weight Tidal Bay. If “Jonjo” has the runner-up of the 2010 RSA Chase back to his best, with luck in-running he may take some beating.
The signs were good last time out, and for me the 10-year-old has to have a great chance in a race were previous high class performers have recaptured their old form.
Mon Mome 2009 and Comply or Die 2008, are two that spring to mind.
Burton Port’s owner Mr Trevor Hemmings has also got a great record in the race, having been victorious with Hedgehunter 2005 and Ballabriggs in 2011 and Burton Port has a great chance in making it three.
Sunnyhillboy
Now an 11-year-old, the son of Old Vic has the same connections of the 2010 winner, Don’t Push It. The JP McManus/ Jonjo O’Neill runner was also just touched off in this race in 2012 by the Paul Nicholls trained Neptune Collonges and comes into this race well supported in the Ante Post market.
The gelding is decently handicapped in this renewal, was asked to carry 11st4lds last year after unseating his rider, carries 10st9lbs this year, and if getting around he should be in with a shout.
We haven’t seen the gelding since December, when winning at Cheltenham in a Handicap Hurdle and with a stat of the last twenty-two winners of this event having had a run within fifty-five days of the race, this is a worry.
“Jonjo” has a strong hand, I do however prefer the chances of his other contender Burton Port, but Sunnyhillboy has to be on the shortlist especially on his 2012 running when short headed in the closest finish in Grand National history.
Pineau De Re
Trained by former GP, Dr Richard Newland this 11-year-old is certainly of interest. The French bred ran in last year’s Topham Chase won by Chance Du Roy, were his faith was known early, fell at the 8th fence when trying to get into contention.
That was the son of Maresca Sorrento’s only attempt at the National fences, but he did run a fine race in a Handicap Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival on his latest start, to suggest he is going the right way.
However formerly trained in Ireland by Philip Fenton his form simply doesn’t look good enough, even off a low weight of 10st6lbs. He will have his supporters though, as the Grand National loves fairytales and this one winning would certainly fall into that category.
The French bred is trained by a small stable, whose trainer double jobs between the equine world and the medical profession, but Dr Newland has had success in other big races.
For me though, I don’t believe in fairytales and Pineau De Re is overlooked as the eventual winner.
Colbert Station
Irish horses have a good record in recent year’s winning six of the last fifteen runnings. Ted Walsh’s Colbert Station unseated his rider in last year’s renewal and has not had the best of preparations by falling at Leopardstown last time out.
However Walsh, who was successful in this race back in 2000 with Papillon, knows what it takes to win this race and this 11-year-old went off as short as 12/1 in last year’s race, suggesting a big run was on the cards.
The son of Witness Box hasn’t come down in the weights with 11st to carry, and on what he has achieved this year-to-date, is over looked.
Godsmejudge
Having won the Scottish equivalent last year, the Alan King trained 8-year-old has to be respected. The problem is, since that victory the Irish bred has struggled, having been pulled up in his last two starts, and coming into a race of this nature I would have preferred to see some spark.
If his trainer can get him back in form come the first Saturday in April he could be on the scene, but that is a big if and is overlooked.
Chance Du Roy
This French bred is of interest, having shown he can jump around this circuit no fewer than three times and winning last December’s Bechers Chase by a length, over 3m2f.
His trainer Philip Hobbs has never won the National and with a weight of 10st6lds, he has a sporting chance. I do feel however this race will be won by a classier animal and I would look elsewhere for the potential winner.
Balthazar King
Trained also by Philip Hobbs, this son of King’s Theatre finished 15th in last year’s renewal, (ground was good-soft) and even allowing for his victory at Cheltenham in the Cross Country Chase over 3m7f last time, I feel the gelding has it all to do.
Note however, the faster the ground the better for this 10-year-old and if on the day the ground is riding on the fast side he could be thereabouts, but winning I pretty much doubt.
Prince De Beauchene
Trained by Willie Mullins who captured this prize in 2005 with Hedgehunter, this 11-year-old may well be the pick of the Irish contingent.
A winner of the Grade 2 Bobby Jo Chase in 2012, twice he has been fancied for the National and both times missed the race through injury. The son of French Glory has also come down in the weights since then and could be a live contender.
The gelding ran a good race in January over a trip too short of 2m4f, finishing behind Last Instalment and Bailey Green, high class performers. He gets in her on a mark of 147, whilst not overly generous it does leave room if he was to put his best foot forward.
A live contender, but may find one or two better on the day.
David Pipe saddles a number of runners but none of them look good enough to land the prize. The Package may be the pick of his contenders, if you are a Pipe fan.
Double Seven
Trained in Ireland by Martin Brassil, this 8-year-old is officially rated 145 and gets in here 3lb worst off carrying 10st11lbs. The son of Milan prefers fast ground but he is versatile having won with cut also.
Owned by JP McManus, he won the Munster National at Limerick last October beating the subsequent Kim Muir winner at Cheltenham Spring Heeled by 2 lengths, and seen the gelding also gave 3lds, that was a good performance.
The Irish bred ran a good prep race also at Leopardstwon in soft ground over a distance too short in March, which should put him spot on for this.
Along with Prince De Beauchene, Double Seven may represent the best chance of landing the prize for Ireland, and is definitely on my shortlist as the Handicapper may well not have got to the bottom of his ability.
Quirky individuals Battle Group (Johnny Farrelly) and Wayward Prince (Hilary Parrott) could represent good each-way value, for those who look for big outsiders with a squeak.
2012 Irish Grand National winner Lion Na Bearnai needs soft ground to be at his best, and now a 12-year-old the Irish trained contender doesn’t look to have the same credentials as previous Irish National winners, to land the prize.
The Alan King trained Walkon, also fits the bill, as this 9-year-old has good pieces of form and has successfully got round the National course finishing second in the 2013 Topham Chase won by Triolo D’Alene.
Summary
A fascinating renewal, where on first thoughts I think the Irish contingent, may not be as good as previous years, but both Prince De Beauchene and Double Seven can be competitive and get in the mix.
Tidal Bay would bring the house down, but at the age of thirteen, is overlooked to land the Greatest Steeple Chase in the World.
The Paul Nicholls trained Rocky Creek is a good second season novice with a lot going for him and should run a big race. Teaforthree, Sunnyhillboy and Long Run all have to be respected but my idea of the winner comes in the form of the Jonjo O’Neill trained, Burton Port.
I suspect that connections have had this race in mind for a long time and seen this is a horse that has run up to a mark of 166, he could basically be thrown in here.
The 10-year-old likes good ground, which he should get, and his owner has been lucky in this race in the past.
For those who like big prices, Walkon and Wayward Prince could run well and grab a place in a race were quite literally, anything can happen.
In a race were up to forty runners will go to post, mentioning all is not foreseeable, in an in-depth preview, so hopefully the winner is mentioned within this article?
Wagga Man’s Verdict
Winner:
Burton Port
Horses fighting for places:
Rocky Creek
Teaforthree
Double Seven
Sunnyhillboy
Long Run
Balthazar King
Longshots:
Battle Group
Walkon
Wayward Prince
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