WAGGA MAN previews both the Supreme Novices Hurdle and the Arkle Challenge Trophy – the first two races on the opening day of Cheltenham 2014.
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Here are the previews….
Supreme Novices Hurdle
Willie Mullins has won the curtain raiser on three occasions, including last year with Champagne Fever under the guidance of Ruby Walsh. The pair team up again with the ex-French trained Vautour. The 5-year-old comes into this race having won a Grade 1 at Leopardstown on his latest start, when making all to account for the now absent The Tullow Tank.
That was a solid performance and having shown vast improvement is his jumping technique, he was allowed to dictate from the front. I suspect Walsh, will try and take the sting out of the other runners; most notably the Paul Nicholls trained Irving and if Vautour jumps with the same fluency as at Leopardstown, the Mullins trained gelding will be hard to beat.
This brings us to the Paul Nicholls trained Irving. The 6-year-old is a very exciting prospect, as the son of Singspiel has shown an excellent turn of foot in his three victories to date. An ex-flat performer in Germany rated 95; the gelding may well go off favourite here.
Note; two of the last ten winners of this race have come via the flat with a rating between 91 and 110 and Irving falls into this category. Paul Nicholls has also won this race twice so improvement may well be on the cards.
However, no favourite has won this event since Brave Inca in 2004, and considering the gelding has never gone left-handed, he may well be too short a price for punting. The English bred jumps generally well, but can be inclined to miss the odd one and improvement will have to be forthcoming in the jumping department.
The same can be said of the other Mullins contender Wicklow Brave when it comes to jumping. The 5-year-old has had two runs to date over the smaller obstacles and on both occasions he has jumped awkwardly to say the least; a couple of things should be noted though on this contender.
• 8 of the last 10 winners of this event have come through the bumper route; Wicklow Brave won his last three bumpers before embarking on his hurdling career.
• It may well be the case that the English bred gelding will improve considerably once he gets a stronger pace and gets better ground.
Ruby Walsh has choice of rides when it comes to the Mullins pair and although I suspect the decision was hard to make, he may just have made the right call. Vautour is basically a second season novice and I suspect experience played a part in his final decision.
This is far from a three horse race. Others to consider are the Nicky Henderson trained Josses Hill, David Pipes 6-year-old The Liquidtor, the Irish trained Western Boy, recent Betfair Hurdle winner Splash Of Ginge and runner-up Dell’ Arca.
Of the above mentioned, The Liquidator could be the pick. If you forgive the gelding for his poor run at Kempton last time, last year’s Champion Bumper fourth, could well be a generous price here and represent good each way value.
Summary
Although Vautour has not come through the bumper route, I do predict Ruby Walsh will gain his fourth victory in this race aboard the 5-year-old, at the expense of stable companion Wicklow Brave and the Nicholls trained Irving.
The Liquidator has sound each-way prospects, in what is a fascinating contest.
Waggaman’s Verdict
Vautour
Arkle Challenge Trophy
A fascinating renewal of this event, as a lot of contenders brings good form when competing over the smaller obstacles. This is not a race to get heavily involved in but one interesting stat is that nine of the last ten winners had posted a rating of at least 142 over hurdles.
We start with the Willie Mullins trained grey Champagne Fever. With a previous top rating of 157 over hurdles this 7-year-old fits the bill. A dual course winner; won Champion Bumper 2012 and Supreme Novices 2013, Ruby Walsh’s mount is a serious contender.
I do feel however reputation and performances at the track have slightly blinkered many folk’s opinions when assessing his chances in this year’s race. The gelding has had just two starts over fences and on his second start; it didn’t all go to plan.
The 7-year-old made a horrific error two out when making the running and then failed to make any further impression on either Defy Logic or second placed Trifolium. No doubt the error paid to his chances but if clouting a fence at Cheltenham in similar fashion, its game over.
I would also have preferred to have seen the son of Stowaway turn out again, has been absent since Christmas and when you consider 8 out of the last 10 winners have had a prep race within 52 days of the Festival, many questions have to answered for me.
Previous Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby has to be considered. Now a 9-year-old, no 9-year-old has won this race since Danish Flight back in 1988, but then again I doubt many have contested it. With a top rating over hurdles of 167, it would be foolish to rule out Harry Fry’s contender.
With Cheltenham figures reading, 122132 he is a model of consistency. The gelding has had just two runs over fences and last time out beat the quirky Mr Mole at Doncaster in what was only a two horse race. The “Rock” jumped well that day and if jumping holds up on the big day, Noel Fehily’s mount is a serious contender.
Like Champagne Fever, I am slightly concerned over the lack of experience over the bigger obstacles but I expect a big run.
The Paul Nicholls trained Dodging Bullets probably brings the best piece of form into this race from a British point of view. Having slammed Grandouet by 10 lengths, the 6-year-old then finished second beating 1/4L by the more experienced Module and considering he gave 3lb to the winner, it was a good run.
With a previous hurdle rating of 154 and the fact he has won over C&D in a Grade 2 Novice Chase, the son of Dubawi ticks an awful lot of boxes and comes here with a big chance.
That brings us to the Charles Byrnes trained contender Trifolium. The 7-year-old looks the most natural jumper in the field. He slammed the Willie Mullins trained Felix Yonger last time at Leopardstown giving an exhibition of jumping when winning a Grade 1 contest.
The gelding also has form at the track and has posted hurdles rating of 147 when finishing third in the 2012 Supreme Novices. The Michael O’Leary owned gelding has a huge chance if jumping to the same level as in his previous victory and should be there at the finish.
I just wonder however if one of the better hurdlers in the field gets their act together, he may find one or two just too good.
Of the others, I have given up on the frustrating Henderson trained Grandouet, who quite frankly always seems to have an excuse. The Alan King trained Valdez looks a nice horse but needs to improve considerably to figure here.
Ted Veale is interesting at a tempting price. Trained in Ireland by AJ Martin the 7-year-old won the County Hurdle last year and if the course once again brings out the best in him the son of Revouge could run a big race, but note he is well held on all his form in his first three chase starts to date.
Summary
A tough race to work out and for me it is a race not to get too heavily involved in. However, by process of elimination I bring this down to four, Champagne Fever, Trifolium, Dodging Bullets and Rock On Ruby.
I feel experience is important but on this occasion I am willing to overlook lack of experience for former Champion Hurdle winner Rock On Ruby. Unlike Champagne Fever, the gelding impressed me with his jumping, even though it was a two horse race on his latest start.
Mr Mole is no mug, and with improvement likely, Harry Fry’s stable star gets the vote.Trifolium, Champagne Fever and Dodging Bullets may fight it out for the remaining places.
Waggaman’s Verdict
Rock On Ruby
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