Washington Redskins (3-8, 4-7 ATS) @ Indianapolis Colts (7-4, 8-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Indianapolis -10 (51)
Significant Injuries
Washington: CB E.J. Biggers (questionable– concussion), TE Jordan Reed (questionable– hamstring), OT Trent Williams (questionable– knee), S Ryan Clark (questionable– shoulder), DE Jason Hatcher (questionable– knee)
Indianapolis: CB Darius Butler (questionable– knee), S Colt Anderson (questionable– knee), TE Dwayne Allen (out– ankle), OT Xavier Nixon (out– foot), G Hugh Thornton (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss
Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall
Indianapolis is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Indianapolis is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a losing record
Indianapolis is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games
The UNDER is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 games following a loss
The UNDER is 4-1 in Washington’s last 5 games overall
The OVER is 10-3 in Indianapolis’ last 13 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Redskins have been very good on the road lately, nearly winning in San Francisco last week (a 4-point loss as a 9-point ‘dog), losing by just 3 in Minnesota in Week 9, and defeating Dallas in JerryWorld in Week 8. They’re simply getting too many points here; their recent history does not suggest that they’ll lose by more than 10 in Indianapolis.
2. The Washington defense is a solid, well-balanced unit that ranks 8th against the pass and 9th against the run. The Indianapolis offense, meanwhile, isn’t the same after losing its 2nd-best player (running back Ahmad Bradshaw) to a season-ending injury two weeks ago. Last week the Colts struggled to move the ball against a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st in points allowed, and in Week 11 they were even worse in a blowout loss to New England. The Redskins have a much better defense than either of those teams.
3. This week Washington coach Jay Gruden wisely turned back to Colt McCoy at quarterback, who has played winning football when given the opportunity this season. McCoy has an opportunity to shine in this matchup, as the Indianapolis defense ranks 20th against the pass.
Three reasons to back Indianapolis
1. This is a good team vs. a bad team. The Colts are 7-4 and have a 2-game lead in their division, while Washington is a 3-8 cellar dweller. The Redskins have lost three straight games despite playing two of the NFC’s worst teams (Tampa Bay, Minnesota). Don’t make this more complicated than it has to be: back the better team.
2. Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck, a budding superstar, leads an offense that averages 433 total yards and 323 pass yards per game, ranking 1st in the NFL in both categories. They don’t have any trouble turning those yards into points, either, as they’ve scored 20 points or more in every game this season and are currently averaging over 30 per game. They should roll right over a Washington defense that ranks 21st in points allowed.
3. The Redskins have a pathetic offense that has produced 20 points or fewer in 7 of their past 8 games despite facing some truly terrible defenses in that stretch (NY Giants, Tennessee, Tampa Bay, etc.). They’re starting journeyman Colts McCoy at quarterback and they’re facing an Indianapolis defense that, with the exception of a meltdown against New England, has been excellent at home, limiting Baltimore, Cincinnati, and Jacksonville to just 16 combined points en route to winning all three games. Washington has little chance of success in this matchup.
Prediction
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