Washington Redskins (3-8, 3-8 ATS) @ San Francisco 49ers (6-4, 6-4 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: San Francisco -8.5 (44)
Significant Injuries
Washington: OT Trent Williams (questionable– knee), G Shawn Lauvao (questionable– concussion), DE Chris Baker (out– chest), TE Jordan Reed (out– hamstring)
San Francisco: CB Tramaine Brock (questionable– hamstring), WR Bruce Ellington (questionable– ankle), TE Vance McDonald (questionable– hip), LB Dan Skuta (questionable– ankle), OT Anthony Davis (out– concussion), DT Glenn Dorsey (out– forearm)
Recent Trends
Washington is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss
Washington is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games
Washington is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall
San Francisco is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games
San Francisco has beaten Washington in 11 of the past 14 meetings between the 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-2 in Washington’s last 6 games overall
The UNDER is 6-2 in San Francisco’s last 8 home games
The UNDER is 9-4 in San Francisco’s last 13 games overall
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Redskins rank 8th in total offense and 10th in total defense; they’re just too good to be getting 8.5 points from a San Francisco team that has been decidedly underwhelming this season. Since Week 1 the Niners have won just 1 game by more than 8.5 points.
2. San Francisco has a pedestrian offense that is averaging just 218 passing yards and 21.1 points per game. They scored just 16 points against the porous Giants defense last week, and that came just 2 weeks after managing only 10 against the Rams. They’ll have trouble moving the ball consistently on Washington’s 10th-ranked D.
3. The Redskins have been competitive on the road this season, so losing by more than 8.5 on Sunday would be a bit unusual. In their last 4 road games, for instance, that ‘Skins have lost by 9 or more just once, and that was a 10-point decision at the hands of the Arizona Cardinals, the NFL’s best team. Just three weeks ago Washington went into Dallas as a 9-point ‘dog and won outright, so the opportunity to back them as such a big underdog in this situation should not be missed.
Three reasons to back San Francisco
1. The Niners have won their last two games and are right in the thick of the playoff race at 6-4. They badly need a win this week so it’s a good thing they have Washington on the schedule, a team that has lost 6 of its past 8 games. The Redskins have been a toxic team for bettors, covering just once in their last 7 games, and should not be trusted in this situation.
2. The quarterback situation in Washington is an absolute circus right now. RGIII has struggled and has now been publicly called out by his head coach, who effectively admitted that the next 6 games would be an “audition” to see whether Griffin remained in the team’s long-term plans. It seems risky to publicly call out a player who is clearly already struggling with his confidence, but Gruden doesn’t want to be tied to Griffin long-term and I think he’s willing to sacrifice wins in the short term if it means that owner Dan Snyder will “see the light” on Griffin. For bettors, that means one thing: avoid Washington at all costs.
3. San Francisco has a dominant defense that ranks 4th in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed and 6th against the run. They should be able to smother a Redskins offense that ranks 22nd in points scored and has produced more than 20 points just once in their last 7 games.
Prediction
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