PHOENIX OPEN: The PGA Tour returns to the desert this week for the Waste Management Phoenix Open, an event that has a long and storied history and has become a fan favorite in recent years thanks to the raucous atmosphere at the par-3 16th. But this week is about much more than drunken fans and their interactions with the players– a top-flight field is on hand to do battle with the venerable TPC Scottsdale, and if it turns out anything like last year, when young stars Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama dueled in a playoff, we’re in for a treat.
Matsuyama is back to defend and sits alongside Jordan Spieth atop BETDAQ’s Win Market, with Spieth trading at 10.0 and Matsuyama at 11.0 at the time of this writing. They’re followed by the likes of Justin Thomas (14.5), Bubba Watson (29.0), Phil Mickelson (31.0), and Brooks Koepka (31.0), and there’s some new blood sprinkled in there as well– Jon Rahm, the young Spanish star who picked up his first career win at last week’s Farmers Insurance Open, is priced at 20.0, which is shorter than everyone in the field outside of Spieth, Matsuyama, and Thomas. Many will think he’s overvalued and shouldn’t be backed at such a price, but he has great familiarity with TPC Scottsdale, having played collegiately at Arizona St., and he finished 5th in this tournament as an amateur back in 2015. Plus, he’s a transcendent talent who is sure to be piling up the wins in the coming months and years. I certainly have no problem with a Rahm bet this week…
TPC Scottsdale is a 7,200-yard par-71 that has been torched on occasion, like when Phil Mickelson posted 28-under back in 2013, but generally holds up fairly well. Last year, for instance, only five players reached double-digits under par, and the winning score is traditionally in the 15-under range. The course is not particularly long but has favored longer players in the past, with three par-5s that are reachable in two, a drivable par-4, and several holes that feature trouble in the 275-285 range, which is the landing zone for the non-bombers. That said, short-and-straight types have won this tournament as well, so it’s important to not get too wrapped up in style and “fit” when handicapping the field this week.
Here are my thoughts:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryan Moore (34.0)- Moore has really come into his own on the PGA Tour, winning a tournament in four of the past five years and finishing a career-best 7th in the FedEx Cup standings last season. Like most veterans, he seems to have settled into a schedule that works for him: he never plays too many weeks in a row, he has a carefully planned buildup for the majors, and he knows which courses suit his game. One of those courses is, you guessed it, TPC Scottsdale. Moore has been an absolute cash register in this event, missing only two cuts in 11 career appearances and logging top-20 finishes in each of the past four years. He hasn’t played for a couple of weeks but was brilliant at Kapalua last month, finishing third after opening with a pair of 67s, so there’s no reason to be concerned about the state of his game. At better than 30/1, Moore is the best value on the board this week.
J.B. Holmes (50.0)– Yes, I realize Holmes hasn’t done anything spectacular in recent weeks. Who cares? Not me, not when he’s priced at 50.0 at TPC Scottsdale. Unless he’s injured– which he isn’t, at the moment– there’s absolutely no reason not to snap up Holmes at this price, as there’s simply no one who plays TPC Scottsdale better. He’s won this tournament twice, after all, and he managed a 6th-place finish last year despite clearly not having his “A” game. And it’s not like he’s been chopping it Steven Bowditch-style lately: he made the cut at the Farmers last week, closing with a 68 to finish 33rd, and prior to that he was last seen at December’s Hero World Challenge, where he shot 7-under and finished 11th in a limited field. In other words, there’s nothing wrong with Holmes’ game that a week at TPC Scottsdale can’t fix.
Billy Horschel (100.0)- Horschel’s last brush with success came just three starts ago, when he nearly won November’s RSM Classic before bowing out in a 5-man playoff. He’s been a bit streaky throughout his career but when he’s got it going he’s as good as anybody, and he’s a tough competitor who seems to play his best in pressure-packed situations. Maybe he can play himself into just such a situation this week, as he seems to like it at TPC Scottsdale after registering three top-30 finishes in his last four appearances at this event. He’s never finished higher than 11th but he’s carded some impressive numbers, highlighted by a 3rd-round 64 back in 2013, and 7 of his last 8 rounds at TPC Scottsdale have been par or better. His results over the past couple of weeks haven’t been noteworthy, though he did make the cut both weeks, but Horschel is the type of player who could suddenly bust out and take it deep. He’s worth a chance at the current price.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Phil Mickelson (1.91) vs. Brooks Koepka (1.91)
Koepka won this event in 2015 and he played great golf over the second half of last year, but after a poor performance in December’s Hero World Challenge and a missed cut last week it looks like he’s still shaking off some offseason rust. Mickelson, meanwhile, is coming off back-to-back encouraging performances, highlighted by a 14th-place showing at Torrey Pines last week. We should also mention that Mickelson has won this event three times, holds the scoring record at 28-under, and has found the top-10 an astounding ten times. Recommendation: Mickelson at 1.91
Patrick Reed (1.91) vs. Rickie Fowler (1.91)
TPC Scottsdale has been very good to Fowler over the years, as he’s made 6 cuts in 8 career appearances at this event and has a pair of runner-up finishes, including last year. He took a nice, long offseason break, however, and didn’t have his best stuff when he returned to action last week, missing the cut after a 2nd-round 75. Reed can’t match Fowler in terms of course history, but he’s never missed the cut in this tournament and his 12th-place showing at the CareerBuilder Challenge two weeks ago suggests that he’s still on form after a hot run in the fall. Recommendation: Reed at 1.91
