WGC BRIDGESTONE: While a new place on the schedule has resulted in a slight loss of luster, this week’s WGC Bridgestone Invitational is still a premier event with a huge purse and a top-notch field. Of course, the field isn’t quite as strong as we traditionally see in a WGC event, as several of Europe’s biggest names– McIlroy, Stenson, Willett, and Garcia, to name a few– chose to either rest this week or tee it up in the Open de France. The aforementioned scheduling change is the culprit, as this tournament was forced to move from its traditional early-August slot due to the Olympics, making it a tough sell for those who are still decompressing from the U.S. Open or have already turned their attention to the other side of the Atlantic, where Troon awaits in two weeks.
But lest you think this is some kind of second-rate event, just take a look at some of the names that are in the field– Day, Spieth, Johnson, Scott, Rose, Watson, Fowler… and remember, with only 60 players in attendance, the chances of a marquee leaderboard on Sunday afternoon are significantly higher that usual. From a bettor’s perspective, the combination of a limited field and a familiar golf course that has been regularly used for over two decades gives us plenty of statistical ammo and makes this week’s proceedings feel less like a “lottery” than usual.
Firestone Country Club’s South Course will be the site of the action, just as it has been for 16 of the past 17 years. A long, straightforward par-70, Firestone shares many similarities with the courses we’ve seen over the last two weeks– Oakmont and Congressional– and is generally considered a ball-strikers layout that prioritizes length off the tee and accuracy with the mid-irons. Tiger Woods owned this tournament before he faded from relevance, winning it eight times, and the two stagings since Woods’ last triumph have both been won by excellent drivers of the golf ball– Rory McIlroy in 2014, and Shane Lowry last year.
Lowry is back to defend and is fairly priced at 46.0, especially considering his terrific performance at Oakmont two weeks ago. I was tempted to go in that direction, but I’ve found three that I like just a bit more:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Brooks Koepka (23.0)- Freakishly long but also possessing a soft pair of hands, Koepka is a player on the precipice of greatness. Over the last month he’s been contending every time he’s teed it up, following back-to-back runner-up finishes at the Byron Nelson and St. Jude with a T13 at the U.S. Open. His length off the tee allows him to cut bigger courses like Firestone down to size, so it shouldn’t be surprising that he finished 6th in his debut appearance here last year. Look for him to top that performance this week.
Branden Grace (31.0)- Grace has a solid history in this event, logging two top-25s in four career appearances and finishing 17th last year, but it’s his recent form that has really caught my eye. He’s simply been on a tear since missing the cut at The Masters, winning the RBC Heritage, finishing 9th at the Valero Texas Open, and coming in 5th at Oakmont two weeks ago, his second consecutive top-5 in the U.S. Open. With his wins at The Heritage and in Qatar earlier this year he’s shown that he can be trusted on Sunday, and the fact that he’s 11th on the PGA Tour in scoring average tells us that he doesn’t have many bad days, so it’s highly unlikely that he’ll shoot himself out of it over the first couple of rounds. I’m extremely enthusiastic about a red-hot Grace in a 60-man field at a price like 30/1. As a matter of fact, I think I just talked myself into a bigger bet…
David Lingmerth (90.0)- While it’s easy to overlook a guy like Lingmerth in such a star-studded field, those searching for value further down the board may want to consider the young Swede. After all, he finished 6th here last year and picked up his only PGA Tour win at Muirfield Village, a course very similar stylistically to Firestone. And his recent form has been solid, as his 12th-place showing at the U.S. Open was preceded by back-to-back good weeks at The Memorial (T27) and the BMW PGA (T22). A win this week would definitely be the highlight of Lingmerth’s career to this point, and it would certainly be a surprise, but at 90.0 I think he’s worth a shot.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Matt Kuchar (1.91) vs. Jim Furyk (1.91)
Am I the only one who thinks that some people may be overrating Furyk a bit after his runner-up finish at Oakmont? I mean, the guy goes months without being able to swing a club, and in his five non-Oakmont starts since returning he’s missed two cuts and has zero top-20s. Kuchar is as consistent as anyone on Tour, and he’s logged a pair of top-10s and five top-25s in seven career trips to Firestone. Recommendation: Kuchar at 1.91
Hideki Matsuyama (1.91) vs. Charl Schwartzel (1.94)
Firestone is a ball-striker’s delight and Matsuyama is normally one of the best in the world tee-to-green, so it’s no surprise that he has a good record in this event, posting two top-25s in three career appearances. He’s really been struggling lately, though, missing back-to-back cuts and shooting an ugly 78 in his last competitive round, while Scwartzel has been typically solid and steady, racking up seven top-25s and a win in his last nine starts. Recommendation: Schwartzel at 1.94
