DELL MATCH PLAY: One of the most unique events in the world of golf gets underway this week, as the game’s best descend upon Austin Country Club in the heart of Texas for the WGC-Dell Match Play. Not only is this golf’s most high-profile match play tournament outside of the Ryder Cup, but it also features a format that is entirely foreign to the sport– a World Cup-style “group stage” portion followed by a 16-man single-elimination bracket.
The field, which is comprised of the top 64 players in the World Golf Rankings (the exceptions being Henrik Stenson and Jim Furyk, who have been replaced by Patton Kizzire and Thorbjorn Oleson), is split up into sixteen 4-man groups and a “round robin” will take place within the groups, with the four players facing each other over the tournament’s first three days (Wednesday-Friday). One player will emerge from each group and advance to the single-elimination “knockout” stage, which begins on Saturday. Some believe that this format, which was introduced last year, feels a bit forced and contrived, but it’s made the event a veritable bonanza for bettors– we’ll have feasted on a full 96 matches by the time we get to the weekend’s red meat, and BETDAQ will be offering markets for each and every one.
Speaking of markets, Rory McIlroy (11.5) is currently priced as the man to beat, followed closely by world number 1 Jordan Spieth (13.0), Jason Day (15.0), Rickie Fowler (16.0), and Adam Scott (17.0). Spieth in particular will be an interesting one to watch this week– he’s been struggling a bit, failing to log a top-10 since his victory in January’s Hyundai Tournament of Champions, and he didn’t advance beyond the Group Stage in this tournament last year. He went to college right up the road from Austin Country Club, however, so he’s surely played the course dozens of times, and with all the supporters he’ll have out there this week it’s going to feel like a “home game” for him. Plus, the course is relatively short, measuring just over 7,000 yards, and is apparently a shotmaker’s delight (I say “apparently” because our information about Austin Country Club is rather limited– this is the first time it’s hosted a PGA Tour event, so we’ve had to rely on secondhand accounts this week). In other words, it seems like just the type of place where Spieth usually dominates, and I’m sure he’s itching to reestablish himself after the recent gains made by his rivals.
Does that mean I’ll be throwing money at the young Texan at a price like 13.0? No, I think I’ll have to decline. For one, Spieth has been saddled with a tough group that features friend and fellow rising star Justin Thomas, plus two Europeans with lots of match play experience (Victor Dubuisson, Jamie Donaldson). Moreover, though, top seeds just haven’t been wise bets at this event over its history, Rory McIlroy’s triumph last year notwithstanding. The reason is simple to those who know golf: unlike a sport like, say, tennis, the 64th-ranked golfer in the world could beat the top-ranked golfer in the world on any given day. It’s just the nature of the game– because your real competition is a golf course and not an opponent, you cannot physically dominate an opponent or impose your will on the proceedings in the same way that you can in other, more athletically-dependent sports. So my advice is to take the seeding with a grain of salt this week, and maybe avoid the very top of the overall market due to the unpredictable nature of match play. Here’s what I’m thinking…
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Reed (37.0)- Reed is coming off an impressive performance at the Valspar Championship, where he finished 7th on a course that’s very similar stylistically to the one he’ll see this week. That gives him six top-10s in his last ten worldwide starts, a stretch that should leave no doubt about the current state of his game. He took last week off so he’s had a little extra time to prepare, and he’s excelled in match play throughout his career, most prominently on the pressure-packed Ryder Cup stage. His group is fairly manageable, featuring one player who is past his prime (Phil Mickelson) and two others who haven’t yet reached theirs (Matt Fitzpatrick, Daniel Berger). All things considered, I think Reed at 37.0 is a very attractive option this week.
Louis Oosthuizen (41.0)- What are we looking for this week? Well, we want someone who’s playing well at the moment, someone with an excellent match play record, and someone whose game adapts well to the windswept, Bermuda-covered courses of central Texas. Oosthuizen fits the bill on all counts, and unlike the Spieths and McIlroys of the world he’s priced very generously. After tying for 7th at the Valspar Championship, the diminutive South African has now logged five top-15 finishes in his last six PGA Tour starts to go along with his win in last month’s HANDA Perth Invitational, a European Tour co-sanctioned event. He’s advanced to the quarterfinals in this tournament in each of the past two years, and he drew a very favorable group this time around (Andy Sullivan, Bernd Weisberger, Matt Jones). At a price like 41.0, Oosthuizen is my favorite bet on the board this week.
Shane Lowry (92.0)- Lowry hasn’t really made any noise since his 6th-place showing in February’s Phoenix Open, but he’s been chugging along steadily, making all five of his cuts on the PGA Tour this season. He’s proven dangerous in match play, as evidenced by his upset of Rory McIlroy in this event a few years back, and he’s shown the ability to rise to the occasion on the biggest of stages. He’s the type of guy who could make a run all the way to the final if he escapes his group, and fortunately his group is very navigable: top seed Zach Johnson hasn’t been playing his best golf lately, Martin Kaymer is still working through an extended slump, and Marcus Fraser lacks experience in this type of event. Lowry is a bonafide longshot at better than 90/1, but if he gets the putter rolling he could surprise a whole lot a people this week.
GROUP BETTING
Group 8: D. Johnson (2.22), J. Walker (2.98), K. Aphibarnrat (5.0), R. Streb (6.2)
Johnson is a narrow favorite over Walker here, but neither men have had much success in match play settings. That especially holds true for Walker, who has a 1-4 career record in this event and also failed in his lone President’s Cup appearance. Johnson has a disappointing record in this tournament as well (4-7), and he’s been rather quiet this year, contending only at Riviera. The guy I like here is Aphibarnrat, the young Thai star who impressed with his 6th-place finish in last week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational. He proved his match-play mettle with his victory in last year’s Paul Lawrie Match Play, when he ran off six win in a row, and he plays most of his golf on tight, Bermuda-covered courses, so he should be comfortable at Austin Country Club. Plus, the price is right. Recommendation: Aphibarnrat at 5.0
Group 15: B. Snedeker (3.05), C. Schwartzel (2.5), D. Lee (4.6), C. Hoffman (4.9)
Snedeker has a poor record in this tournament and he’s been dealing with a rib injury that has been a serious issue, causing him to withdraw from the WGC-Cadillac Championship three weeks ago and limiting him to just one completed event in the last six weeks. Lee has played terribly this year and Hoffman certainly hasn’t been spectacular, though in fairness his game does seem to be on the uptick. That leaves us with Schwartzel, a world-class talent who just won the Valspar Championship two weeks ago and has been an effective match-play competitor throughout his career, boasting winning records in both this event and the President’s Cup. He’s the class of this group and his price is reasonable. Recommendation: Schwartzel at 2.5
