WGC MATCHPLAY: While it may not be the preferred format of PGA Tour officials or TV executives who have to sweat out the big names making it to the weekend, I think most golf enthusiasts agree that the sport could use more match play events, and this week’s WGC Dell Matchplay is certainly an entertaining way to fill the dead time between the Florida Swing and the Masters.
That’s not to downplay the importance of this tournament– these WGC events have become the biggest non-majors in golf (with the possible exception of the FedEx Cup Playoffs), and the $9.75 million purse ensures that the field won’t suffer too many defections. Indeed, Henrik Stenson and Justin Rose are the only invited players who have chosen to stay home this week, which means 62 of the top 64 in the world rankings will be on hand when play begins on Wednesday. And that’s not a typo– it’s a Wednesday start this week, and those who are lucky enough to make the final match could end up playing as many as 126 holes over five days.
The format is the same as last year, with the 64 players divided up into 16 four-man groups. They will play a round-robin over the first three days, and the winner of each group will advance to a 16-man single-elimination tournament that begins on Saturday morning. Austin Country Club will serve as the host venue for the second consecutive year; it’s a relatively short Pete Dye design that features complex, undulating Bermuda greens and ample trouble off the tee. It’s also known for the strong, swirling winds off Lake Austin, and, somewhat surprisingly for a “short and tight” course, it seems to favor the longer players (if last year’s results are any indication, at least).
Jason Day is the defending champion and he’s won this event twice, so there’s no denying his match play bonafides, but he’s had a rough start to the year and should probably be avoided in the overall market, where he’s currently trading at 17.0. There’s plenty of other A-list talent to choose from, and there are a couple of longshots who may be worth a look as well. Here’s a few recommendations for the Group Stage, followed by a couple of suggestions for the outright market:
Group Play
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Group 2- Rory McIlroy, Emiliano Grillo, Gary Woodland, Soren Kjeldsen
McIlroy is coming off a brilliant weekend at the Arnold Palmer that saw him race up the leaderboard and finish 4th despite an opening-round 74, and that performance was preceded by a 7th-place showing at the WGC-Mexico. In other words, he’s heating up and is primed for a big week. His match play prowess in well known and he made a deep run in this event last year, escaping group play and advancing to the semifinal before running into eventual champion Day. Grillo and Kjeldsen have combined for one top-25 in ten PGA Tour starts this season, so Rory’s main competition here will likely come from Woodland, a solid player but someone who’s simply not on the same level as McIlroy. While Rory’s price in the outright market is a little short for my taste, I’m all over him here. Recommendation: McIlroy at 1.75
Group 6- Justin Thomas, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Kevin Na, Chris Wood
Thomas is the favorite here, which is understandable considering his impressive run over the past couple of months. He’s cooled off a bit though, missing the cut in three of his past five starts, and he really struggled with Austin Country Club last year, losing all three of his matches. Wood was winless in three matches last year as well and Na has hit a rough patch, missing back-to-back cuts and shooting 77 in his last competitive round. That leaves Fitzpatrick, who at least managed a win in this tournament last year and is playing well at the moment, finishing 16th in Mexico and 13th in Bay Hill last week. He’s a good value at almost 5/2. Recommendation: Fitzpatrick at 3.45
Group 9- Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka, Kevin Kisner, Jason Dufner
Reed has cultivated quite a match play reputation for himself, mostly because of his success in the Ryder Cup, and he escaped his group in this tournament last year before losing to Dustin Johnson in the Round of 16. But he hasn’t been playing too well lately, registering only one top-25 in his past five events and breaking 70 just once in his past eight rounds. Koepka has been even worse, missing four cuts in his past six starts, while Dufner has yet to find the top-10 this season and is just 4-7 in eleven career matches in this tournament. Kisner, though, has been playing some great golf, finishing 10th at Pebble Beach, 11th at the WGC-Mexico, and runner-up at Bay Hill last week. He was just 1-2 in his three matches here last year, but the course seems like a good fit stylistically. Recommendation: Kisner at 3.3
Group 13- Bubba Watson, Thomas Pieters, Scott Piercy, Jhonattan Vegas
Here’s some advice: don’t throw any money at Bubba Watson this week. He’s been absolutely dogging it lately, making just two cuts in his past six starts and finishing no better than 34th in that span. Piercy has had a hard time making cuts as well, while Vegas hasn’t played since his T38 in Mexico and has limited match play experience. Pieters is another guy who doesn’t have an extensive match play record, but he sure did acquit himself nicely in the Ryder Cup last fall and he seems to be on the road to stardom after near-misses at the Genesis Open (T2) and the WGC-Mexico (T5). He’s the class of this group. Recommendation: Pieters at 2.84
WIN MARKET
Jon Rahm (30.0)- Okay, so Rahm has no match play experience as a professional. Fine. He’s never played Austin Country Club in competition. Fine. He’s in a group with Sergio Garcia, who is off to a solid start this season and is known for his match play prowess. Fine, fine, fine. You give me Rahm at 30.0 and I’ll take him, any week on any course. This guy is one of the top ten players in the world as we sit here today. Period. End of story. If you disagree with that statement or think it’s way off base, you simply haven’t been paying attention. It won’t be long before you never see a price like this next to Rahm’s name.
Andy Sullivan (154.0)- Sullivan was a disappointment in this past Ryder Cup but he seemed comfortable at Austin Country Club last year, winning two of his three matches and nearly escaping his group before running into eventual finalist Louis Oosthuizen. He hasn’t played much golf over the past couple of months but he did make an appearance at the WGC-Mexico two weeks ago, registering a 20th-place finish that included a brilliant 2nd-round 65. He had a breakthrough year in 2016 that included top-25s in two majors, and he seems like the fearless type who won’t be intimidated by the deep end of the pool. He has a better chance here than his price would suggest.
