The world’s best gather at Firestone Country Club this week for one last tune-up before the year’s final major. Of course, calling a WGC event a “tune-up” is probably a bit unfair, as 68 of the world’s top 70 players will be in attendance and a $9.25 million purse will be on the line.
World No. 1 Rory McIlroy is the defending champion but unfortunately he’s still out of commission with his ankle injury, leaving Jordan Spieth as the clear favorite this week. Spieth can currently be backed at 7.2 at BETDAQ, but be warned: he really struggled in this event last year, finishing 49th and failing to break 70 in any round. Firestone is a 7,400-yard par 70, so length of the tee certainly makes things a lot easier, and indeed long-ball hitters have dominated this tournament over the past 15 years.
We nearly hit one at last week’s Quicken Loans National, as Troy Merritt played some fabulous golf down the stretch to hold off our top pick Rickie Fowler. It’s been awhile since we nailed an outright winner, so maybe we’re due. Here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Adam Scott (19.0)- Scott started slowly this year after taking several months off following last season, but he’s found his form again, posting top-10 finishes at both the Open Championship and the U.S. Open. He’s had great success at Firestone in the past, winning this event by 4 shots in 2011 and playing well in each of the past two years (T8 in 2014, T14 in 2013). He’ll be on the first page of the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon and I think he’s a great value at nearly 20/1.
Brooks Koepka (52.0)- A breakthrough win for Koepka is coming, there’s no doubt about that, and Firestone seems tailor made for him so I don’t see any reason why it can’t happen this week. Koepka has been playing great golf lately, notching five top-20 finishes in his last six starts, and it’s getting harder and harder to find a weakness in this 25-year old’s game. I mean, he ranks 8th on the PGA Tour in driving distance, 14th in greens in regulation, and 10th in strokes gained putting. I’m no expert, but I’m pretty sure that if you drive it further than most everyone, hit more greens than most everyone, and putt better than most everyone, you’re one of the best players out there. I’ll gladly invest in Koepka at the current price.
Marc Leishman (56.0)- While Leishman’s performance at St. Andrews was certainly eye-opening, it wasn’t out of character for the 31-year old Aussie who seems to play his best when it matters most. He’s now notched back-to-back top-5 finishes at the Open and three consecutive top-10 finishes in WGC events, including a 3rd-place finish at this very tournament last year. Leishman appeared right at home at Firestone, breaking par in all four rounds, and he surely comes in with loads of confidence this week after the near-miss at St. Andrews. If he gets his putter going, Leishman will have as good a chance as anybody.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Henrik Stenson (1.91) vs. Hideki Matsuyama (1.91)
Matsuyama is among the most consistent players in the world, as the young Japanese star has now strung together 10 consecutive top-25 finishes (!) since his missed cut at February’s Farmer’s Insurance Open. Plus, he’s had success at Firestone over the past two years, finishing 12th here last year and 21st in 2013. Stenson, meanwhile, has only one top-25 in his last five PGA Tour starts. Recommendation: Matsuyama at 1.91
Jim Furyk (1.76) vs. Keegan Bradley (1.91)
Bradley is a past champion here but he hasn’t played particularly well lately, claiming more missed cuts (2) than top-20 finishes (1) over his last ten events. Furyk, on the other hand, continues to be a veritable golfing ATM machine, with four top-5 finishes in his last eight starts, including the win at Harbour Town. And Furyk always plays well at Firestone, finishing 15th here last year, 9th in 2013, and 2nd in 2012. Recommendation: Furyk at 1.76
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