Andy Murray (1.29) vs. Milos Raonic (4.3)
WIMBLEDON MEN’S FINAL: Though it doesn’t quite carry the weight of the Murray/Federer final that almost happened, Sunday’s match on Centre Court between Andy Murray and Milos Raonic is a pivotal moment in the careers of both men and will likely be more competitive than many believe.
Raonic, seeded sixth this week, is a 25-year old Canadian playing in his first career Grand Slam final. I’ve spent the last day reading and listening to all manner of sports commentators casually dismissing his chances, making it sound as if Murray is simply superior in all facets and needs only to remain upright in order to walk off with the trophy. I say “sports commentators” instead of “tennis commentators” for a reason– truth is, many of those sharing their “expert” opinions have never seen Milos Raonic play a set of tennis and wouldn’t recognize him if he was sitting on the next barstool. They’re probably unaware that Raonic has beaten Murray three times in nine career attempts, and that the last time they met in a Grand Slam– the semifinals of this year’s Australian Open– Raonic had the Scot on the ropes, ahead two sets to one, before Murray dug deep and won a stirring 5-setter.
Or what about last month at Queen’s Club, remember that? I’ve seen passing references to Raonic “making it competitive” at Queen’s, but that’s not quite an accurate description, is it? If I remember correctly, Murray dropped the first set in the best-of-three match and then found himself in a 3-0 hole in set number two. I’d say that’s closer to “miraculous comeback by Murray” than “Raonic keeping it competitive”.
And I certainly don’t have anything but respect and admiration for Andy Murray’s game; after all, we tipped him at 4.4 in our tournament preview. He’s a better all-around player than Raonic, and he’s clearly on-form and focused at the moment. He does have a dreadful 2-8 career record in Grand Slam finals, but this will be the first time he’s entered a final as the higher seed and betting favorite. He’s reunited with coach Ivan Lendl, under whom he’s played his best tennis, and lately he’s looked very much like the world’s best player not named Novak Djokovic. Fair or not (I contend not), he’s enhanced his reputation to a point where losing to Raonic on Sunday would be considered by many an epic choke job on par with Lendl’s inexplicable loss to Pat Cash in the ’87 final.
And that’s what has me worried. Make no mistake: Raonic is playing with house money here, while Murray is under tremendous pressure to deliver. That may not be such a problem were it not for the extremely competitive history between the two, or the fact that Raonic is playing the best tennis of his career and has one of the best serves in the sport. He’s shown the ability to push Murray around for stretches, and things could get very interesting on Sunday if Murray begins to show any cracks while on serve.
It’s “gut check” time for the Scot, and it won’t be easy. He seems like he’s made of sterner stuff these days, though, and I envision him pulling it out in an emotional 5-setter. BETDAQ’s price for such a scenario is very fair, in my humble opinion.
Recommendation: Murray at 1.29; Murray 3-2 (sets) at 5.9
