WORLD CUP FRIDAY: The Ultra previews Friday’s quarter final games in the World Cup between CROATIA v BRAZIL and NETHERLANDS v ARGENTINA both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
CROATIA V BRAZIL
3pm After all the controversy coming into the World Cup in Qatar, you have to admit the action on the pitch has been superb. We’ve had a huge amount of drama, skill and just pure entertainment so far! We kick off the Quarter-Finals on BETDAQ Betting Exchange with two cracking fixtures on Friday. We start the day with Croatia taking on Brazil, and you have to say the draw couldn’t have worked out any better for Brazil. They had an easy time of things against South Korea, they were 4-0 up by half-time and were able to take it easy from there. Neymar returned without stress after being out for two games, and most of the debate was around their dancing rather than their impressive football. They meet Croatia here who had to go through extra time and penalties to beat Japan, and at the moment it just looks the perfect route through for Brazil. They come into this game as the heavy favourites – currently trading 1.43 at the time of writing – and to be honest it’s hard to see past a Brazil win here. Even though they lost their final Group game to Cameroon when they were certain of top spot anyway, Brazil haven’t put a foot wrong. They were exceptionally unlucky in that fixture too; they finished with an xG of 3.13 and just got a late sucker punch to lose the game. Their total xG so far at the World Cup is 11.11 which is exceptionally impressive.
Not only have Brazil been superb going forward, they haven’t been giving away chances either. Their total xG conceded is only 2.29. They have yet to concede an xG of over 1 in any game, but you also have to consider that they haven’t been fully tested. Serbia, Switzerland, Cameroon and South Korea are all decent sides, but they are far away from elite level. Croatia have done well to reach this stage, but their football just hasn’t even been close to Brazil. They were exceptionally lucky to get through with a 0-0 draw against Belgium – they conceded an xG of 3.22 and were just lucky Lukaku had his worst game in a Belgium shirt in front of goal. Again against Japan, they conceded a bigger xG than they created and were totally outplayed in the first half. You have to give them credit for battling hard for a draw and then eventually winning on penalties but it’s hard to see how they can stop Brazil here. Belgium weren’t even playing that well heading into the Croatia game and they got loads of chances – with Brazil firing and Croatia conceding that many chances, I can only see one way traffic here. Brazil should get through to the Semi-Finals and they are worth a Max Bet at 1.43.
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Brazil to beat Croatia at 1.43 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CroBra
NETHERLANDS V ARGENTINA
7pm Next we have Netherlands taking on Argentina, and this is a real game to get excited about. Argentina come into the game as the big favourites, but they aren’t trading odds on – they are currently 2.26 at the time of writing. Both sides came through the Last 16 quite comfortably with Netherlands beating USA 3-1 and Argentina beating Australia 2-1. To be honest the draw was kind to both, and they were expected to win those games. Both sides have had setbacks in the tournament at the Group stage, but you’d have to say that this is the first time that they will be truly tested. There’s a lot of questions to be answered here, and we have a very exciting game on our hands. On paper, it looks like Netherlands have had a nice run through in the World Cup so far but if you look at the under-lining numbers they tell a completely different story. I have to say looking at everything, I can only see one winner here. The 2.28 on Argentina is going to be very hard to get away from! Looking at the xG figures, it’s clear that Netherlands have yet to fire at this World Cup. The only thing I would say about them is that they have bags of talent, we usually see a lot of goals in their games, but they just haven’t been creating a lot. Their xG figures going forward have been 1.31, 0.11, 1.72 and 1.80. They had a reasonably easy Group too with Senegal, Ecuador and Qatar in it, and then actually conceded a bigger xG figure than they created against the USA.
Their total xG created is 4.94 while they have conceded 4.68. Compare this to the Argentina numbers and it’s night-and-day in the different. Argentina have created a total xG of 8.4 while only conceding 1.33. For all that Argentina have so much talent going forward, the strength of this side is actually at the back. I would say they’ve probably played marginally better opposition than the Netherlands too, but there really isn’t much in it. Argentina have fully controlled their games, and it will be interesting to see can the Netherlands create much against them when they don’t come into the game with very impressive performances. It’s clear that Louis van Gaal has been settling up the Netherlands trying to be very solid at the back – they did concede a lot of goals previously but I feel that has also come at a cost of their attacking flare. I just feel the Netherlands are there for the taking coming into this game, and the way Argentina have controlled their games I can only see one winner here. I would have Messi and Co odds on to win here, and I’m very happy to have a Max Bet on Argentina at 2.28 – it’s simply too big to ignore!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Argentina to beat Netherlands at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/NetArg
