WORLD CUP FRIDAY: The Ultra previews Friday’s final set of World Cup Group round games between GHANA v URUGUAY, SOUTH KOREA v PORTUGAL, CAMEROON v BRAZIL, SERBIA v SWITZERLAND all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
GHANA V URUGUAY
3pm It’s the final day of the Group stage at the World Cup on BETDAQ Betting Exchange on Friday! Group G and H are down for decision, and we have identical situations in both Groups. Remarkably, even the goal difference is the same in every position! Brazil and Portugal lead the way on six points, with Switzerland and Ghana both second and then Cameroon, Serbia, South Korea and Uruguay all have work to do. We kick the day off in Group H as Ghana face Uruguay. Ghana had a crazy game against South Korea earlier in the week, they took a 2-0 lead into half-time, then it went 2-2 and then they scored the winner. Dramatic doesn’t even cover the description, but they were a little lucky because they conceded an xG higher than two so South Korea could have scored more. It’s fair to say that it would be a surprise if Uruguay didn’t win here – indeed they are the odds on favourites – but Uruguay haven’t hit form yet at this World Cup. They lost 2-0 to Portugal last time out, and they just didn’t get going at all against South Korea. On paper they have a very exciting squad, but I’m not sure I’d be rushing to back them at 1.78 here considering they haven’t scored yet.
When you look at the Uruguay squad, they have so many exciting players but it just hasn’t worked out for them. They only managed an xG of 0.68 against South Korea, and while they will say they were unlucky looking at the xG figures against Portugal, an xG of 1.43 v 1.32 doesn’t exactly jump off the page. Basically Portugal took their chances and Uruguay didn’t. They simply have to improve in front of goal, and I’m happy to stay away from the match odds here. Ghana aren’t a side I want to support – they were very poor at the AFCON and while they have been involved in two dramatic 3-2 games they have conceded a higher xG figure twice now. I’d lean towards Uruguay winning obviously, but not at the odds. A draw would be good enough for Ghana here with Portugal expected to beat South Korea, so surely we won’t see five goals this time around! I think Ghana will be very negative here to try and get a draw, and with Uruguay struggling to create chances I like Under 2.5 goals at 1.9.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.9 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GhaUru
SOUTH KOREA V PORTUGAL
3pm Next we have South Korea v Portugal, Ronaldo has taken all the headlines for Portugal so far at this World Cup, but it has mainly been for negative reasons. His reaction to not getting credited the goal against Uruguay was hilarious in fairness. Although Ronaldo is always going to attract the headlines, Portugal have been quietly playing well. You’d have to say that they are going under the radar at the moment with the 3-2 win over Ghana not creating much fuss. You’d have to say that they are in an excellent position in the sense that all the pressure is off them heading into the knockout stage. It looks like they should reach the Quarter-Finals quite easily, and from there who knows what can happen. They have a hugely talented squad if they can put it all together, and for all that Ronaldo is selfish he still has the talent to turn any game on its head. With the goal difference situation in Group H, Portugal are almost certain of top spot bar some amazing scenes today so they might take the chance to rest a few players here. There’s no need to rest Ronaldo given he hasn’t been playing for United, but they could opt to rest Bruno for example who, at the moment anyway, has been one of the stars of this World Cup. If he can keep playing at this level it will give Portugal a great chance of going deep into the tournament.
For this game, you’d have to expect Portugal to get the job done here. They are an appealing bet at 1.68 but we also have to consider the fact that they might opt to rest players here. For that reason, I’ll be keeping stakes reasonably small. South Korea have no choice but to go for it here and attacking to win the game, that might open the game up and give Portugal plenty of chances. South Korea played out a very boring 0-0 with Uruguay but the game against Ghana was very end-to-end – it’s hard to fully know what’s coming from South Korea but I do feel we’ll see an open game here with their likely tactics. As I said, they have no other choice but to attack. Portugal might be without a few stars here because of the Group situation, but Over 2.5 goals is worth a small investment at 1.85. This could be a very entertaining game.
The Ultra Says:
One point win Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/KorPor
CAMEROON V BRAZIL
7pm We move over to Group G to finish the day, and indeed finish the whole Group stage! Tournament favourites Brazil are in action against Cameroon. Everything has pretty much gone to plan for Brazil so far at this World Cup, they have controlled both games and haven’t conceded a goal. It was a reasonably slow start against Serbia, but when they stepped up a gear in the second half they put that game to bed quite easily. Switzerland didn’t do too badly against them, landing our Under 2.5 goals bet, but ultimately running out 1-0 winners. It’s fair to say that they haven’t been fully tested yet, but they have only conceded xG figures of 0.22 and 0.42 in their opening two games which is very impressive. Everyone was raving about Brazil because of the attacking talent they have, but they have also been rock solid at the back. I’m not going to get carried away yet because they haven’t been tested in my opinion, tougher challenges will lie ahead but the signs so far are good and it’s easy to understand why they have moved in at the head of the market. They are fully expected to win this game looking at the market – currently trading as short as 1.3 at the time of writing.
It’s hard to see past a Brazil win here, but I wouldn’t be rushing to take the 1.3. Cameroon played out a very entertaining 3-3 draw with Serbia, coming from 3-1 down to claim a draw and their xG figure wasn’t bad either. They were outplayed by Switzerland however, so you’d have to expect Brazil to out-class them here. At the same time, with Brazil pretty certain of top spot in the Group already it’s hard to make the case that they should be much shorter than 1.3. I expect them to be a very popular selection in any Betdaq Multiple, but I think we’ll find better value than 1.3 elsewhere. Cameroon have to attack here and go for the hail-mary win given their position in the Group. Not only do they need to win, they also need Switzerland to lose and then by not too much because Serbia will have the same amount of points as them. Their chances are extremely slim, but you only get one chance at the World Cup so you have to go for it. I’d expect an open and entertaining game because of the Cameroon tactics, and that could actually result in plenty of Brazil goals here. I’m not going to get too carried away however, Over 2.5 goals is a nice position at 1.68 – I also see Brazil possibly scoring plenty so Any Other Away Win might be worth backing at around 4.0 in the Correct Score market.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.68 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CamBra
SERBIA V SWITZERLAND
7pm We finish the evening with Serbia meeting Switzerland, and you don’t need me to tell you this is a huge game for both sides. Although Cameroon have a very small chance of qualifying, everyone expects Brazil to win here so this game is basically to decide who finishes second. Switzerland come into the game with an edge having beaten Cameroon while Serbia had to accept a draw. That gives Switzerland the luxury of being happy with a draw here, and although Serbia have to chase a win here it’s hard to see this game being too open. When you look at these two sides it’s hard to see them gelling together well for an entertaining game. Both sides would have been expected to lose to Brazil, and when you looked at the fixture list pre-tournament you would have said this was the fixture to decide second. Switzerland are in the box seat in that sense, and they have also played better football than Serbia. I was surprised to see Serbia trading as favourites when I clicked into the market. We have a very open betting heat, which isn’t a surprise, but I don’t agree with Serbia being the favourites.
At the time of writing, Serbia are trading 2.66 and Switzerland 2.96. I would definitely have the sides priced a little closer together in the market. I know Switzerland can play for a draw here so perhaps the market is factoring in the likely negative tactics, but Serbia haven’t been playing well enough to justify the odds here in my opinion. As I said previously in this World Cup, Serbia topped their qualifying Group in the most dramatic circumstances but really and truly it should have been Portugal if they didn’t fluff their lines. Switzerland have been playing some very good football in the Nations League this year, and they haven’t put a foot wrong in the tournament to date. You can easily forgive them a close loss against Brazil, and I feel that they can get a result here. I want to have the draw on our side too, so a Serbia lay looks a very nice option at 2.66 to finish the Group stage.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Serbia to beat Switzerland at 2.66 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SerSwi
