WORLD CUP SUNDAY: The Ultra previews Sunday’s knockout games in the World Cup between FRANCE v POLAND and ENGLAND v SENEGAL both including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
FRANCE V POLAND
3pm We have another huge day at the World Cup on Sunday as we continue the Last 16 on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s a massive day for England fans as they face Senegal later, but we kick the day off with France taking on Poland. We have two big odds on favourites on Sunday, but it’s France that are the shortest price. They are fully expected to win by the market here – trading 1.33 at the time of writing. Although they lost their final Group game 1-0 to Tunisia, they had the luxury of resting most of their star men as they were pretty much certain of topping the Group bar amazing scenes. Australia actually ended up finishing level on points with them in Group D but because of the goal difference situation it was an easy decision for Deschamps to rest players. It was a very boring game actually without many chances – the xG figures finished 0.34 (Tunisia) and 0.65 (France) but with all the changes I wouldn’t read too much into that game. I’d prefer to focus on their opening two performances and they were immense. They were the best attacking performances in the opening two games before Argentina put in a big xG figure against Poland in their final Group game. France created an xG of 4.59 v Australia and then 2.95 v Denmark. Not only do they have a tonne of attacking talent in their squad, they are putting it together too on the pitch – you can’t say that they haven’t arrived into the World Cup firing.
Poland fans will be hoping that France have peaked too soon, but the reality is they will need a sub-standard performance from France here to get through. Poland have been pretty average – it was always likely to be a goal difference situation after their draw with Mexico, and they almost lost out too, Mexico had a great opportunity to boost their goal difference against Saudi Arabia but didn’t take their chances. Poland have been very leaky at the back – obviously the xG conceded to Argentina was high at 3.72 but probably more worrying was the 2.25 they conceded against Saudi Arabia. With France one of the best attacking sides so far at this World Cup, I think we’ll see plenty of goals here. Rather than go into the goals market though, I prefer France on the Handicap. Over 2.5 goals is 1.91, but France -1.5 goals is the same price and I feel that offers way more value. I couldn’t even put anyone off France -2.5 goals at 3.5 which looks a very nice price too – however it’s the 1.5 goals bet which will be my best bet to kick off Sunday.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win France -1.5 goals to beat Poland at 1.91 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/FraPol
ENGLAND V SENEGAL
7pm This is the game everyone will be focused on in the UK as England meet Senegal. England will be expected to win here, but if you’re in any way superstitious then you won’t enjoy knowing this game is live on ITV! The ITV v BBC record is actually remarkable for England. It’s 12 wins from 16 games on BBC and only two wins from 15 games on ITV. Will the ITV curse strike again? Curses aside, Senegal will be a big test for England. Since losing their opening game 2-0 to Netherlands they haven’t put a foot wrong. Of course they were always likely to beat Qatar, but they were very professional when beating Ecuador in the game that decided who finished second. They finished that game with an xG of 2.38 and controlled the game – even in the loss to Netherlands they did hang on until the 84th minute before going behind. They are likely to be very cagey here, and that could easily cause England problems – they didn’t create much against the USA and they could have the same issues here. However, England fans will be confident after Southgate changed things around after the USA. That had an instant effect with Foden and Rashford the stars of the show in the 3-0 win over Wales. They completely dominated that game, the only thing you would say is Wales clearly weren’t at their best coming to the tournament and they didn’t fire in it either. Make no mistake, this is England’s biggest test so far.
Casual football fans will just assume this will be an easy win for England, but there will be plenty of football traders keen to lay them at 1.57. Senegal are rock solid at the back, and if England don’t make an early breakthrough you can easily see a very cagey game here. England have been rock solid at the back themselves though, and Under 2.5 goals makes a lot of appeal here at 1.67. It’s hard to argue England should be shorter than their current 1.57 – I feel that’s a fair reflection of their chances and I much prefer Under 2.5 goals at ten ticks bigger. While Senegal saw a lot of action in their last two games, they will very likely employ the same approach as they took against the Netherlands here and we really didn’t see much action until the final minutes there. England probably need an early goal to settle nerves and get Senegal out of their shell, but if that doesn’t come I could easily see a 0-0 here. If England don’t get the job done, everyone will surely blame the ITV curse but I can see this being a difficult evening for England. Unders looks the best play at the odds.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.67 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/EngSen
