WORLD CUP WEDNESDAY: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s four World Cup games between MOROCCO v CROATIA, GERMANY v JAPAN, SPAIN v COSTA RICA and BELGIUM v CANADA all including a recommended BETDAQ bet.
MOROCCO V CROATIA
10am Day Four at the World Cup has something for everyone on BETDAQ Betting Exchange! We have very heavy favourites, interesting markets and plenty of debate as to whether to back or lay prices. Most of the days talking points will focus around Germany, Spain and Belgium who all play later, but we have our most “open” market of the day in the first game as Morocco meet Croatia in Group F. It’s only an open market compared to the other ones today, because we still have a big favourites. Croatia are currently trading 1.96 to get the job done here at the time of writing. They reached the World Cup Final in 2018 but they have really failed to build on that success – one might say that was a dream run for them and they over-performed massively, but you’d still expect them to progress after that. They went backwards, and there were a lot of question marks about their aging side. They somewhat returned to form when winning their Nations League Group this time around, but they hugely benefitted from France being under par and they managed to beat Denmark at home and away to top the Group. I would suggest the jury is still out on them and wouldn’t get too carried away from that Nations League Group. Let’s not forget they lost 3-0 at home to Austria within that Group, it was just bizarre because France were so poor.
Whether or not Morocco can actually test them is the big question here, and I’m sure we’ll have some big opinions on the Croatia price at 1.96 on either side of the book. Whether or not you believe they have turned their fortunes around with the Nations League, they have become a low scoring team. They have a world class midfield headlined by Luka Modric, but they still struggle up front and possibly at the back too. I would expect Morocco to be very negative with their tactics here, and it will be up to Croatia to make the running. Morocco hit the ‘panic button’ if you like by changing manager in the months leading up to this World Cup, what that meant is a more settled side and players have returned from international exile too. They obviously have good form in Africa, but I’m not going to fully commit to the Croatia lay here. I much prefer Under 2.5 goals at around 1.7 – Croatia lack a real goal scorer and Morocco would be happy with a draw here – this could be a dull game to start the day.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.7 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/MorCro
GERMANY V JAPAN
1pm Next we move to Group E as we get our first look at Germany when they take on Japan. Group E is definitely one of the more interesting Groups with Germany and Spain clashing, however it’s highly likely that fixture will just decide who finishes first or second. Germany had a few setbacks in the Nations League this year, especially losing to Hungary which came as a big surprise. Their “new” manager Hansi Flick had put together a 13 game unbeaten run after taking over when Germany crashed out of Euro 2020 at the Last 16 stage. I still feel Germany are a team going through a transitional period but we might not learn too much against Japan and Costa Rica. We will learn a lot about this German side when they meet Spain in this Group, and then later on as they will be fully expect to get past the Group stage. Japan come into this tournament looking a very average side. They lost to Oman and Saudi Arabia in qualifying but they could have still topped the Group they were in if it wasn’t for a draw with Vietnam on the final qualifying matchday. From the tournament previews I have read online, it seems the public aren’t happy with the management and it seems that they don’t have an attacking system that suits the players. It’s always hard to fully know what the media are saying that side of the world, but they do look lacking in front of goal.
The general feeling about Japan is that they set out to defend, and it seems obvious that’s what they will do here. Perhaps if Germany score early then they will open up, but I would expect Japan to put XI men behind the ball here. In fairness, they should beat Costa Rica so all they need is to draw against Germany or Spain to possibly get into the next round. That will be their aim, but I still feel Germany will have too much class here. Germany have had a few setbacks this year, so I’m going to control my stakes on them rather than have a Max Bet but the 1.51 looks too big to ignore here. Japan really don’t create much, and although most of their fans seem to think they are capable of better up front, we’ve yet to see that. Germany generally play an open game and create lots of chances, I feel they will simply outscore Japan here – they will definitely see most of the ball anyway and while the Hungary and England results do knock confidence, three points at 1.51 is a nice play.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Germany to beat Japan at 1.51 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/GerJap
SPAIN V COSTA RICA
4pm We stay in Group E as Spain meet Costa Rica. Spain will be fully expected to win this game, indeed they are trading the joint-shortest price of any side to win in the Group stage at the time of writing. They are very short at odds of 1.18, but they will likely be a banker for any Betdaq Multiple this week. Costa Rica are a very weak side, and it’s more of a case of how many goals will Spain score rather than will they win in my opinion. With Spain so short in the match odds market, we’re going to have to look around the side markets in search of some value. The CONCACAF qualifying is pretty weak, and Costa Rica only finished fourth in the playoff spot. They were then a little lucky to beat New Zealand in that playoff, which is clearly a very low level. For example the sides that finished below them in qualifying were Panama, Jamaica, El Salvador and Honduras. They did finish level on points with the USA, but you have to admit there should really only be four sides in that top four of which Costa Rica finished bottom really. They were involved in a lot of low scoring games, and I would suggest they’ll have very negative tactics here.
The aim for Costa Rica will be a 0-0 draw, I really don’t see them creating too much. Spain will have a lot of the ball too, and given they have so much attacking talent on the pitch I expect a comfortable Spanish win here. This Spain side is actually very exciting on paper, and it will be interesting to see how they get on against Germany later on. Despite a reasonably young side, they do have plenty of experience thanks to Euro 2020 and the Nations League recently too. I felt we’d see Over 2.5 goals trading much shorter than the current 1.71 and that has to be a Max Bet for me at the odds. I know it’s basically a bet for Spain to score three times given the low level of Costa Rica, but Spain to cover the 2.5 goal handicap is 2.42 which is also an appealing bet. I was aiming to get on Spain to cover the handicap here, but that Over 2.5 goals bet is too big to ignore. Spain should score three here, plus you have the added chance of Costa Rica finding the net at some stage. Overs is a very confident bet, the first Max Bet of the World Cup!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.71 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SpaCos
BELGIUM V CANADA
7pm We move back to Group F to finish the day as Belgium play Canada. Both these sides will have been watching the earlier game between Morocco and Croatia to see where they stand. It’s fair to say everyone will expect Belgium to top this Group and possible Croatia in second, but I could see Croatia struggling at some stage. It will likely come down to goal difference. Belgium are usually different gravy in qualifying and fluff their lines in the bigger games – I would expect them to breeze through the Group stage and possibly run into difficultly later on. They have a wealth of talent in their squad at the moment – they’ll probably never have a stronger squad but they are aging. There’s definitely question marks outside of Kevin de Bruyne. Surely you have to wonder how fit Romelu Lukaku and Eden Hazard will be heading into this tournament? Both absolutely superb on their day, but both also have huge question marks hanging over them. We’ll just have to wait and see how things pan out for them – the best thing they can do is win this Group because then they have the runners up of either Spain and Germany; probably likely Germany which will be the easier draw.
Canada topped CONCACAF qualifying and they have been known to be rock solid at the back. They will fancy their chances of getting results against Morocco and Croatia, so their aim here will be a draw. They can also try to take advantage of Belgium at the back, as their defence is on the older side – it’s definitely their last World Cup. I think Belgium have enough class to get the job done here, but I don’t like their price at 1.49. It’s hard to argue that they should be shorter, 1.4 would feel massively too short against a solid side like Canada. Obviously CONCACAF is a pretty average level, so I’m going to keep stakes small here but I expect Belgium to grind out a 1-0 or 2-0 win with Canada not giving them many chances. I would expect Belgium to trade higher in-running for a trade, but Under 2.5 goals looks a nice outright bet at 2.1. I was really surprised to see it trading odds against – I know Belgium like to play an open game but I just don’t see Canada doing that – I think they’ll have XI men behind the ball here and play for a draw. 2.1 is a nice value price to end the day.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 2.1 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BelCan
