SATURDAY’S DERBY ABC: After 43.0 in the Oaks about Anipa, Daqman’s ABC guide to the stats and facts for Saturday’s Derby has turned up another with over-the-top BETDAQ value at 36.0, alongside bookmaker quotes as low as 14-1.
IT’S GOT THE PLUS FACTOR: With torrential rain forecast for Derby Day, it’s inevitable that Daqman has added a ‘plus factor’ (+) for those colts which are already winners on soft ground.
EPSOM VALUE CHALLENGE: Daqman signed off the big-races 53 wins ahead of Pricewise (74-21), leading 35-9 on the Flat. Check out the Daqman Library on the icon for full details.. and look out at Epsom tomorrow!
150% ROMSDAL DERBY BONUS ON BETDAQ
A: Won 1m 2f or placed Guineas or Dante (18/20)
B: Ran in last five weeks 18/20)
C: Won a Group race (16/20)
D: Sire’s stamina index 9.8 or more (15/20)
E: Two to five career starts (15/20)
F: Rated 108-121 (15/20, some notional)
+ Has won on soft ground
ABCDEF Australia
He gets a clean sweep of the stats, and Newmarket 2,000 Guineas form supports him: Kingman, a head in front when they were second and third, has won the Irish equivalent, with the fourth horse up into second, and 10th home, The Grey Gatsby, winning the French Derby on Sunday.
Superbly bred, by a Derby winner out of an Oaks winner – Galileo and Ouija Board – Australia is, or was, reckoned by Aidan O’Brien ‘the best horse I’ve trained’. But see my Wednesday column in the Archive. And watch him drift from odds on.
ABCDE+ Orchestra
Also from Ballydoyle, another Galileo, this one out of a Danehill mare. Handled turning track at Chester well when pipping Romsdal in the Vase, the pair clear.
An imposing individual, regarded as O’Brien’s second string until the money came for Geoffrey Chaucer. Rain will suit.
ABCEF Ebanoran
Stamina packed on the dam’s side; half-sister to two Gold Cup winners, she won the Irish Oaks and the French Leger. Sire Oasis Dream got Midday.
Wandered, green under pressure, and lost the Leopardstown Derby Trial in the Stewards’ Room. Geoffrey Chaucer was third.
ABCEF+ Fascinating Rock
Mixed signals from his pedigree. Perhaps fortunate to steal the Leopardstown Derby Trial, but it was a day Dermot Weld could do no wrong, making a clean sweep of the Group races on the card.
Travels well, quickens well, and the sire gets a higher percentage of winners on good-to-soft ground.
ABDEF Arod
Here’s one who definitely needs faster ground. Doubtful this Teofilo will get the trip on soft.
From an enigmatic trainer but the stable completed the Dante-Derby double with Authorized. Arod just missed out on the Dante to The Grey Gatsby, French Derby winner wince.
ABDEF True Story
In fact, the Dante looked a dead duck after the odds-on defeat of True Story (third), greatly hyped before and after his seven-lengths Fielden Stakes romp. But he’s somewhat resurrected by The Grey Gatsby’s surging win at Chantilly.
ABDE+ Pinzolo By Monsun out of a Barathea mare, and named after an Alpine ski resort, he beat Red Galileo in the Haynes, Hanson and Clark on soft and came back to form at Newmarket this term on top of the ground. But he was allowed to make all in a small field.
ABDE Romsdal
This son of Halling, out of a half-sister to an Irish and Yorkshire Oaks winner, didn’t see a racecourse until March, but almost caught Orchestra in the Chester Vase after being hampered.
Orchestra was 18.5 on BETDAQ when I checked out the orange but Romsdal, 14-1 in a place with bookmakers, was 36.0. That’s 150% better on the Daq.
ABDE+ Sudden Wonder
A New Appropach but otherwise not greatly connected. Still green and running on at the end of the Lingfield Derby Trial, third to Snow Sky.
ABDF Snow Sky
No hope of catching Western Hymn at Newbury in April but came on nearly a stone from that to take the Lingfield Derby Trial. Sire gets good but not great horses. A lot of stamina on the dam’s side.
ABD+ Kingfisher
Looked a nearly horse, beaten by both Australia and Fascinating Rock, and Joseph O’Brien and I (note the name dropping) seem to be alone in our epithet ‘a lovely horse, and a faster pace will suit’ after his Dee Stakes success. By Galileo out of a Halling mare, and has won on soft, though said to prefer a sound surface.
ACDE+ Western Hymn
The only unbeaten horse in this Derby. Impressive defeat of Snow Sky at Newbury before taking the Sandown Classic Trial. Not a great head carriage and wouldn’t want it too soft.
AE Our Channel
Winner of the Epsom Derby Trial, collateral form says he is ‘the same horse’ as Snow Sky on a line through Hartnell. That he enjoyed an uncontested lead says little for the form but a lot for his enjoyment of Epsom.
BCDE Geoffrey Chaucer
A workmanlike Montjeu thus far, though a little unlucky when third to the sparring pair, Ebanoran and Fascinating Rock, who disputed the Leopardstown Derby Trial a second time in front of the Stewards. Then came the rumour that he’d beaten Australia in a gallop. Then came the money.
BCEF+ Kingston Hill
A son of Mastercraftsman (The Grey Gatsby’s already won him a Derby this year), Kingston Hill was all the rage for Epsom after winning the Racing Post Trophy, with Gatsby himself seventh and Snow Sky eighth.
Only eighth in the Guineas but needs the Epsom gradients over the full 1m 4f. ‘A beautiful mover with a great cruising speed’ but then Roger Varian would say that, wouldn’t he.
B Red Galileo
Has done nothing much for Pinzolo, who beat him at Newbury last year; fourth in the Sandown Classic Trial to Western Hymn, fifth in the Lingfield Derby Trial to Snow Sky.
DE Impulsive Moment
Those impulsive enough to back him should seize the moment (carpe diem).. and get out now!
But it’s a wide-open Derby whatever they tell you and this Galileo out of a Danehill mare put up a fight against Western Hymn in the Sandown Classic Trial.
LAYERS FALLING FOR ONE AT KEMPTON
It’s been hard work all week. And it will be so disappointing if, after the daily dross, we now have to face an Epsom in the mud. My ‘plus factor’ tries to prepare you for that in the Derby ABC guide.
Hamilton is said to face only showers today on good, good to firm, so there should be some form consistency, none more so to date than Margret’s Gift (2.30), who is well clear on the ratings.
The Racing Post Spotlight describes the mile handicap (3.00) as an unappealing betting medium. You can say that again (ok, ‘an unappealing betting medium’).
This isn’t the Fast Show but it is a quick way to lose your money, and I’ve had to watch my naps total dip before it rights itself at Epsom and gets into big-value gear for Royal Ascot. That’s when I hope to hit 1,000 points profit.
King Of The Danes (3.30) was a Spring horse last year but has had to shed some of his 18lb punishment by the handicapper for that.
He is now within 3lb of his last winning weight. Mark Johnston will press the button any day now, and 12.5 this morning on BETDAQ says we should get on board just in case.
Best Flat race of the day is another mile, class 4 at Southwell, in which Grandest (4.50) could boost John Gosden’s 20% AW strike-rate for the year, back on the course of his December success.
But Mark Johnston bids for a Southwell hat-trick despite his recent rarity of runners there, after Denzille Lane yesterday, and Rainbow Rock looks poised, back on an easier surface, after failing to land a gamble on firm ground at Nottingham.
John Gosden is particularly keen to win with Falling Petals (6.45 Kempton), a daughter of his European-champion miler, Ravens Pass. Two behind her have come out of her debut race at Ascot and won.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 4pts win KING OF THE DANES (3.30 Hamilton)
BET 2.5pts win BARON RUN (4.30 Hamilton)
BET 10pts win RAINBOW ROCK (4.50 Southwell)
BET 14pts win (nap) FALLING PETALS (6.45 Kempton)
BET 10pts win CLUES AND ARROWS (8.40 ffos Las)
BET 5pts win BOUCLIER (9.0 Kempton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 2pts win doubles and a 1pt win treble Margrets Gift (2.30 Hamilton), Falling Petals (6.45 Kempton) and Clues And Arrows (8.40 ffos Las)
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