DAQMAN’S NAP IS THE REAL McCOY: Daqman yesterday took advantage of the genius of Tony McCoy, who drove home his nap, Bob Keown (WON 7-4), in a typical champion drive to the line at Worcester.
9-2 AGAIN FOR 30 POINTS PROFIT: For the second day running, our man was on a 9-2 winner, when Nodform Richard scored, following Carraroe Flyer (from 12.0) on Monday. His profit on the day yesterday was 30 points.
ROYAL ASCOT COUNTDOWN: Daqman combed the Gold Cup card for one which has won on all types of ground, including firm, is the choice of the stats and is a value price. Here’s his answer.
STATS STAR ESTIMATE FOR DOUBLE GOLD
THURSDAY
STATS: The great Gold Cup winners since 1975 have something else in common: all won the race again. They are Sagaro (1975, 76, 77), Le Moss (1979, 80), Ardross (1981, 82), Gildoran (1984, 85), Sadeem (1988, 89), Drum Taps (1992, 93), Kayf Tara (1998, 2000), Royal Rebel (2001, 02) and Yeats (2006-09).
They make up a remarkable 60% of all victories in the 35 years. And we’re overdue for another back-to-back winner. That would be Estimate.
Equally significant is the 50% record of two trainers taken together in the last 20 years: Aidan O’Brien and Saeed Bin Suroor.
O’Brien has the favourite, Leading Light, winner of the Queen’s Vase at the royal meeting last year and subsequent St Leger winner, but only Classic Cliché (1965) in modern racing history has landed the Doncaster-Ascot double.
Similarly, only one French-trained winner (Westerner, 2005) has taken gold since the prolific Sagaro under Lester Piggott in 1977.
BETTING: Generally 7-1, but as low as 6-1 in several places, Estimate is a value 11.0 on BETDAQ to do the double.
FRIDAY
STATS: Only one horse over the age of four won the Diamond Jubilee sprint from 1976 to 1999 when it was called the Cork And Orrerry. But since then, and under its subsequent titles of Golden Jubilee and now Diamond Jubilee, the pendulum has swung to older horses: they are 7-14, a 50% record.
One reason could be the raising of the race to Group-1 status in 2002, another the presence of international sprint stars, such as Black Caviar.
BETTING: Many of these are also engaged in the Kings Stand Stakes. If thunderstorms arrive by this stage of the meeting, then look out for Gordon Lord Byron and Maarek who, in any case, are likely to swerve the firmer ground earlier in the week.
Gordon Lord Byron, 10.5 on BETDAQ was 8-1 among the big five bookies. Maarek, as short as 10-1, including with Ladbrokes, is around 18.5 on BETDAQ.
THE NORTH / SOUTH DIVIDE
CHECK THE GOING BEFORE PLACING A BET: It’s soft at Hamilton and good to firm at Yarmouth. Hard to think that both courses are in the UK (subject of course to the Scottish independence referendum).
Beverley Going : Good to Soft, Soft in places
Haydock Park Going : Soft
Yarmouth Going : Good to Firm
Hamilton Park Going : Soft
I stress it time and time again but the going is the single most important factor to consider before placing a bet.
I’m going to be working extra hard over the next couple of weeks to find you some winners. With the World Cup the pressure on horse racing’s share of the betting pound/Euro is going to be more intense than ever.
But fear not – Daqman and Royal Ascot will be fighting back and flying the horse racing flag high !!
Talking of the World Cup – you can’t look beyond BETDAQ. To quote a famous High Street store. “This isn’t just a World Cup offer. This is a BETDAQ World Cup offer….”
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0% Commission on all matches that finish Nil-Nil
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If that doesn’t tempt you at Brazil nothing will. But before Brazil, Beverley……
The testing conditions look good for Mitchell in the 13 runner handicap at 4.50.
It was only a seller that he won at Redcar last time out but it did come over similar conditions and trip as today and a rise of three pounds in the official handicap doesn’t look too harsh. He’s shown good form in non handicaps on soft ground too including when third to Hab Reeh at Newcastle in April. The draw position of 2 isn’t as kind, although in recent years the Beverley advantage is no where near as pronounced as it once was.
He’s currently trading as favourite on BETDAQ at 7.2 which signifies how open this race is.
Tagtale looks the answer to the opening claimer with going again being the key angle in.
She was last of 11 on debut at Redcar but then bolted up at Redcar on soft ground next time out when also fitted with blinkers. She disappointed in a seller over six furlongs and on good ground last time but was hampered at the start and that run is best ignored.
Conditions look good for another win today and the current price of 2.8 on BETDAQ makes plenty of appeal. One danger looked to be Penalty Scorer but this one is now a non runner, a bit like England’s penalty scorers 😉
At Yarmouth, Burning The Clocks is a short price for the opener but his promising third on debut came on soft ground and it’s good to firm. He may well be equally as effective but you are paying a short price to find out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 10pts win (nap) TAGTALE (2.20 Beverley)
BET 4pts win MITCHELL (4.50 Beverley)
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