YES! BULL’S EYE AT 7.0 ON BETDAQ: Daqman’s first-day Bull’s-Eye Bet at Royal Ascot (to win 50 points) landed fantastic BETDAQ value. You could have been on Hootenanny (WON 7-2) at 7.0, as declared by Daqman before the gamble.
YES! 38 SCORED OVER PRICEWISE: Daqman and Pricewise both tipped Hootenanny but Daqman also grabbed 10.5 win and place Mubtaghaa (3rd 7-1) to edge in front on the day, taking the Flat-season score to 38-10 in his favour.
YES! KING-SIZE FIRST-DAY BANKER: His 20-point banker was Kingman (WON 8-11), another gamble from odds against on BETDAQ. He also gave the first two (wrong order) in the opening race. His profit on the day was 38.14.
GO FOR THE BIG TIME AT 15.5 ON BETDAQ
2.30 Royal Ascot (Jersey Stakes) I have a bigger mouth than Louis Armstrong! I gave you a lot of jazz about Wednesday being the best day for betting: now I have to put my chips down and find some fish to fry. In fact, it looks a day to get battered!
I went in big with Aidan O’Brien yesterday but it was Charles Byrnes and Edward Lynam who had those Irish eyes smiling, with a brace of top-class training performances. And I fancy another less-fashionable Irish stable today in two races today.
Ballydoyle is on a hat-trick in this opening race of Day 2 and gives itself three chances, though they are pretty tired names by now, with Giovanni Boldini yet to live up to his second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, despite wearing a hood at Naas on the last day.
The hood is off now, as if the lesson has been learned (but has it), and Joseph O’Brien prefers him to Great White Eagle, another disappointment since his Group-3 success last September, and the the Group-3 placed Michaelmas.
David Wachman’s Sudirman was one of the best in Ireland as a two-year-old, winning the Railway Stakes, then the Phoenix. But he, too, has yet to shine in 2014.
As if this is an all-Irish party, you also have to consider the flying Dermot Weld’s Mustajeeb, third in Kingman’s Curragh 2,000, and Big Time, fifth that day and second twice to Sudirman last year when Sudirman was a force..
Muwarry held Giovanni Boldini when fourth in the French 2,000 but the form of the race is only middling, and that also clouds my interest in Alain de Royer-Dupre’s Redbrook.
On collateral form, That is The Spirit, Parbold and Toofi are all a bit behind Aeolus, second to Night Of Thunder as a juvenile and winner of the Sandy Lane. But that opinion is based on softer ground, which Musical Comedy would also prefer.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: If I’m going for the big time, I may as well go for Big Time. Considerng he was, indeed, a big, raw thing as a juvenile, his Group placings were very creditable and his fifth, first run back, in the Irish 2,000 was no bad run on ground he hated. The drier the better.
John Joseph Murphy, 0-47 this Irish Flat season, and only 1-17 in raids on England in five seasons (jockey Shane Foley is 0-14) is the unlikeliest winner of any race right now.
But you can pick five of these and still not have the right one. So, no blarney, this is against all odds, 15.5 on BETDAQ. A man can’t call himself a punter if he doesn’t have a punt now and again!
If the stats have their say, I must be on one in stalls 4, 5, 6 (three times) or 7, which have supplied six of the seven winners since the new Ascot. Sudirman or Muwarry? Muwarry for me (will like the drying ground) over the blinkered Sudirman.
MOONLITE VALUE AT 12.5 FOR QUEEN MARY
3.05 Royal Ascot (Queen Mary Stakes) The winner has usually had between two and four starts (8-10); she’s with a strong trainer of two-year-olds, like Dascombe, Hannon, Gosden; and she’s by a sire of top juvenile fillies.
Tiggy Wiggy, Harry’s Dancer and Ko Cache are all by Kodiac, sire of 90 individual 2yo winners. Anthem Alexander is by the same new sire as The Wow Signal, impressive winner of the Coventry yesterday.
David Elsworth has some good two-year-olds this year and Arabian Queen, a daughter of Dubawi, is a very nice sort, but with a lot of stamina for this.
Wesley Ward, who gave me a beauty of a bull’s-eye yesterday, saddles Spanish Pipedream, with her jockey telling the Racing Post of her Keeneland win: ‘Two strides and she’d gone!’
High-drawn horses made it five in a row in yesterday’s Windsor Castle – first three from 25, 21, 17 – but the low draw does well in this. The answer is usually to split your stake between either side.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Anthem Alexander beat nothing well but, from stall 12, should go with Spanish Pipedream (13), so maybe an arrowhead charge down the middle this year (three-way split?).
The Acclamation filly Dangerous Moonlite appeals at 12.5 on BETDAQ for Ryan Moore, with Richard Hughes apparently loathe to reject her in favour of the more experienced Tiggy Wiggy. Could be a mover. And a shaker.
MAGICIAN COULD BE TOO FAST FOR TREVE
3.45 Royal Ascot (Prince Of Wales’s Stakes) Dank (loves fast ground), The Fugue (working superbly at home) and Arc winner Treve make this a fillies’ and mares’ Classic. But, with the ground swinging in favour of Mukhadram and Magician, the boys could spoil the party.
Arc-winner Treve met a Cirrus Des Aigles at full power when, short of a run, she went down at Longchamp on her return.
They’re knocking her for the ground – her super-treble ending with the Arc was on soft – and she won her first three starts on good, good to soft. They’re knocking her for the trip but it’s only a year ago that she won the French Oaks over today’s sort of distance.
At that time The Fugue was struggling against his arch rival, the front-running Mukhadram (they were second and third in this last year) and, on the form of Leopardstown September, Santa Anita November and The Curragh in May, there is only a wafer between Magician and The Fugue, with Parish Hall just behind.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This is a thriller but, with The Fugue at 10.5 and Magician at 8.0, offers against Treve are far too big on BETDAQ this morning and no wonder, with the orange on 101%, as I write. Yesterday’s bookmaker overrounds included Total SPs at 133 and 130%. You know where the value is at a glance!
5.8 ON BETDAQ WAS BIG FOR ESOTERIQUE
4.25 Royal Ascot (Duke Of Cambridge Stakes) Again, there is virtually a level-playing field for punters, as BETDAQ exchanges tot up to only 102% in the orange this morning, between 10 and 16% better than the bookies’ SP on this in recent years.
The 2013 Newmarket 1,000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes winner at Royal Ascot, Sky Lantern, has to face down this stat: all seven fillies to have carried a Group-1 penalty in this race have been beaten, including such as Soviet Song. It’s gonna be a tough one for her.
She had a length to spare over Integral twice last backend but has to give her 5lb today, which is around a couple of lengths, and Integral has had a run, just held by Esoterique at Newmarket in May.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Sky Lantern has always been better after a run, so, first time out today, I can see Integral coming out on top but her Newmarket rival, Esoterique, a Guineas second last year, has been supplemented and looks big at 5.8, over here for ground preference. I’m dutching them to a reduced profit-yield.
SEA TO WRECK ABSEIL HUNT-CUP GAMBLE
5.00 Royal Ascot (Royal Hunt Cup) Sir Michael Stoute seems to have got this sorted with Abseil, who won his fourth start on the day before the Derby like the proverbial Group horse in a handicap.
But only one favourite has won in the decade (8-10 finished out of the frame); most winners (again 8-10) have had at least double his number of runs; and the handicapper says he’s improved only 6lb for two wins out of four in the Spring.
The pace is on and it’s summer ground which should suit better than the bog which slowed him down at Chester, and he’s drawn high where the early speed seems to be and where Hunt Cup winners come from: 24, 27, 28 and 33 (twice) at the new Ascot (since 2005).
Richard Hannon has an established Group horse in the race, Trumpet Major, but he needs a tongue-tie these days and I don’t want to be on a ‘roarer’ in a cavalry charge like this.
Richard Hughes prefers The Queen’s Sea Shanty (drawn 29). Like Abseil, he got in with a late – very late – win but last season put a hat-trick together inside a month. Two wins at Sandown suggest he can handle the hill finish.
Richard Fahey, who drops Gabrials Kaka back to his winning distance from a Group-3 tilt, has booked Olivier Peslier for Tales Of Grimm, despite a question mark over today’s ground.
Tales Of Grimm all but won a Group 3 last backend and his fourth to Fort Bastion at the York Dante meeting has him bang in there with a shout in stall 25. He and Group-2 winner Steeler (stall 23) both campaigned in Dubai earlier in the year.
On the other side, in stall 8, Stirring Ballad was one of the favourites for this race last year – hampered – and she has seemingly been saved up for revenge today.
Queensberry Rules (stall 32), who goes best fresh, has also had this race as a sole target and has been gelded since last season.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: In Ryan Moore (Queensberry Rules) and Richard Hughes (Sea Shanty) I have two of the best jocks around and, in 14.0 and 20.0 on BETDAQ, the best offers around. Saver: Abseil.
IRISH POWER FINISH AT HUGE 29.0
5.35 Royal Ascot (Sandringham Handicap) There’s early speed on both sides here – Crowley’s Law in stall 2 and Muteela in 22 – and in the middle, with Stealth Missile (11).
You could put your support behind half a dozen of these fillies and still be called wrong (a woman’s way), so it’s a race for a punt.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The grey filly Queen of Power (29.0) didn’t like the soft ground in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, and Psychometry (9.6) could do better dropped back from Oaks trials to this mile.
NAP: I shall nap Integral but with worries about Esoterique. I think following Sir Michael Stoute, with Abseil, Integral and Psychometry is the real nap bet of the day, stop at a winner. I’m saving the Bull’s-Eye Bet until tomorrow.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each one to win 40 points, unless stated)
BET 7.6pts win MUWARRY and 2.7pts win and place BIG TIME (2.30 Royal Ascot)
BET 3.4pts win and place DANGEROUS MOONLITE, and (win 30) 10pts win SPANISH PIPEDREAM (3.05 Royal Ascot)
BET 5.7pts win MAGICIAN and 4.2pts win THE FUGUE (3.45 Royal Ascot)
BET (to win 30): 10pts win (nap) INTEGRAL and 6.25pts win ESOTERIQUE (4.25 Royal Ascot)
BET 3pts win and place QUEENSBERRY RULES and 2pts win and place SEA SHANTY, with 2pts win (all-stakes saver) ABSEIL (5.00 Royal Ascot)
BET (to win 30): 3.5pts win PSYCHOMETRY and 1pt win and place QUEEN OF POWER (5.35 Royal Ascot)
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