GOODWOOD TODAY: THE TOP STABLES: Today Daqman takes you through the weekday racing at Goodwood to spot the top trainers in the early part of the meeting, starting tomorrow.
GOODWOOD TOMORROW: TOP TIPPING: Daqman will be in full cry tomorrow, leading the hunt for winners at the glorious festival, currently 51-18 up in his challenge to Pricewise.
TODAY: Daqman has four bets and gives the going some stick.
HANNONS FOR GOODWOOD STARTERS
Mark your card for Goodwood? Just as Dermot Weld is the Mr Big of the Galway Festival this week (see yesterday’s column in the Daqman Archive), so Mark Johnston perennially farms the Sussex Downs, leaving year on year with a crop of Glorious Goodwood prizes.
But is he the top man to follow, this Yorkshire-based Scot, who has earned £1m in prizemoney in 14 of the last 15 seasons?
Punters invariably ‘blue’ their cash in the early part of a festival but, if they were to go in heavy on Days 1 and 2, then Team Hannon, not Johnston, is your stable, with an edge over Yorkshire yard of 17 winners to 11 in the last 10 years.
And, if they were to look for value through the meeting, with Hannon and Johnston always tight in the market, they should try Luca Cumani, Jeremy Noseda and David Nicholls.
Not forgetting the local stables. Amanda Perrett always likes to have one or two at peak form. And Ed Dunlop, though he trains at Newmarket, loves to score at the track the Dunlop family still call home.
Day 1 (10 years winners) Team Hannon 9, Mark Johnston 6, Luca Cumani 5, David Nicholls 4, Saeed Bin Suroor 3, Peter Chapple-Hyam 3, Mick Channon 2, Marcus Tregoning 2, Clive Brittain 2, Willie Haggas 2, Sir Mark Prescott 2.
Day 2 Hannons 8, Noseda 6, Johnston 5, Brian Meehan 3, James Fanshawe 3, Stoute 3, Nicholls 2.
Day 3 Johnston 7, Hannons 6, Stoute 4, Noseda 2, Gosden 2, Chapple-Hyam 2, Cox 2, Nicholls 2, Balding 2, Wall 2, Fahey 2, Cole 2, Tompkins 2, O’Brien 2
Day 4 Johnston 7, Hannons 6, Cumani 5, Nicholls 5, Stoute 4, Barry Hills 3, Charlton 2, Gosden 2, Meehan 2, John Best 2, Bin Suroor 2, Noseda 2.
WHAT TO BACK THIS AFTERNOON?
Two great champion trainers under different racing Rules, Aidan O’Brien and Willie Mullins, are face to face on the first day of Galway in the two-mile Flat handicap (6.45), with Mullins a major threat, despite quiet summer months for jumping: he’s currently on a 50% strike rate (7-14 in two weeks).
Sabrina Harty, Thomas Mullins, Jessica Harrington, Patrick Flynn and John Quinn are also in decent form but the only one of their runners ideally drawn is a 12-year-old, Fosters Cross, winner of this in 2011.
Winningmost amateur jockey on the Flat this year riding in this is Sarah O’Brien, with three winners from seven rides (47%) but her mount, Marchese Marconi, is also badly drawn, as is the short-priced favourite, Quick Jack.
Taglietelle will appreciate the return to a right-handed track but I want horses unexposed to the Flat handicapper if I am to upset this favourite. Grecian Tiger (12.0 on BETDAQ this morning) and Wither Hills (15.0) look primed for the race and there is clearly more to come from them.
Meanwhile at Ayr they stage an eight race card on good to firm ground or should that be 9.3 ground ?
That’s what the going stick reads. DAQMAN wonders if you asked 100 people how many people would answer numerically to “what is the going today?” – or, try asking 10,000 people ??
The problem is that the going stick hasn’t caught on – but it should have. We desperately need accurate ground descriptions yet there is either a general mistrust or lack of education about the going stick.
If it’s mistrust – then we need a better system. The same going stick readings can equal different ground at different courses.
The 9.3 at Ayr today in old money translates to good to firm. Yet when we compare Uttoxeter’s latest reading of 6.1 versus Goodwood’s 8.4 the ground is described at both venues as ‘good, good to firm in places’.
There was plenty of controversy on the ground at Ascot on Friday when the deluge changed the ground from good to firm to good to soft mid-meeting yet many seasoned observers and anoraks were up in arms as the subsequent winning times didn’t suggest the ground hadn’t changed that dramatically.
I WANT to trust the stick but can’t at the moment. It’s more laughing stick than going stick at the moment.
Keep an eye on the non runners at Ayr because if the ground really IS as fast as the stick suggests it is then the NR’s could mount up to race time. There are seven non runners at the time of writing.
There were plenty of complaints about the number of handicaps on Saturday and Ayr make it tough for punters again today with seven of the eight races all handicaps.
There’s been some interesting morning support for Thorntoun Care in the 3.30 at Ayr but I had two question marks against this one for both trip and going. He is unexposed but I have to look elsewhere and prefer the chances of the top weight Cavalieri who stayed on well at Doncaster last time and should be suited by the extra trip.
At Lingfield I thought Oasis Mirage was nap material at around evens on BETDAQ in the maiden at 4.15. Given that the market is held together by Narborough who is a 16 times maiden almost makes Oasis Mirage a default selection but she probably doesn’t need to even improve, just cope with the surface on her all-weather debut.
It’s a whole different ball game at Windsor tonight where the going is soft. In the finale I think the ground will be against recent Lingfield scorer Honourable Knight and Layline could be the call. He has winning form on heavy ground and is trained by Gay Kelleway who introduced a very nice sort in the shape of Lightscameraction to win at Lingfield on debut on Saturday.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win 20 except nap)
BET 4.4pts win CAVALIERI (3.30 Ayr)
BET 10pts win (nap) OASIS MIRAGE (4.15 Lingfield)
BET 1.8pts win GRECIAN TIGER and 1.4pts win WITHER HILLS (6.45 Galway)
BET 2.8 pts win LAYLINE (8.35 Windsor)
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