THE LOST TRADERS OF THE ARC: They don’t know where to be. Bookies and punters alike are lost, after Arc de Triomphe form was turned upside down yet again yesterday, trials day at Longchamp. Incredibly, SEVEN horses were this morning being quoted between 5-1 and 7-1, and a total of 17 were as low as 14-1.
HERE’S DAQMAN’S ABC GUIDE: Daqman today gives you an ABC Guide to the top 19 still being discussed with the big race of October 5 at Longchamp in mind. His verdict: ‘As ever, the BETDAQ market tells a truer story and contains the value.’
THERE’S CERTAIN VALUE ON BETDAQ
BETDAQ to the rescue. With the Arc betting markets in turmoil, the new list in the orange this morning brings some sanity to the proceedings, with five horses offered below 10.0.
Just A Way at 11.0 was double some bookmaker offers but Avenir Certain looked the value at 9.2, with most firms at 5-1 and 6-1, though Kingston Hill fans will be attracted to a speculative 14.5 where bookies go as low as 8-1
Australia and The Grey Gatsby Australia is as short as 7-1 favourite with one firm for the Arc but not quoted by Ladbrokes after defeat in Irish Champion Stakes by The Grey Gatsby on Saturday.
Ascot Champion Stakes and QE 11 Mile (same day next month) seem more likely options.
The Grey Gatsby, still quoted by some bookmakers for the Arc (10-1 and 14-1), is also bound for the Champion Stakes, so they may meet again, or it is not altogether impossible for one of them to now take a different route.
Avenir Certain Another idea of the favourite. In fact, eight firms had her 5-1 this morning. Unbeaten in six starts for Jean-Claude Rouget, she has won the French Guineas and the Prix Diane in the manner of a Zarkava, who went on to score in the Arc.
The same trainer’s Prince Gibraltar was third to The Grey Gatsby in the French Derby. He describes Avenir Certain as ‘working very well at home.’
Baltic Baroness Completed a hat-trick for Andre Fabre when just managing to peg back Pomology in yesterday’s Prix Vermeille. One of those which would have to pay the 100,000euro late-entry fee if wanting to line up for the Arc.
Eagle Top Still immature, with just four races on his CV but only 14-1 with some. Beaten by Taghrooda in the King George after winning the ‘Ascot Derby’ (King Edward V11 Stakes) from Adelaide, who raced too far out of his ground yesterday and finished fast behind Ectot in the Prix Niel.
Ectot and Teletext There is no other collateral link with Ectot who won the Saint-cloud Grand Criterium last November and was not seen after reappearing in the Spring to beat Karakontie, the subsequent French Guineas winner.
But Ectot burst back on to the Arc scene, mainly 7-1 (5-1 in a place this morning) with a scintillating drive to the line in the prestigious Prix Niel trial yesterday, albeit getting first run on a fast-finishing Adelaide. Runner-up Teletext’s say they have decided against the Arc, though he is ias low as 14-1 this morning.
Epiphaneia Japanese Guineas and Derby runner-up of 2013, before winning their St Leger. Another one sidelined since the Spring but as low as 12-1 in places.
Free Eagle Dermot Weld’s lightly-raced runner-up to Australia in the Breeders Cup Juveniule last autumn, had also been absent through injury until sauntering home in a Group 3 at Leopardstown on Saturday. Just 10-1 in one or two places for the Arc but more likely to go for the Champion Stakes at Newmarket.
Gold Ship Just 10-1 with Ladbrokes, the multiple Japanese Grade-1 winner was last seen giving lumps of weight to the three-year-old Harp Star in their one-two for a Grade 3 at Sapporo in August.
Harp Star Winner of the Japanese 1,000 Guineas and Oaks runner-up, her three-year-old concession from Gold Ship was enough to see her home at Sapporo last month but, after only six starts, looks sure to improve again. Quoted 7-1 and 8-1.
Ivanhowe As low as 9-1 after slamming former favourite Sea The Moon at Baden-Baden eight days ago but we now know that Sea The Moon, runaway German Derby winner, was not himself and has dropped out of the Arc.
Just A Way Only 5-1 in a place, the Dubai Duty Free winner carried on his Grade-1 winning ways at Tokyo in June but has poor form in few starts beyond 10 furlongs.
Kingston Hill Kingston Hill, second in the Epsom Derby and winner of Saturday’s St Leger, is as short as 8-1, and trainer Roger Varian said this morning that Kingston Hill ‘deserves to be in the Arc line-up.’
Ruler Of The World and Flintshire Remember Ruler Of The World? Last year’s Epsom Derby winner came back on to the Arc scene with his first win since, making all in yesterday’s Prix Foy, beating Flintshire, who is another Arc possible at 20-1. One firm went 10-1 ‘Ruler’ this morning.
Taghrooda Took over the market yellow jersey when she followed up her Epsom Oaks triumph by slamming the King George field a similar margin. She was beaten in the Yorkshire Oaks and drifted badly for Longchamp, but is now back to 4-1 in places.
Every horse – and filly – is allowed one bad run and she may have been in season. Her stablemate, Pomology, almost pinched the Vermeille yesterday until cut down by Baltic Baroness in the final stride, with last year’s Arc winner, Treve, well beaten.
Tapestry Had been ‘improving lovely every month’ (quote unquote Aidan O’Brien) and proved him right when slamming Taghrooda in the Yorkshire Oaks, but she was down the field at Leopardstown at the weekend behind Fiesolana. Some are 12-1.
Treve Favourite on an off in the betting skirmishes to repeat last year’s Arc victory but she had disappointed twice this season, in the Ganay and at Royal Ascot, before trainer Criquette Head-Maarek tried a last-chance saloon switch of jockeys from Frankie Dettori to Thierry Jarnet yesterday but she failed to quicken down the outside and was only fourth. Still as low as 7-1.
DIAMONDS ARE VALUE IN MUSSELBURGH
2.50 Brighton A Selling Handicap to start us off at Brighton as I’m avoiding the opening maiden and I’ve narrowed it down to two horses, Royal Mizar and Maid of Tuscany.
The latter is nicely weighted considering her handicap mark but is an 11 race maiden. In saying that, she is quite consistent and has run some nice races on the All Weather. I think she may need a couple of extra pounds before finally getting her head in front though.
Royal Mizar is also a maiden in the double figures having run 12 times without a win. He was second in last two runs, both at Bath and was fourth prior to that at Brighton but over 2 furlongs extra, which he probably didn’t see out fully. Ten furlongs looks to be more suitable and he has been dropping steadily down in the handicap and this could finally be his day.
3.20 Brighton This is a tricky contest. Seven runners over 11 furlongs and a case can be made for almost all. For me though, the bottom three are of most interest.
Snow Conditions won over a furlong extra at Brighton last time out and receives a penalty of 6lbs. Shelly Birkett takes a valuable five back off and with her being rated at just 62, she looks like setting the standard.
Tunnel Tiger, at the bottom of the handicap, was third behind Snow Conditions last time out and is quite consistent despite still being a Maiden. She may need a few extra pounds though to close the gap on Snow Conditions.
The one that I think is open to most improvement though is Richard Hughes’s mount, Sir Tyto. He was third last time out over 1 mile and five at Bath, on ground softer than ideal and won previously at Brighton over 10 furlongs. A furlong extra and nice ground should see him improve and I think he still has a little left up his sleeve off a mark of 52.
4.20 Brighton Richard Hughes could be in line for a nice double on the card at Brighton two races later when he takes the mount on another belonging to Peter Makin, Just Isla.
She was a winner over course and distance twice previously and only just got touched off last time out, again over course and distance, and a three pound rise may not be enough to stop her here today.
2.40 Musselburgh The 2 Year old nursery over five furlongs is not the easiest event to read.
Spend A Penny is the early favourite having had three runs with the latest coming in a Class 3 race at York finishing fifth. If he can reproduce a run like that this time, it puts him right up there, but he folded quite that day and weakened to finish fifth.
Instead, I’m much more interested in Somedaysrdiamonds each way. She won a similar class Nursery at Lingfield a couple of runs and went on to finish fourth in a Class 3 race at Thirsk before a fifth at Kempton back on the All Weather. Off a mark of 63, I think she could improve a little and go very close in this one.
4.10 Musselburgh A two mile handicap where it wouldn’t be hugely surprising to see Sir Frank Morgan take an early lead and he is certain to stay. The honesty of Mark Johnston’s horses is always a positive and he should be quite close all the way.
There are question marks over a couple of his rivals and whether or not they are really suited by the step up to two miles, but we know that Sir Frank Morgan will stay, he is very consistent and he looks the one to beat.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.1pts win and place SOMEDAYSRDIAMONDS (2.40 Musselburgh)
BET 6.8pts win (Nap) ROYAL MIZAR (2.50 Brighton)
BET 6.1pts win SIR TYTO (3.20 Brighton)
BET 6.1pts win SIR FRANK MORGAN (4.10 Musselburgh)
BET 3pts win JUST ISLA (4.20 Brighton)
EARLY MOUSE: MERCHANT OF DUBAI (3.40 Musselburgh); PIVOT POINT (2.20 Brighton); WHY NOT NOW (3.50 Brighton); BAYLEYF (4.50 Brighton)
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