HERO WORLD CHALLENGE PREVIEW: Well, I think we can all agree that if you’ve made it into the field of this week’s Hero World Challenge, you’re already a winner in the game of life. A select group of 18 players will do battle at the beautiful Albany Resort golf course in the Bahamas, all at the invitation of tournament host Tiger Woods and his foundation.
The last time I was at Albany I found the food there a little subpar, to be honest, and I was disappointed that they didn’t have fuel for my gold-plated rocket ship. I also found a weed on the right side of the 14th fairway, 161 yards from the green, so I’m not sure the superintendent is still around. In all seriousness, though, this is supposed to be one of the finest resorts in the entire world and none of these players are hurting for money, so “intense pressure” will not be part of the proceedings this week.
The golf course was designed by Ernie Els and it has never hosted a professional event before, which makes handicapping the field a bit tricky. We know that it’s 7,400 yards and has five par-5s and five par-3s, so longer players who dominate par-5s may have a slight edge, and it’s supposedly a “desert links” style that Els once compared to a cross between Royal Birkdale and his own course in Dubai. Whenever we hear the word “links” we always think “wind”, and indeed the Bahamas can be quite breezy (so I’m told), though no extreme weather is in the forecast this week.
So… where does that leave us? Adam Scott and Justin Rose both own homes at Albany, but Scott was playing on the other side of the world three days ago (Australian Open) and Rose is difficult to trust right now after posting a 3rd-round 78 in his last event, the DP World Tour Championship. I’m tempted to just back the five guys with the longest odds (Lahiri, Walker, Horschel, Haas, Kirk) and know that I have 28% of the field covered, all at 58.0 or longer. Rememebr, though, that Jordan Spieth won this event by 10 shots last year. A small field theoretically makes it easier for the long-odds guy to win, but it also makes it easier for the red-hot player to dominate. With that in mind, here are this week’s selections:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Patrick Reed (13.5)- While many of the world’s top players have been enjoying some rest and relaxation in recent weeks, Patrick Reed has been playing great golf all over the world. He finished 3rd in Hong Kong back in October, 10th in Malaysia the following week, 7th at the HSBC Champions in China the week after that, 2nd at the BMW Masters, and 10th at the DP World Tour Championships. It doesn’t matter if he’s teeing it up in Budapest or Baltimore; Reed is coming to play and he’s bringing his birdies with him. He’s extremely confident, we all know that, so I’m sure he considers himself the favorite this week. Well, so do I.
Brooks Koepka (29.0)- Koepka hits the ball nine miles and he birdied nearly half of the par-5s he played on the PGA Tour this year, so he’ll always have a slight advantage over most of the field on a course that has five par-5s, as Albany does. He’s had success on links-style courses in the past, most recently finishing 2nd in October’s Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, which was contested at St. Andrews, Carnoustie, and Kingsbarns. Moreover, Koepka has risen to the occasion in the bigger events over the past few months, finishing 5th at the PGA, 6th at the WGC-Bridgestone, and 10th at the Open Championship. I’m not suggesting that this week’s event will be comparable in terms of pressure and importance, but I do believe it’s meaningful that Koepka routinely beats the world’s best on the biggest of stages. He “belongs” and he knows it, and so he won’t be the least bit bothered if he’s dueling a Jordan Spieth or a Dustin Johnson on the final nine this week. Koepka has the ability to run away from the field much like Spieth did last year, making him a must-bet at nearly 30/1.
Bill Haas (76.0)- So you’re telling me I can get Bill Haas at 76.0 to beat 17 guys? Sold. Look, this isn’t tennis, where one player can physically dominate the other and big upsets are rare. This is golf, where any player in the field can beat any other on any given day, a maxim that is especially true in an event like this, where only the best of the best are invited to compete. Haas is a world-class ball-striker who could win this tournament going away if his putter cooperates. He’s been active recently, too, opening with a 67 in the RSM Classic two weeks ago and closing with a 66. He may not be as hot of a name as Spieth, Johnson, Rose, or Watson, but he isn’t saddled with their price, either. I’ll say it again– you give me Bill Haas to beat 17 golfers at 76.0, and I’ll take it anytime, anywhere, against anybody.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Hideki Matsuyama (1.8) vs. Adam Scott (2.0)
I decided to stay away from Scott in the overall market because I thought his price was a bit too short and I’m concerned about the fact that he was playing halfway around the world in Australia last week, but those are just about the only concerns you have here, and there are plenty of reasons to think that he’ll play well. He owns a home at Albany so he’s surely very familiar with the golf course, and you have to assume that he’s excited about competing this week, considering he opted out of the Australian PGA, a big event, to be here. Plus, he’s been hot lately, picking up top-10 finishes around the world in recent weeks, including a runner-up in last week’s Australian Open. I’ve stayed away in the overall market, but I’m all over Scott in a head-to-head against Matsuyama. Recommendation: Scott at 2.0
Justin Rose (1.91) vs. Dustin Johnson (1.92)
Would it be too obvious to just back both guys who own property at Albany? I mean, Rose vs. Johnson is just about a coin-flip most weeks anyway, so shouldn’t the player with the vast advantage in course knowledge be labeled the favorite? Rose has spoken at length about how much he likes the course at Albany, while the last time Johnson was there he was probably playing barefoot with Paulina. And Rose has played very well over the past month, winning in Hong Kong and finishing 7th at the BMW Masters, while Johnson has only teed it up twice since September’s Tour Championship. Both of these guys are very capable of winning the whole thing, obviously, but I think I’ll take my chances with the Englishman here. Recommendation: Rose at 1.91
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