PAY-OUT OF BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: Daqman followed up his 5-1 Monday nap, Steal The Scene, with another winning best bet, Singlefarmpayment (WON 5-4) at Southwell yesterday. He also named Carlo Rocks (WON 2-1) to add to winners on Monday at 5-1 (twice) and 7-2.
11 WINNING BETS IN TWO DAYS: His two winners from four Tuesday races gave him a total of 11 winning bets over the two days of profit, including a lays spree of five out of five on BETDAQ-sponsored races.
‘SQUEEZE THE ORANGE’ STRATEGY: Daqman added new language to his betting dictionary last week when he coined the phrase ‘squeezing the orange,’ a strategy of offering bigger odds so that you gain a commission reduction to 2%. Now read on.
THE ART OF BETTING WHEN THE PRICE IS RIGHT
BETDAQ layers make value offers. Of that there is no doubt. You only have to add up the offers in the orange for each race – conveniently done for you at the top of the list – and you’ll find they settle at a total 102-110% most mornings, where the SP will be 117-130, even as much as 147%. That’s mean.
BETDAQ backers still have to pay a small commission but you can whittle it down to 2% if you simply make a bigger offer about your horse. You can sometimes squeeze even more out of the orange. A good time to start is when the market is fluent in the morning.
First you need to know what price you want. Simplistically, if you think a horse should be 5-1 but the layers offer 3-1, you do not have value.
If the layer offers 5-1 about your estimated 3-1 shot, then you are clearly getting the value for money you crave.
But you also have to consider the market as a whole.. which way it might go, what horses seem too short, too long, and why.
A horse too short may be likely to ease, if there’s a run on something else (example, if Pricewise has tipped an outsider and the lemmings rush in). That’s a good time to offer more.
But a horse at odds too long may be an indication that it’s not fancied; there is no money for it. Fools rush in…
After pricing up a race, I will be looking for ‘drifters’ and those too easy to back, as over my ‘betting weir’; they are ‘not at the races’ that day. They are not the value they seem to be; they will sell you down the river.
On the other hand, when a horse at the front of the market is short of your value estimation, then it may have lost its value as a bet. Understanding when to make a bigger offer to ‘squeeze the orange’ and cut your commission needs practice, and you can easily be misled into a false-value bet even in that area at the front of the market.
If the favourite is odds on, and the second favourite 4.0, with 10.0 bar two, the 4.0 shot is unlikely to ease unless there is more money for the favourite, in which case the market is indicating against it.
The introduction of the 2% commission as a bonus is a huge learning tool for the punter, and that includes me. It teaches understanding of the market and requires play variations to improve your chances of winning.
Remember you don’t have to back one horse and hope to win. You can take positions, make plays and trade in order to win the race. Try the strategy of winning a race to a small percentage profit as opposed to winning in the long-term with one bet per race.
Those who can have their Daq up most of the day are at a big advantage: they should log the offers at intervals (keeping an eye on the percentage at the top of the orange) and see how they bet from early mouse to the ‘off.’
Over a period, you will see patterns emerge, and spot which circumstances provide an opportunity to squeeze the orange for a reduction bonus.
I’m taking a view this morning of some of the races today which suggest does and don’ts about making an offer.
SQUEEZE THE ORANGE FOR MORE BEER MONEY
12.20 Catterick SQUEEZE Punters are always nervous of conditional-jockeys’ races. Early BETDAQ lists of around 118% are sure to ease dramatically to around 104% by mid-morning in the orange.
Beer Goggles opened favourite (he was 4.0 at around 8 a.m.). I offered 4.5 and, checking again at 10.19 a.m., when the total percentage in the orange was down to 106%, Beer Goggles was 4.7.
I strongly recommend that you insert new offers early on if you want to squeeze the orange.
1.30 Lingfield SQUEEZE I saw 5.9 the field at around 8 a.m. with the BETDAQ orange adding up to more than 130%. Those punters who fancied they could pick the winner should have gone in then; even something speculative was worth an early position.
It was certain that the market would settle at half that percentage, maybe as low as 110%. Sure enough, by 9 a.m., everything was easier to back, adding up to less than 117% with 7.0 the field.
By 10.23 a.m., the orange was down to 108%. I hope you didn’t miss the boat. You could have been one of those who made the market what it was by offering more. Remember, it’s your BETDAQ. You make the market happen.
1.40 Ludlow I never blush to repeat that you are better off betting in races graded higher than class 4, simply because the runners are more likely to perform consistently.
The favourite Dusky Legend has been a bit of a bridesmaid (form figures of 222), which is probably why she’s switched from the obvious first run back in a maiden (she has yet to win one); they think her handicap mark is a winner.
I certainly wouldn’t want to offer more than her 2.82 on BETDAQ this morning, with 11 out of 14 tipsters on her in the Racing Post Selection Box for the meeting.
And she looks a bet at that price on this premise alone: the second favourite this morning, Tara Mist, was 16 lengths behind her when they met last year, and the third horse in the market, Allez Encore, saw Tara Mist’s rear in the Spring.
MY DAQ’S UP ALL DAY TO CATCH AMORE..
1.50 Catterick SQUEEZE As everything else drifted, and the BETDAQ orange settled down to a value 107%, Amore Alato (3.4 offers) clung to Stiletto (3.1). Both needed their first runs back.
Stiletto looks attractively bred at first glance – he’s a Westerner – but his dam’s side doesn’t bear inspection: average Points winners.
Amore Amato was Listed level over hurdles and the dam won over fences at around today’s trip. The stable is two out of five just now.
I thought they might get stuck into a Paul Nicholls’ northern raider and tried an offer of 3.7 Amore Alato. I figured that the market suggested a two-horse race and, allowing a point for error (a shock winner in the rest of the field), I reckoned around 5-2 or 3-1 would be value.
But my strategy had a Plan B. If Stiletto became easier to back and Amore Alato closed in even further – maybe became favourite! – I would feel very strong vibes to back Amore again.. at the shorter price.
2.10 Ludlow (Boyne Cup) Deciding Moment (BETDAQ 37.0) was a huge price this morning for one who wins when fresh, and has been so highly tried. Check out his form at this level and you get figures of 21021223, still standing.
The handicapper has given Tinker Time (holds Goodtoknow) a chance but he doesn’t like it too soft. David Pipe’s had only one chase winner in the last fortnight so I’m wary of Skylander.
Rio Milan (12.0 offers) was tonked 10lb for winning over 2m 4f on today’s course, but he is well in on October form with the recent course winner King Massini, who was favourite early mouse.
2.40 Ludlow The 10-year-old Helium is a stone and a half higher than he’s ever won off outside novice company, and his recent hat-trick has cost him a 27lb rise in all.
Jayo Time is also up in the weights but loves Ludlow and has youth on his side; four years younger than Helium, so should improve against him.
Racing Post ratings have him six points in front of Helium, BEFORE taking his claimer’s 7lb into account.
Another 10-year-old catches the eye: Lightening Rod is a very rare visitor to Ludlow for in-form Michael Easterby. Rod is returning to fences for the first time since March 2012.
But another youngster, Ozzy Thomas, only five, looks promising off a light weight after jumping well on his chase debut a month ago. He wouldn’t want any more rain.
I took 4.6 Jayo Time when the BETDAQ orange had settled at 110%, and felt that I couldn’t expect more. By 10.33, Jayo Time was 4.2 in a 107% orange, so I was glad of the 4.6.
BETDAQ BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BET 9pts win (nap) DUSKY LEGEND (1.40 Ludlow)
BET 8pts win AMORE ALATO (1.50 Catterick)
BET 1.5pts win and place RIO MILAN, and 1pt win and place DECIDING MOMENT (2.10 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win JAYO TIME (2.40 Ludlow)
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