NFL WEEK 17: The New York Jets visit the Buffalo Bills in the most meaningful game of this Week 17, as Rex Ryan will look to spoil the playoff hopes of his old team and open the door for the Pittsburgh Steelers, who would then need only a win over the hapless Browns to capture the final AFC Wild Card berth. The playoff picture is pretty much settled other than that– the Colts need a win, a Houston loss, and then SEVEN other games to go their way to catch the Texans in the AFC South, and all six playoff spots in the NFC have been decided, though the Packers and the Vikings will meet on Sunday night with the NFC North and a first-round home game on the line.
It’s always best to tread carefully in Week 17, as we tend to see some unusual results due to varying degrees of motivation and the competitive reality that playoff teams face when considering whether to rest their best players. The Washington Redskins, for instance, have locked up the NFC East and their game in Dallas on Sunday is essentially meaningless, so there’s no telling who they’ll put out there (head coach Jay Gruden has already hinted at resting some starters). Other games are a bit more straightforward, but as a general rule Week 17 is full of surprises, and that should be taken into account when handicapping this week’s action.
We’ve been skipping through the minefields beautifully lately, responding to a midseason cold spell with a 10-1-1 run over the past three weeks that came just in time for the holidays. No reason to stop now…
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (Pit -10.5, 47)
The Steelers suffered an unconscionably bad loss to Baltimore last week that has put their playoff hopes on life support, and I don’t think I’m ready to live in a world where they follow that performance with a loss to a team that’s even worse than the Ravens. So for me, this game is not a matter of ‘who’, but of ‘how many’. And in the ‘how many’ department, the Steelers have been a pretty safe bet this season, topping 30 points in six of their last seven games and winning four of those games by 7 points or more, including a 30-9 destruction of these very same Browns back in Week 10. Things have only gone downhill in Cleveland since that game, as the Browns have lost four of their last five and are now down to third-string quarterback Austin Davis after Johnny Manziel was diagnosed with a concussion this week. The Cleveland defense has been terrible all season, ranking 26th in the NFL in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed, and the Steelers have one of the league’s very best offenses, a unit that ranks in the top-5 in total yards per game, pass yards per game, and points scored. If you think that sounds like a mismatch you would be correct, and Ben Roethlisberger threw for 379 yards and 3 touchdowns in the aforementioned Week 10 beating. Well, here we are again, except the Steelers are playing for their playoff lives (they need a win and a Jets loss) and Austin Davis is under center for the Browns. This isn’t rocket science, right? Recommendation: Pittsburgh -10.5 at 1.91
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -6.5, 47)
The Cardinals have already broken Seattle’s hold on the NFC West, clinching the division a couple of weeks ago thanks to a winning streak that now stands at nine games. It’s been three years since they’ve beaten the ‘Hawks at home, though, and this week they face a wounded Seahawks team that looked very ordinary in a loss to St. Louis last Sunday. The ‘Hawks have been decimated by injuries at the running back position and are now down to journeymen reserves Christine Michael and Bryce Brown, a tandem that combined for just 15 yards on 13 carries last week. Russell Wilson is a playmaker but the Seattle offense revolves around the running game, and if the Cardinals are able to smother that rushing attack like the Rams did last week– a likely scenario, considering that Arizona ranks 4th in the NFL against the run– then it could get really ugly for the Seahawks. The Arizona offense hasn’t been slowed by anybody lately, and they went up to Seattle in Week 10 and hung 39 points and 451 yards on the famed Legion of Boom. Bruce Arians has proven to be a “go for the throat” type of coach and he certainly has the necessary pieces to put his plan into action, as Carson Palmer is surrounded by one of the league’s best receiving corps and the line has done an excellent job of keeping him upright. The results speak for themselves: the Cards lead the NFL in both total offense and points scored and have won their last four games by a combined score of 128-48. Seattle retains a lot of respect in the betting marketplace and the ‘Hawks will be a tough out in the playoffs, but they’re walking into the lion’s den this week, up against a better team. Look for the Cardinals to keep it rolling with an easy win. Recommendation: Arizona -6.5 at 1.91
San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (Den -9, 41)
As some readers are aware, I’ve been fading the Broncos with regularity in recent weeks, as I’m entirely unconvinced that Brock Osweiler is a capable NFL quarterback and I think that Denver’s offensive ineptitude has been somewhat underreported, giving life to a “Denver’s offense is worse than people realize” angle that I’ve been leaning on. All that being said, I expect the Broncos to absolutely punish a bad San Diego team this week, and not even a 9-point number (despite a measly 41-point total!!) can scare me off. Yes, the Chargers will have the best quarterback in this game– Philip Rivers is elite, and Osweiler is barely fit to hold his clipboard– but it won’t be enough. Rivers will be going up against the NFL’s best defense, a unit that leads the league in both total yards allowed and pass yards allowed and ranks second in points allowed, surrendering just 18.4 per game. These teams met just four weeks ago in San Diego and the Chargers were totally shut down, scoring just 3 points as Rivers threw for a mere 202 yards despite being in “pass-first” mode for most of the game. There’s no reason to expect anything different this time around, especially with Denver needing a win to lock up the AFC West and a first-round postseason bye. And while I’m no Brock Osweiler believer, he’ll be at home this week and facing a porous defense, a defense that he’ll be seeing for the second time in a month, so he’s set up for success. Plus, the sight of Peyton Manning standing in-uniform on the sideline, waiting to take over the reins, should spur young Osweiler in a positive direction (if not, he’ll likely be replaced by Manning). I like Denver here in an ugly, one-sided affair. Recommendation: Denver -9 at 1.87
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3, 46)
It’s Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field, right? I mean, the great Rodgers isn’t going to allow his team to lose at home on the final Sunday of the season with the division on the line… right??? This is Aaron Rodgers vs. Teddy-frickin-Bridgewater, after all…. If this line of thinking sounds like you, then I urge you to stop and reconsider. We’re through 16 weeks of the season now, there is no impending breakthrough coming, not for Green Bay or anybody else. You are what you are at this point, and the Packers are below-average on both sides of the ball (24th total offense, 19th total defense). They’re a totally non-threatening team, a team that’s just 4-5 in its last nine games and was throttled 38-8 by Arizona last week. Again, if you’re banking on them to suddenly snap out of it because “Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field” and all that, then I urge you to reconsider. The Vikings are rock-solid on defense and the secondary is the strength of the unit, so this is a good matchup for them. Green Bay did go into Minnesota and pull out a win six weeks ago, but the Vikings held Rodgers in check in that game, limiting him to 212 yards on 16/34 passing, and the Packers offense certainly hasn’t improved since that first meeting. Speaking of that first meeting, Adrian Peterson had a rough outing against a very suspect Green Bay defense that day, rushing for just 45 yards and fumbling once, and you’d be wise to bet all the money in your pockets that he won’t produce a dud like that again. The Vikings have been beating their collective heads up against this wall for some time– they’ve beaten Green Bay just once in the last 12 meetings, and the Packers have won four straight division titles. I have a hunch that this time, though, things will turn out differently. The Vikings are finally better than their division rival, and I’m sure they’ll take great delight in proving it to the world on Sunday night. Recommendation: Minnesota +3 at 2.04
2015 Record- 34-29-1
