BANKERS DUO BETTER ON BETDAQ: A double of bankers yesterday sent Daqman’s maximum-stakes bets soaring back to an 80% success rate, with eight winners from the last 10. The winners, Jetstream Jack (WON 1-3 from 1.75) and Halo Moon (WON 4-6 from 1.7) were both better on BETDAQ:
WON 4-5 Thistlecrack
WON 1-1 Felix Yonger
WON 2-7 Pain Au Chocolat
WON 7-4 Halo Moon
2nd 11-10 Brise Vendeenne
WON 8-11 Jaleo
WON 10-11 Bristol De Mai
2nd 1-2 Samategal
WON 1-3 Jetstream Jack
WON 4-6 Halo Moon
CHELTENHAM PATHFINDER PUNTS REVEALED: Today Daqman looks again at his three main files on the Cheltenham Festival after a series of trials which have added strengths and weaknesses to the betting market. The movement in the offers is given only for the pathfinder horses, those which have won trials which the stats say give them the main chance in each big race.
CHAMPIONS FILE: SMAD! 40 POINTS OVER
Here’s the first of a three-day update on Cheltenham. Today Daqman revises his Champion Files on the big three races, the Champion Hurdle, Champion Chase and Gold Cup.
Look out after that for for his updated Cheltenham Players X1 and then more ante-post comparisons on the BETDAQ and bookmaker markets.
Today’s champions lists, which trace which horses relate to the winning stats, reveal that you could have had a stunning 52.0 Smad Place before his recent Cheltenham success in the race in which Djakadam fell. He is now down to 12.0 on BETDAQ, giving backers 40 point of overs.
Cheltenham Gold Cup (Cheltenham, 18 March) According to the stats, Saturday’s Denman Chase at Newbury (the former Aon Chase) is last-chance saloon on the road to gold but it has had to be reopened after only four entries (new deadline 11 a.m. today).
Kauto Star, Denman, Long Run and Coneygree, a superb quartet of Gold Cup winners between 2007-15, had all taken the Aon.
The list of qualifiers for gold so far, if the pathfinder stats are to work out, are in order of BETDAQ betting offers, and it shows whether they have closed in price or are easier offers since the last bulletin. NQ: not quoted.
7.2 from 6.6 Don Poli (won RSA Chase, Cheltenham; Lexus Chase, Leopardstown 2015)
8.0 from 7.2 Cue Card (won King George, Kempton, Boxing Day 2015)
12.0 from 52.0 Smad Place (won Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury 2015)
NQ from 310.0 Coneygree (won Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015)
CHAMPIONS FILE: FELIX CUT BY 25 POINTS
Champion Chase (Cheltenham, 16 March) The qualifiers for the title from the top trial races are, in BETDAQ betting order, with the biggest closer, Felix Yonger (pictured):
1.93 from 3.0 Un De Sceaux (won Clarence House Chase 2016)
5.9 from 4.8 Sprinter Sacre (won Champion Chase 2013, won Desert Orchid Chase 2015)
24.0 from 9.4 Sire De Grugy (won Champion Chase 2014; won Tingle Creek Chase 2015)
9.6 from 10.5 Dodging Bullets (won Clarence House Chase 2015, Champion Chase 2015)
15.0 from 14.5 Special Tiara (second Tingle Creek Chase 2015)
20.0 from 45.0 Felix Yonger (won Tied Cottage Chase, Punchestown, 2016)
NQ Don Cossack (won Kinloch Bare Chase 2016)
CHAMPIONS FILE: FAUGHEEN EVEN FIRMER
Champion Hurdle (Cheltenham, 15 March) The Kingwell Hurdle on February 26 at Wincanton is the final Champion Hurdle trial of any note.
The New One took the Haydock Park Champion Hurdle Trial for the second year running, while Faugheen added to his CV in the Irish Champion Hurdle.
The qualifiers for the Champion Hurdle title from the top trial races so far are in BETDAQ betting order:
1.44 from 1.69 Faugheen (Cheltenham Champion Hurdle 2015, Punchestown Champion Hurdle 2015, Christmas Hurdle, Kempton 2015, Irish Champion Hurdle 2016)
20.0 from 23.0 The New One (won Haydock Park Champion Hurdle Trial 2016)
21.0 from 17.0 Identity Thief (won Fighting Fifth Hurdle, 2015)
25.0 from 8.6 Nichols Canyon (Punchestown Champion Novice Hurdle 2015 and Hattons Grace Hurdle 2015)
80.0 from 52.0 Top Notch (second Fighting Fifth Hurdle)
NQ from 150.0 Wicklow Brave (third Fighting Fifth Hurdle)
MORE IN THE CAUSE OF GETTING THE OVERS
My hand has been forced on the Grand National. Last night perusing my eyes (I love tautology) over the betting market, I saw that – suddenly, for no reason I could fathom – two leading bookmakers who had been showing 40-1 a horse for weeks now suddenly would take only 20-1, maybe not even that for money.
The horse that had halved in price is Cause Of Causes, one of the three I picked for this column and who ran well in last year’s race. Then I added two and two together and made this assumption.
The horse’s trainer, Gordon Elliott, was over for the Musselburgh Scottish champions meeting, and had a winner for me there yesterday – Jetstream Jack – so had he given a Press interview, or had he, himself, offloaded a few bob while this side of the Irish Sea.
Whatever, the result is the same: big firms running for cover or suddenly hit with liabilities about Cause Of Causes, which was 37.0 on BETDAQ. I’ll take that to win 100 ante-post: that’s 2.7pts win.
HELTER-SKELTON FOR DOUBLE IN 10 MINUTES
Get a double up inside 10 minutes! Dan Skelton, who needs three more winners to match last season’s 73, is four-handed at Market Rasen.
His juvenile hurdler, Kasakh Noir (2.00), may have seemed disappointing when third at Newbury on the last day but we now know he was unlikely to concede weight to the winner, Fixe Le Nap, 28-lengths scorer at Warwick since, and the runner-up, Tommy Silver, who took Sunday’s Scottish Triumph Hurdle by 11 lengths.
Three Colours Red was one of those hammered by Fixe Le Nap at Warwick, and Wolfcatcher was receiving weight when he beat Sikandar before that one was 22 lengths last to Tommy Silver on Sunday.
Skelton should complete an across-the-cards double in the space of 10 minutes or so, via Yes I Did (1.50 Sedgefield), a winner at Southwell in November.
Mick Easterby is in good form with figures of 1331330 going into today, and could have found another opportunity for Chasma (2.20), who won a slow race at Uttoxeter, then tried a trip too far.
It’s a poor contest against maidens or trainers out of form, with the glass horse See The Legend the likely danger, until we see what Sue Smith can do with the Nicky Henderson cast-off, Charlie Wingnut.
Verko (2.55) is up 20lb since he won the middle one of his hat-trick over CD in early December, and My Friend George is another penalised recent Sedgefield scorer.
Edmund has been off for almost a year, so I’m giving Bennys Well a chance to bounce back. He is about a stone lower than at this time a year ago.
Shrewd or what! Iain Jardine took the Scottish County Hurdle on the Musselburgh Sunday card, so keep an eye on Heart O Annandale (3.25), with Henry Brooke booked.
Darsi Dancer, the only other CD winner in the race, has been badly out of form lately.
I shall also have a pound on Snuker, banking on first-time blinkers to revive this hurdles and chase winner for Lucy Alexander, after trainer James Ewart’s double at Musselburgh yesterday.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9)
BET 8pts win (nap) KASAKH NOIR (2.00 Market Rasen)
BET 6pts win CHASMA (2.20 Sedgefield)
BET 2pts win and place BENNYS WELL (2.55 Sedgefield)
BET 2pts win on each HEART O ANNANDALE and SNUKER (3.25 Sedgefield)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double KASAKH NOIR (2.00 Market Rasen) and YES I DID (1.50 Sedgefield)
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