ALL THIS TALK ABOUT BETTING! Daqman says the war of words about betting chat on Channel-4, a plea for ITV to change the format, misses the point about the real nature of the product and what punters need to get value.
LINGFIELD 19.0 SHOT FANCIED: Daqman has a 6.0 nap at Sandown, and explains why 19.0 (Lingfield) and 11.5 (Yarmouth) bets have chances elsewhere on a day of five race meetings in England.
HATE TO ‘MENCH’ IT! TV TIPPING IS BULL
The same people used to read comics in the loo. So said Confucius, my nickname for a friend many years past, who liked to give his advice in sentences short and pithy (come on, pronounce it right; he was a seriously good guy!).
He was talking about fans of the ‘telly.’ He never had one in his home, no more than he did an electric kettle or a vacuum cleaner.
Radio, stove and tin whistler, long-handled brush all ended up ‘on the tip’ when he died, along with dozens of old copies of the Sporting Chronicle (don’t worry; you’re too young), albums featuring Sandy Denny and rare pictures of Isabelle Corey (I told you, you were too young).
Just before he departed this mortal coil, he watched a big race at my house one day, but was frustrated into once more rejecting the medium: ‘Won’t they ever stop talking and hogging the camera; you can’t get a horse in the picture edgewise.’
He would have been right bang up alongside Mark Johnston in his Racing Post grievances against Channel-4 (‘drop all betting talk’) but particularly when Johnston declares: ‘The coverage (of betting) is ridiculous and it’s bad for both industries.’
On behalf of Confucius and punters everywhere, if I may point out the good, the bad and the ugly (still too young?) of the case…
Punters’ pet hate is to see a newspaper, website or TV coverage containing so many tips that one of them is bound to come up; then afterwards have to hear/read the crowing about ‘picking the winner.’
One of the Channel-4 team seems to try every conceivable ‘mench’ (the old word for tipping where you name-drop most of the field in most of the races in the hope that one horse mentioned will win).
Alongside The Mench Man, there’s one so coy that you can’t make up your mind: Is he hiding a great talent for tipping (and backing the winners himself!) or is he revealing his complete lack of ability to pick a winner!
But the point about the Johnston diatribe is that Channel-4 does not talk about betting in a way that is useful to the intelligent punter (nor does any newspaper I know, except in parts of the Post itself.. and you get the feeling they don’t even know it themselves).
It’s not worth the professional bothering to listen to ‘the telly’. I remember once upon a time Tony Morris, perhaps the Post’s most respected writer, saying that he watched Channel-4 Racing with the volume turned down.
The only reality in betting talk (just show the list!) is whether a horse is value in the market, what movement there is in the market, and whether that movement in the market is suggestive of a good or bad run, and why.
No newspaper or website – and certainly no TV channel – shows ANY comparison between the price a horse SHOULD be and the odds on offer, or any understanding of how to use that knowledge.
The odd columnist purports to deal in value but in a newspaper world of cheap headlines and little substance, he doesn’t really have to explain in any detail. In most papers, mediocrity rules, ok. And the Racing Post is a monopoly as a trade paper.
Even if the telly understood the real nature of the product, the price a horse should be is too difficult for them. Yet one of the basic ways of pricing up is to convert ratings into odds (working out the probabilities from ‘future ratings’ for the race, not the base ratings for the horse).
And guess who is one of Channel-4’s long-standing, blinking presenters? None other than one of the big names from the biggest ratings organisation the country has ever known!
So, yes, he is being coy! He knows the jocular betting jabber is a load of old Bull (still too young?).
The Racing Post has future ratings listed at the far right of each horse. Take the 3.35 at Lingfield today (yes, please take it; it’s a class 6, and I’ve forgotten my pin).
In this race, the Post ratings (RPR) have joint top, Babyfact and Johnny Splash, but the horse at the front of the ‘betting forecast’ is John Joiner. And the tip in the ‘verdict’ below the race ‘spotlight’ is Diamond Charlie. Below the verdict is a thing called Postdata, which tips a fifth horse, Willow Spring.
Apologies for not asking on your behalf what the office dog, Ben, fancies for the race. With all those selections already, I think it’s got distemper.
Incidentally, the Post betting forecast is usually done to 130% overround, so you can tell it’s on behalf of bookmakers. BETDAQ offers on this particular race add up to 114% at the time of writing.
HERO CAN TAKE THE BATON OFF RUNNER
4.10 Lingfield Amanda Perrett is striking at 50% and her record with debutants at Lingfield is 3-4. All in all, Divine Prince is interesting, particularly trading 19.0 in the BETDAQ orange, early mouse.
6.05 Sandown A high stall is usually curtains at Sandown but Discreet Hero’s style is the late run from off the pace which won him a class 3 at York.
He couldn’t quite make the same impression raised to class 2 at Windsor but plummets two grades here to class 4.
The favourite, Olympic Runner, may be beatable, an 8lb rise taking him up the ladder from class 5. You can always have a saver but I’ll be content with a place to cover my win bet on Discreet Hero.
6.45 Yarmouth How do we deserve this, a class 2? The trainers’ answer is in the negative; only seven runners.
Majeed, who goes well fresh, has a reputation as an AW horse, but ran well at Ascot in the summer of last year. He could outstay them off a fast pace set by Demonstration.
His trainer, David Simcock, shows a massive 55-point level-stakes profit on this course so worth a pound at 11.5 this morning on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20pts)
BET 1pt win and place DIVINE PRINCE (4.10 Lingfield)
BET 4pts win and place (nap) DISCREET HERO (6.05 Sandown)
BET 2pts win and place MAJEED (6.45 Yarmouth)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2 x 2pt win doubles DISCREET HERO (6.05 Sandown) with EL HAYEM and SIR RODERIC (7.40 Sandown)
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
