GALWAY: THREE OUT OF FOUR: Daqman had a dry day at Goodwood yesterday but made it three winners out of four at the Galway Festival with a double on the Weld winners. There was a no-score draw in his challenge to the Racing Post and they still stand at Daqman 57, Pricewise 25. Today they clash in the 2.00, 2.35 and 3.45 Goodwood, and the 5.30 Galway Plate.
GUINEAS WINNERS GALORE! Four Daqman Fortune Cookies line up at Goodwood this week, starting with Awtaad in the Sussex Stakes today, involved in a rare clash of the 2,000 Guineas winners of England (Galileo Gold), Ireland (Awtaad) and France (The Gurkha).
AND VALUE GALORE ON BETDAQ: Daqman finds Goodwood bets at 9.0, 12.0 (twice) 14.0 and 16.0 in the incredible value BETDAQ orange, which had, race by race, overrounds this morning of (in percentages) 106, 103, 103, 104, 113, 108 and 109, compared with Total SP returns on the opening day of 123, 114, 122,118, 126, 113 (after withdrawal) and 115.
TAKE 16.0 THIS DIAMOND IN THE ROUGH
2.00 Goodwood Stakes Last year’s winner of this gives you some idea what you’re up against. Sands Of Fortune was a maiden when he scored and he raced only one more time, pulled up, after this great rough and tumble.
Deleting the older horses aged eight and nine takes out four, and I wouldn’t persevere with Percy Veer, whose only Flat turf success was in his maiden two years ago.
But the unusual marathon trip (2m 5f) means that most the field are ‘hidden horses’, unknowns at this distance.
Only No Heretic, Teak (won this in 2014), Wind Place And Sho and Wordiness have already won beyond 2m, with Wind Place And Sho the young improver.
But their breeding indicates a potential say in this for Diamond Joel and, yet again, Wind Place And Sho, while Moscato has placed beyond 2m and now has his ground.
Moscato – drawn 2 – likes to go with the pace and is the type of dour stayer that can manage the hill at the end of this gruelling contest. Diamond Joel is another who likes to lead, and another well drawn to do so in gate 3.
Diamond Joel was second at Chester in June on his first run of the year, returned to Mick Channon, who is having a great season. Third horse home was Communicator, winless since August 2012.
Oceane is with the right yard for a race like this but has his quirks and won only a slow-run race on the last day.
Ones to come out of the pack are Star Rider, who beat Wind Place And Sho last backend, and The Cashel Man, eye-catchingly staying on at the finish of the Northumberland Plate Consolation.
VERDICT: Diamond Joel is the pick of the BETDAQ orange this morning at around 16.0, with Star Rider at 14.0.
HARRISON LOOKS SOLID FOR A PLACE
2.35 Goodwood (Gordon Stakes) This is a tricky mix on form stats: six winners in the decade finished in the first three at Royal Ascot, but four had scored only in maidens or handicaps.
Sir Michael Stoute farms this one, with figures of 1121 since 2008, and gives himself two chances via Platitude and Ulysses.
How does Mark Johnston, who says the game is random and unpredictable, figure this one out: there was barely a length between Houses Of Parliament and Platitude when third and fourth at Chester in May and again when first and second at Newmarket three weeks back.
He could respond that Harrison, about 12lb behind Platitude at Ascot on the soft, was only a short-head off the same horse on firm in the Newmarket race (Prize Money ‘unsuited by the ground.’).
Ulysees and Shogun have finished behind in the Derbys of Epsom and The Curragh, and Shogun, having won only his maiden – always a bad sign – does not appeal.
Ulysees may be the pick of the Stoute pair, while Harrison seems to be improving all the time, yet is twice the price at 9.0 offers in the BETDAQ orange this morning. Looks solid for a place.
AWTAAD CAN TURN ROUND FORM ON FIRM
3.10 Goodwood (Sussex Stakes) This goes to an ace miler, and punters usually know who it is, with seven winning favourites in the last eight years, six of them odds on.
Three-year-olds have won six of the last eight, but you still have to choose between three Guineas winners, all of whom are used to cut in the ground this season, and are meeting for the second time. It could be very tactical.
My Fortune Cookie, Awtaad, winner of the Irish version, therefore looks big at 7.8. Though the Newmarket Guineas winner, Galileo Gold, runner-up to him at the Curragh, reversed the placings at Ascot, the ground at the royal meeting was soft.
French Guineas hero The Gurkha split them that day (not with the best of runs), and he was the choice of BETDAQ punters, favourite in the orange this morning.
But the Sussex seems all down to the ground. Have they chosen right? It’s a king of kings race, but Awtaad is the one with the sire who gets most firm-surface winners and he’s also the best price.
The snag with all my fathomings this morning is that the course has been watered, ahead of a prediction that there might be some rain this morning.. Who would be a tipster!
APPLAUSE FOR GLOBAL REVENGE..
3.45 Goodwood (Molecomb Stakes) The winner has usually had between three and five starts, though last year’s had had just the one run, one win, like Nayyar and Springbourne.
Mark Johnston runs two but it’s not his race. Yesterday I warned about the trap of choosing two of his four runners in the handicap; you’d probably be on the wrong two. Exactly what happened to Pricewise (sorry about the schadenfreude).
But my turn to be humble after Boynton (head held high) failed for me yesterday. I read his race wrong; thought it was greenness not attitude. Now Im not so sure.
The Last Lion beat Global Applause in the Norfolk at Royal Ascot but Global Applause struggled on the soft ground, and his National Stakes win on a sound surface was boosted by Mehmas in the Coventry.
5.25 Goodwood Afjaan has had only five races in his life, in the last one narrowly beaten by Red Box, who went on to win a classy Listed recently.
Afjaan has started favourite in all four races since his maiden. By contrast Czech it Out wins rarely, and at a big price, including over CD for local trainer Amanda Perrett
UP THE JUNCTION! CLARCAM THE DANGER
5.30 Galway Plate There’s been just one winner this century with more than 10st 13lb.,and only one of double-figure age in 20 years.
That seems to knock top and bottom off this haandicap.
But I was impressed with (sixth last year) Alelchi Inois at Punchestown on the last day, and he could improve past the 2014 winner, Road To Riches, on the sounder surface.
Clarcam went into my notebook last season and he’s kept his handicap mark down with two runs over hurdles in preparation for this. Shantou Flyer returned to form on the last day.
Gordon Elliott is ‘doing a Johnston’ with five runners but Shadow Catcher likes to lead and Killer Crow could probably do with some rain. Henry De Bromead has four runners, including last year’s winner, Shanahan’s Turn
I like the profile of Emma Lavelle’s Junction Fourteen and her stable is in form, and I shall stick with Clarcam. If his prep runs had been over fences, he’d probably have several pounds more in the handicap. Both my bets are around 12.0
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points, except where stated)
2.00 Goodwood
BET 2pts win and place on each STAR RIDER and DIAMOND JOEL
2.45 Goodwood
BET 7pts win ULYSEES, and 4pts win and place HARRISON
3.10 Goodwood
Fortune-Cookie Bet: 20pts win AWTAAD
3.35 Goodwood
BET 10pts win GLOBAL APPLAUSE
5.25 Goodwood
BET 12pts win (nap) AFJAAN
5.30 Galway
BET 3pts win and place on each CLARCAM and JUNCTION FOURTEEN
DAQ MULTIPLES:
2pts win double GLOBAL APPLAUSE (3.35 Goodwood) and AFJAAN (5.25 Goodwood
£25 IN FREE BETS
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