20-1 CUP CLASSIC FROM DAQMAN: After a 12.5 Thursday scorer on Betdaq, Daqman landed winners at 20-1 and 11-4 SP yesterday, with the 20-1 shot Classic Seniority taking the Ayr Bronze Cup another big hit against Pricewise, so that Daqman now leads his challenge to the Racing Post tipster 76-32 before their clash again today in the 2.00, 2.35 and 3.45 at Ayr and 2.50 Newbury.
12.5 AND 10.0 VALUE ON BETDAQ: It’s been a week of winners every day from Daqman, with these excellent odds (Friday to Friday) for 14 hits:
WON 20-1 Classic Seniority
WON 6-1 Secret Number (from 12.5 Betdaq)
WON 6-1 Captain Colby (from 10.0 Betdaq)
WON 9-2 Swamp Fox (nap)
WON 11-4 Clem Fandango
WON 7-2 Left Hand
WON 10-3 Sheikhzayedroad
WON 5-2 Wall Of Fire
WON 2-1 Upstaging
WON 10-11 Atty Persse
WON 10-11 Cloudberry
WON 4-5 Churchill
WON (place) Bunce (4th 14-1)
WON (lay) Abdon (3rd 9-4)
GOLD AND SILVER ABC: Today Daqman takes you through an ABC guide to all the best drawn horses in both the Ayr Silver Cup and the Ayr Gold Cup.
KING LOUIS MASSIVE AT BETDAQ 34.0
2.35 Ayr (Silver Cup): Your first decision today – if you are hunting Silver and Gold – is whether to follow the trends or bet with the percentages seemingly against you. As sprint after sprint goes to low numbers, those low numbers are at shorter odds.
But, if you go for ‘better’ odds on a high stall, you have to face the fact that long odds generally produce winners over a period; short-haul trends produce them instantly but the trends rarely last, and you don’t know when the bubble will burst.
Yesterday the long odds were still available (20-1 Classic Seniority was a steal) despite the obvious trend. That’s because punters – and sometimes bookmakers – take time to catch up.
I had warned you yesterday that the Thursday sprint at Ayr went by stall to 1, 3, 7, 2. Well, yesterday’s two big-field sprints, including the Ayr Bronze Cup, went 11, 9, 20, 1 and then 5, 7, 8, 17. So, over the two days, that’s 10 out of 12 places in three heats going to stalls 1 to 11.
In today’s Silver, the eye immediately goes to the Great St Wilfrid consolation scorer, Roudee (in 8), a winner on the soft at Doncaster earlier. But he was a long way behind in the Bronze Cup last year when 5lb lower.
Richard Fahey has the best record in this but his three runners are all drawn high(ish). Michael Dods has won the bingo call for the best numbers with My Name Is Rio in stall 6 and Get Knotted in 9.
My Name Is Rio hasn’t shown improvement in recent seasons; what you see is what you’ll get; though a CD winner, Get Knotted’s best form is over further (but so was Lincoln’s yesterday).
Eccleston was sixth in this Silver Cup a year ago, has 5lb less, and has got his ground, but all his best work is a grade lower. Stall 5. Though he’s done well in handicaps like this, Lexington Abbey (in 7) has only ever won in single-figure fields, and never with ‘soft’ in the going return. Ice Lord is in and out. He’s coming out of the one stall, back after a holiday.
An Saighdiur has had his day this season and must give weight all round here; he’s done well to win off 90; now saddled with 98. Stall 2.
Louis The Pious has crashed down the ratings and has won or placed in the gold cup.
Has won only on a sound surface but ran a cracker in a Group 3 on the soft in 2014. Lightly raced this year, a rebuilding year, according to the trainer.
Verdict: If there’s pace on, and there almost always is a cavalry charge, Get Knotted (14.5 on BETDAQ early mouse) should come with a late rattle as Lincoln did yesterday. Louis The Pious (huge at 34.0) looks primed for this and is the class horse of the contest. On the ‘wrong’ side, I’ve always liked George Bowen (13.5) but we’ll stick to the low stalls in this (and in the Gold unless the Silver tells us otherwise).
A CASE OF ABC: G FORCE BE WITH YOU
3.45 Ayr (Gold Cup) We have to take an early position with the low numbers. That would be from Growl (6.4 offers on BETDAQ), G Force (13.0), Jack Dexter (16.5), Nameitwhatyoulike (17.0), Hoof It (19.50), Brando (25.0), Watchable (34.0), Kimberella and Sir Robert Cheval (38.0), Ascription (46.0) and Perfect Pasture (50.0).
ASCRIPTION: Regularly hooded, though marked ‘first-time hood for new yard’ in the Racing Post. Group performer but absent for nearly a year.
Keith Dalgleish would become first Scottish-based trainer to win the gold’ since 1975. It would be a mighty training performance with this miler, whose target is the 7f Challenge Cup at Ascot in October.
BRANDO: Second in the Wokingham and runner-up again in a Group-2 at the The Curragh. Took a Group-3 sprint at Sandown (5f) in between. Has 9lb higher handicap mark but may not have finished improving and loves cut in the ground.
G FORCE Has not won since Haydock Sprint in 2014 (fourth in same race last year). Light year after long run of disappointments in the Pattern but has had wind op and down a stone in the last 12 months. Showed up well at Navan (soft) on the last day.
GROWL Everybody’s favourite – that’s just the trouble – as Stewards Cup fourth after back-to-back success in the summer on firm and on soft: 8lb higher than for last win.
HOOF IT Two out of three in the summer, including on soft but, at today’s difference in weights, well held by Orions Bow in Sccottish Stewards Cup, and has neotwon off today’s mark since 2011.
JACK DEXTER Grand mudlark; third in 2014 Champions Sprint at Ascot; and has run in 17 Group races. Not well drawn and hampered in the Wokingham, then found ground too firm over the minimum back on that course.
KIMBERELLA Has had a long season – 11 races – and on highest mark now after taking the York Dash in July, Hard to see him impriving again at age six.
NAMEITWHATYOULIKE: Goes for a hat-trick today, with the trainer deciding to claim off him to wipe out the penalty for his Listed win at York. A stone higher than when well in rear in the Silver Cup a year ago but clearly an improved horse, despite his age..
PERFECT PASTURE A long way behind in the Silver Cup last year but a stone better horse now, according to the handicapper, hit 10lb after shock win in the Scurry at The Curragh in July.
SIR ROBERT CHEVAL Badly drawn the last twice including in the Stewards Cup. Still could be anything after dwitch to sprint-ace trainer Robert Cowell. Has won over a mile so a late charge should be sustained by stamina.
WATCHABLE Pattern performer, placed three times without winning, since the Spring of last year, fifth in the 2015 Wokingham last time he was asked to take today’s rating into a handicap. Jockey Daniel Tudhope won yesterday’s Bronze.
Verdict: My 1-2-3-4 is Brando, G Force, Jack Dexter, Growl.
REST OF THE RACING: KINDLY BEST
2.00 Ayr Bletchley, a short head off Brave Anna in the Albany at Royal Ascot on the soft, should have most to fear from the hat-trick seeker Partitia, though that one doesn’t get any special mention from my man in the long grass.
And fillies can improve a ton at this stage, and all will be flat out to Erica Bing’s gallop if she can get across to lead. Shamsaya at 11.5 is improving all the time.
2.50 Newbury The soft ground suggests young horses with the lowest weights. Muzdawaj has more improvement in him.
7.10 Wolverhampton One for a trade here, though I hope to be raising a glass, celebrating from the Ayr Silver and Gold.
Kindly will appreciate the Tapeta surface and, from a favourable draw against the rail, is expected to try to make all: 3.5 your early position on BETDAQ.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 30 points unless stated)
BET 2pts win and place SHAMSAYA (2.00 Ayr)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 3.5pts win and place GET KNOTTED, and 1.5pts win and place LOUIS THE PIOUS (2.35 Ayr)
BET 2pts win and place MUZDAWAJ (2.50 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4pts win and place G FORCE, and 2pts win and place BRANDO (3.45 Ayr)
BET 10pts win (nap to win 20) KINDLY (7.10 Wolverhampton)
£25 IN FREE BETS
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