CJ CUP: What happens when tradition collides with sponsor naming rights? Well, you get a tournament with a name like this, The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, a nonsensical mouthful that is nevertheless the current official nomenclature for an event that has been a regular part of the schedule since the 1940s. Its namesake Lord Byron certainly paid his dues when it comes to being on the masthead; not only did he win the inaugural edition of this tournament in 1944, but he presided over it in-person every year from 1968 until his death in 2006, providing many lifelong memories for fans and players alike. I know this firsthand because my late father, Dewey Arnette, who played the PGA Tour from 1987-90, was fond of telling a story about Mr. Nelson approaching him on the putting green at the ’87 staging of this event, complimenting his putting stroke, then taking the putter out of his hands and remarking that someone he once knew used to make ’em all with one just like that. The moment really stuck with dad — he told the story for the rest of his life. Nelson was said to have that effect on many people, and his presence gave this tournament something special for many years.
The venue this week will be TPC Craig Ranch, a Tom Weiskopf design nestled in the suburbs of Dallas that has played host to this event since 2021. A par-71 that tips out at just over 7,400 yards, it’s a flat, sprawling layout with wide fairways and large green complexes, and, like most Texas courses, it’s heavily wind-affected. The players might luck out on the wind front, however, as according to the latest forecast for the week it may rain, but it won’t be too breezy. That means we can expect some super low scores, which is nothing new for this tournament, as it’s taken 23-under or better to get the job done here in each of the past five years (since the move to Craig Ranch, in other words), with last year’s champ Scottie Scheffler setting a new scoring record at 31-under. Scheffler (2.92) is back to defend and is a big favorite despite not having won since January, which is due in large part to the fact that he’s the only top-10 player in the field. I love betting on Scottie as much as anybody, but the price seems a bit short to me, especially in a birdie-fest situation like this, when there are a lot of guys who could heat up and win it. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Ryo HisatsuneĀ (46.0)-Ā When you think of the best young players on the PGA Tour, the 23-year-old Hisatsune may not be the first name that pops in your head, but he’s probably just as good as whoever you’re thinking of. Criminally underrated for such an accomplished player, Hisatsune has crept up to 33rd in the FedEx Cup points race after missing just one cut in 14 starts this season and logging four top-10s, including a runner-up at the Farmers Insurance Open. All four of those top-10 finishes have come at low-scoring, birdie-fest events like this one, and he’s posted 12-under or better on each occasion, so he’s very comfortable in the type of competitive atmosphere he’ll be faced with this week. Plus, he’s had success in this tournament, finishing T13 on debut in 2024, so he knows his way around TPC Craig Ranch. This feels like a great spot for him at a price like 46.0.
Eric ColeĀ (60.0)-Ā A consummate grinder who has finally established himself on golf’s highest level but is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory at age 37, Cole has been in great form lately, finding the top-15 in his last three starts, including a 6th-place showing in Myrtle Beach last time out. He’s always performed well on courses where you have to take it low, and his putting stats have been out of this world this year, as he currently ranks 2nd on Tour in putts per round and 1st in one-putt percentage. Someone who rolls the rock like that could certainly heat up on the flat, spacious greens at Craig Ranch, and Cole has a good record at this tournament that includes a 5th-place showing last year and a T23 in 2023. If there was ever a perfect week and perfect venue for him to finally break through for a victory, it’s this week, and this course.
Stephan JaegerĀ (90.0)-Ā For our longshot of the week I’m going with another grizzled veteran, one who’s had a habit in recent years of flashing on the first page of leaderboards early in the week before fading over the weekend. The latest example of this phenomenon came at last week’s PGA, when Jaeger opened with a lovely 67 and followed it up with a very respectable 70 in Friday to put himself right in the mix before sliding to a T18 finish. Jaeger has been close a couple of times this season, finishing T5 at the Farmers and T7 at the Valspar, and his lone PGA Tour victory also came in the state of Texas (2024 Houston Open), a state in which he generally plays well on account of the ubiquitous bermuda grass, his preferred playing surface (at least he plays like it’s his preferred surface…). He also has a nice record at this event which includes a T20 in 2024 and a T11 in 2023, so he’s shown that he can succeed at Craig Ranch. Given his resume and current form, I’m a bit surprised at how big Jaeger’s price is here and I’m happy to take a chance on him at around 90.0.
