NFL WEEK 7: We’re through six weeks of the 2016 NFL season and all we really know for sure is that the Patriots are good and the Browns are bad. Other than that, it’s all up for debate.
Are the 5-0 Vikings a genuine Super Bowl contender, or will they crumble as opponents attempt to expose their apparent deficiencies on offense? Can young, untested quarterbacks like Dak Prescott, Trevor Siemian, and Carson Wentz continue to perform at a high level as the playoff race heats up, or will they implode like young quarterbacks so often do and take their teams down with them? Is defending NFC champion Carolina finished, or will Cam Newton lead his team to a late-season surge? Have the defending Super Bowl champion Broncos been eclipsed in their own division by Kansas City or — gasp!— Oakland? And what in the world is wrong with Aaron Rodgers?
The last question will be on the tip of everyone’s tongue on Thursday night, when Rodgers and the suddenly-struggling Packers host division rival Chicago (GB -7.5, 45.5). The Bears are led by journeyman QB Brian Hoyer, who is now on his fifth team since 2011, and are are currently just 1-5. They’ve been competitive in each of their past three games, however, and Hoyer has been statistically better than Rodgers this season. Chicago was able to waltz into Lambeau last year and pull the upset on a Thursday night, and if it happens again we may see things shift to full Apocalypse Mode in Green Bay (some would argue that Ted Thompson making a midseason trade for a veteran, as he did this week with Knile Davis, is a sign that the apocalypse is already upon us).
Here are my favorite Week 7 games:
N.Y Giants vs. L.A. Rams (NYG -3, 43.5) *LONDON*
Recommendation: L.A. +3 at 1.83
This is the second straight week we’ve backed the Rams as 3-point ‘dogs– last week’s bet pushed after Detroit erased a 7-point 4th-quarter deficit to win 31-28, but the result did not dampen my enthusiasm for Jeff Fisher’s crew as they head to London for a date with the Giants.
Contrary to their reputation, the L.A. offense has actually begun to show signs of life in recent weeks, averaging 25.1 points per game over their last four contests despite three of those games being on the road. Quarterback Case Keenum has thrown for 265 yards or more in three consecutive games and had the best outing of his career last week, completing 27 of 32 passes for 321 yards and 3 touchdowns. If elite young running back Todd Gurley can finally break out with a big game– something that’s bound to happen any week now (*his impatient fantasy owners nod feverishly*)– then we may see a whole new narrative begin to develop around this L.A. team.
Keenum will have a chance to continue his run of good play against a Giants defense that ranks 23rd against the pass, and it’s difficult to trust a New York offense that has been held to 20 points or fewer four times in six games this season and has yet to crack the 30-point mark. The Giants had lost three straight prior to squeaking out a home win over Baltimore last week, and there’s little evidence that head coach Ben McAdoo has things moving in the right direction in his first year on the job. I expect the athletic, disruptive Rams defensive line to force Eli Manning into a couple of turnovers, and I like L.A. to win this one outright.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins (Buf -3, 43.5)
Recommendation: Miami +3 at 1.84
The Bills are a great reminder of just how quickly things can change in the NFL: after a Week 2 home loss to the Jets that saw Rex Ryan’s once-proud defense surrender nearly 500 yards and 37 points to a middling New York offense, Ryan was considered a dead man walking, his firing not a matter of “if” but “when.” Fast-forward four weeks and the Bills are now being mentioned among the AFC’s best teams thanks to a quartet of double-digit victories. They have a new offensive coordinator, Anthony Lynn, and seem to have re-discovered their identity as a hard-nosed, “ground and pound” team that nobody wants to play.
At least, that’s the narrative right now. But just as things were probably not quite as bad as they looked after Week 2, the current rush to proclaim the Bills a contender is probably a bit premature. I mean, look at their recent winning streak: they beat Arizona on a freakish day where Carson Palmer threw four picks, they beat a Patriots team that was starting a third-string quarterback, they beat the Rams despite being out-gained, and they beat San Francisco, possibly the league’s worst team at the moment. The Bills are still a team with a limited, one-dimensional offense and a defense that, while solid, can be exploited.
The Dolphins haven’t been great on offense this season, but their line is finally heathy now and they absolutely plowed over a solid Pittsburgh defense last week, rushing for 222 yards in an upset victory. They also average 65 more passing yards per game than Buffalo, and unlike the Bills they have a legitimate perimeter threat in Jarvis Landry. If the big-money defensive line can play to their potential then Miami has an excellent chance to pull the mild upset in this classic Buy Low/Sell High opportunity.
Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (Ari -2, 43.5)
Recommendation: Arizona -2 at 1.91
Seattle is 4-1 and coming off a victory over the red-hot Atlanta Falcons, but I believe Pete Carroll’s bunch is more vulnerable than they have been in years past. The defense is excellent, as usual, but they uncharacteristically blew some coverages in the secondary last week and will now have to go on the road and face one of the league’s most sophisticated downfield passing attacks. Plus, defensive end Michael Bennett, one of the unit’s best players, injured his knee last week and may miss Sunday’s game.
The real concern, however, is with the Seattle offense. Russell Wilson is obviously still bothered by his knee and his mobility has been affected, which has made him a less effective player. Christine Michael runs hard and Jimmy Graham is beginning to come on, but the Seahawks rank in the bottom half of the league in both total offense and points scored, so there just isn’t a whole lot to get excited about on that side of the ball.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have the potential to be as explosive as any offense in the NFL. Second-year running back David Johnson has been a revelation, but the Cards will still live and die on the right arm of Carson Palmer and their talented receiving corps. In Week 10 of last year Palmer hung 39 points and 363 passing yards on these Seahawks, so the ‘Hawks certainly know what he’s capable of, and that was before Johnson’s emergence brought true balance to the Arizona attack. And we haven’t even mentioned the Arizona defense, a unit that ranks fourth in the league in yards allowed and sixth in points allowed. This is a statement game for the Cards— playing at home against the division leader, this is a prime opportunity to put the early-season inconsistency behind them and begin a Super Bowl push. I think they get the job done.
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (Den -7.5, 40.5)
Recommendation: Denver -7.5 at 2.0
Despite a 4-2 record and a position atop the AFC South standings, all is not well in Houston. Simply put, the Texans have not looked like a good team in recent weeks, and there may not be any quick fixes on the horizon. The defense has taken a step back in J.J. Watt’s absence, surrendering over 25 ppg in their last four contests after allowing 26 combined points in weeks 1 and 2. But the real concern is the offense, specifically the play of new quarterback Brock Osweiler.
Osweiler, of course, was supposed to be Denver’s quarterback of the future, but the Texans threw big money at him in the offseason and he decided to bolt. Based on his play so far this year, I’m sure Broncos GM John Elway feels like he dodged a bullett— not only has Osweiler been maddeningly inconsistent, but he seems to be regressing and losing confidence. He now ranks 30th in the NFL with a 74.1 passer rating, and aside from some late-game heroics last week the Houston offense has been downright painful to watch lately.
And now it’s a return trip to Denver for Osweiler, where he’ll face a championship defense that will be out for blood after an uncharacteristically poor performance against San Diego in Week 6. That game was on a Thursday night, meaning Denver had a “mini-bye” last week, so the players have had plenty of time to study the Texans and dissect the performance of a guy they saw every day in practice for the past two years. I just can’t see this turning out well for Osweiler… and on the other side of the ball, Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian should be fully recovered from a shoulder injury that caused him to miss Week 5 and affected his performance last week. The Denver offense certainly isn’t explosive, but they won’t have to be in this one— I think there’s a legitimate chance that the Denver defense outscores the Houston offense. This could get ugly…
