NFL WEEK 10: Intriguing matchups dot the schedule in Week 10, as several division leaders will be tested and an astounding eleven games currently feature point spreads of 3.5 or less. The word “parity” is almost always used in a derogatory manner by NFL aficionados, but a balanced league is an exciting league, and this Sunday evening should be filled with the usual assortment of close calls and crazy finishes.
Of course, for all the talk about evenly-matched teams and exciting games, the week sure gets started with a clunker, as the winless Cleveland Browns travel to Baltimore to face the Ravens on Thursday night. Baltimore is a 7.5-point favorite at BETDAQ, and it’s difficult to imagine how anyone could be excited about chucking money at the Browns after watching them leave their best quarterback on the bench last week in the name of “development.” The Ravens are tied for the AFC North lead at 4-4 and all four of their losses have come by 8 points or fewer, so they’re not likely to let their guard down in this situation— home game, national TV audience, division rival. Anything but a methodical Baltimore win would be a surprise.
Here are my thoughts on the rest of the Week 10 slate:
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers (Car -3, 44)
Recommendation: Kansas City +3 at 1.91
Conventional wisdom is that Carolina has now found its sea legs after a rough start to the season, and with the NFC South still in reach Cam Newton and Co. are primed for a playoff push. Problem is, the Carolina team that these people are imagining in their heads doesn’t jibe with the reality of the 2016 Panthers, a team that ranks 29th in passing defense and has produced 14 points or fewer three times in eight games.
Last week was possibly their worst offensive showing of the season, as they managed just 244 total yards and 13 points against a middling Rams defense. And the problems in the secondary are real— we’re past the midway point of the season and only the sieve-like defenses in Atlanta, Indianapolis, and New Orleans have surrendered more yards through the air than the once-formidable Panthers. In other words, the emperor has no clothes— these Panthers are no longer a championship-caliber team.
The Chiefs may not be Super Bowl bound either, but they’re in the midst of a 4-game winning streak that’s seen them play well on both sides of the ball. The defense is surrendering just 18.9 points per game this season, and this week the offense will welcome back both starting quarterback Alex Smith and starting running back Spencer Ware, two key cogs who missed last week’s game with head injuries. Smith played some of the best football of his career over the first half of the season and should be able to pick apart the leaky Carolina secondary. Both of Kansas City’s losses have come on the road, but I think they’re the better team in this situation and a good bet as a 3-point ‘dog.
Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints (NO -2.5, 48.5)
Recommendation: New Orleans -2.5 at 1.91
The Broncos still have the respect of the betting public, but the big picture trend lines for the defending Super Bowl champs are not good. They’ve lost three of their past five games, their excellent defense is beginning to show signs of vulnerability, especially in the front seven, and, most troublingly, their offense has been downright putrid in recent weeks, plummeting all the way to 28th in the Total Offense rankings.
The season-ending injury to starting running back C.J. Anderson hurt, but it’s the passing attack, specifically the play of quarterback Trevor Siemian, that has been the bigger issue. Siemian evidently isn’t equipped to be much more than a “game manager” at this stage of his career, and with him under center the Denver offense simply lacks juice. That being said, they’ll never have a better opportunity to shine than this week, as the Saints rank 31st in yards allowed and are surrendering nearly 30 points per game.
But it’s not all gloom and doom in the Big Easy— the Saints have won 4 of 5 to even up their record at 4-4, and they’ve been doing it behind an offense that leads the NFL in both total yards and passing yards and averages better than 30 points per game. It’ll be strength vs. strength when Brees and the Saints line up against the stout Denver D, but the fact that this game is in the Superdome, where Brees and Co. are nearly unstoppable, gives the Saints a decided edge here. The Siemian-led Denver offense just won’t be able to keep up.
Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (Pit -2.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Pittsburgh -2.5 at 1.91
I know, I know. The Cowboys have been running roughshod over the rest of the league for the past few weeks, and those unfortunate enough to bet against them have paid in cold, hard cash. There’s no denying what they’ve done, but I’ll say this: Pittsburgh matches up well on both sides of the ball, and if Ben Roethlisberger is close to fully healthy the Steelers should be able to take care of business here.
The first order of business when playing Dallas is stopping the run— Ezekiel Elliott and the formidable o-line are the engines of the offense. This is easier said than done, obviously, but the Steelers are tough up front, allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, so they should be able to put up a fight. On the other side of the ball, the Cowboys have been vulnerable in the secondary, surrendering big yardage totals whenever they’ve faced a top-notch passing attack (364 yards to Kirk Cousins, 294 to Aaron Rodgers), and Pittsburgh’s passing attack is among the very best in the league.
And yes, I know that Ben Roethlisberger wasn’t quite himself last week in his first game back from a minor knee procedure. Trusting Roethlisberger to play at an elite level is a small leap of faith, but it’s one I’m willing to take considering what we’ve seen out of him throughout his career. No quarterback in the NFL plays through more injuries than Big Ben, and perhaps no players seems less affected by their ailments. The Steelers are reeling at 4-4 and badly need this game… I don’t think they’ll be denied by a rookie quarterback and a mediocre secondary.
