HENNESSY GOLD CUP VALUE WARNING: Coneygree and Silviniaco Conti are swerving the Hennessy Gold Cup so the so-called value tipsters have got it all wrong today, warns Daqman. But that could mean there’s hidden value in the BETDAQ list of offers! He’s working on it.
12.0 SHOT WILL LOVE TOWCESTER HILL: Daqman has six bets today at Ludlow and Towcester. His banker is at Ludlow but he relies on the Towcester hill to bring out the best in his 12.0 outsider.
S’MAD WORLD! HE NEEDS TO BE A DENMAN
Play the game, guys. One of the problems with training horses; the other trainers don’t always do what you want them to!
Alan King can expect Smad Place to carry top weight in the Hennessy Gold Cup (November 26), with Paul Nicholls deciding that Saphir Du Rheu not Silviniaco Conti is his number one, and Mark Bradstock swerving the contest with Coneygree.
Though that would put him up 13lb on last year’s rating when he won the race, Smad Place was to have been only 4lb higher in weight but will now carry 8lb more instead, as 11st 12lb top weight.
Saphir Du Rheu, who was giving him 8lb when a well-beaten fifth last year, receives 13lb on Saturday fortnight, so is a total of 21lb better for just less than 22 lengths, though every pound will weigh ‘more’ if the going is soft.
The Hennessy appears to have proved its quality in recent years, with 10 winners out of 13 carrying 11st to 11st 12lb but the fact remains that only two since Burrough Hill Lad 32 years ago have scored with the 11-12. You have to be a Denman to do it in a good year.
The other successful at that weight, Trabolgan, was scoring on a sound surface in a poor field (his 11-12 was carried off a rating of 151, whereas Smad Place goes into the Hennessy off 166, more than a stone better horse).
So it’s debatable whether Smad Place is value at 12.5 in the BETDAQ ante-post orange this morning. The 23.0 Coneygree, though seven points better than the bookies, certainly isn’t, since he is unlikely to run.
All that, of course, suggests value among the other offers to choose from. So place your bet for an early position on your fancy. Then watch this space for the winner!
Be warned that Midnight Prayer, Seeyouatmidnight and Onenightinvienna are others too doubtful to risk an investment at this stage.
TRADE TARA BUT A BANKER IN MY VIEW
1.35 Ludlow Meanwhile, Kingy marches on with 13 in the frame from his last 15 starters; he lost yesterday only when I picked him yesterday (with the aaver only third)!
Tara View was progressive until finally breaking her bumper maiden. I expect her to be ridden handy, if not from the front, as she has stamina in her breeding, so could still be a trade horse, despite floating around the even-money mark this morning.
2.35 Ludlow Marlais is an aptly named sort by Dylan Thomas but he’s only four and has had just one race under Rules over here in his life, three in the French provinces on the Flat.
The grey Moscato has been around for years – three to be precise, so started out when Marlais was being weened – but has turned a bit quirky, so hurdles are tried to give him a new mindset, though he won five out of six on the Flat.
The 5lb penalty carried by Ballyhill for winning at Hereford has been carried successfully just once in the decade but Ryan Hatch can still claim 3lb here, so nullifying 60% of the extra burden.
3.05 Ludlow Evan Williams, who won this last year with King Massini, has Still Believing in a slot that’s within a pound of that one’s successful weight.
A 5.0 offer on BETDAQ as I write, Still Believing is a standing dish on the Ludlow course, with form figures there of P310234112 from ten starts, 311 in seniors’ chases.
Adam Du Breteau is gradually improving fluency at his fences; Basford Ben prefers Carlisle; Big Casino is 10 now, up in weight and grade and has always been beaten at today’s trip. Letbeso has failed to make the step up in grade.
Moss On The Mill, a talented hurdler, has his second go at chasing; the first attempt came to nought in 2014.
3.45 Towcester There are three or four with chances of winning this but, when they’ve cried enough, Thomas Shelby will be staying on up the hill.
So the 12.0 best BETDAQ offer this morning looked big. The strapping chasing sort is trained by Alan King, which is where I came in. Kingy is 50% (4-8) in bumpers here.
DAQMAN’S TIPS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 is a banker)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) TARA VIEW (1.35 Ludlow)
BET 4pts win TRIPLE CHIEF (2.05 Ludlow)
BET 6pts win PINKIE BROWN (2.15 Towcester)
BET 8pts win BALLYHILL (2.35 Ludlow)
BET 5pts win STILL BELIEVING (3.05 Ludlow)
BET 2pts win and place THOMAS SHELBY (3.45 Towcester)
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