BETDAQ VALUE REMAINS YOUR SAFEST BET: Just when you thought it was safe to go back to the bookies, after the defeats of Bristol De Mai and Sizing John, Faugheen was another mystery flop at 1-6 SP in the Ryanair at Leopardstown yesterday. Daqman warns: stay at odds against while strange results persist in the mud, and that means staying with BETDAQ value. He swerves the big meetings for a supernap at Taunton.
NO WONDER DAQMAN IS 33 POINTS CLEAR: The day starts with Daqman in a 10-5 lead over Pricewise of the Racing Post in the search for value, and he’s 33 points clear (+23 against –10) to a single-unit stake.
RUBY A REAL GEM FOR HENDERSON
12.05 Newbury Alan King had Redicean in this but ran him to win 10 lengths at Kempton in the week. He now relies on Nayati, whose dam is a sister to Theinval, five times a winner (18 places!) for Nicky Henderson. One for your Daq Multiples.
12.40 Newbury Nicky Henderson’s record in this race in the decade is a fantastic 1113111111. From four acceptors earlier in the week, his final choice is Royal Ruby, by Yeats out of a Bustino mare and closely related to his stamina-packed Barbers Shop.
Henderson sees ‘Ruby’ as a high-class staying chaser of the future but the ground conditions should play to his strengths today.
First Flow looks a formidable rival after an easy Lingfield success from a subsequent winner but has to give 5lb to Royal Ruby, as does the Ascot winner on good, Dell Oro.
1.15 Newbury Oliver Sherwood sprang a surprise in this last year with a 12-1 outsider. Now he introduces Auteuil heavy-ground winner Got Away, who has raced at Graded level but is still qualified for novice handicaps here.
Saint Calvados, for in-form trainer Harry Whittington, came away from his French career with a 5lb higher rating (143) than the filly Got Away after a hat-trick, but that is reflected in today’s weights.
Chirico Vallis quickly returned to an easy victory in novice company after falling when close up in an open handicap at Ludlow won by the now 143-rated Robinshill.
Chirico Vallis’s trainer, Neil Mulholland has emerged from a bad spell with five winners in the last fortnight, but I’ll take a chance on Saint Calvados.
DIABLE DANGER TO EAGLE SWOOP
1.50 Newbury Theligny won this same handicap last year on a sounder surface off 127, carrying 10st 6lb. This is an easier race (133 puts him on 11st 4lb) but he has no form in today’s ground.
Nicky Henderson’s Whisper won this as a five-year-old in 2013 and Brave Eagle (Yeats out of a Sinndar mare), who clearly has quality and stamina on his side, is the same age.
Huntsman Son has his toughest assignment to date as he attempts a hat-trick. It would be unusual if a seven-year-old beat off the younger horses.
Dynamite Dollars hat-trick bid failed at Haydock after autumn success at Chepstow and Exeter, and he was out of his depth in a Graded race at Sandown. Fences should be the making of him next year.
There was strong support last night for Fred Winter fifth Diable De Sivola, who had been second in a Grade 2 there, and ran well again last month, but those three races were all at Cheltenham, and his one win from eight was his very first hurdles heat. Worrying.
2.10 Haydock (Last Fling Chase) Harry The Viking, runner-up in this last year, is on the same mark and handed a 7lb claim, so should go close, back to form at Carlisle on his reappearance.
But the stable that beat him a year ago now saddles Emperor’s Choice in conditions he loves, 11lb lower than his winning mark here 13 months ago.
He ran in that race again but needed the outing and can do better today, with his yard scoring twice around Christmas.
Whiskey Chaser, from the family of a Grand National winner, won on the course earlier this month.
Gold Opera is up in trip nearly a mile on his last two wins. Lessons In Milan, a big horse with big feet, will prefer the mud to the sound surface of his Scottish National fifth.
Vieux Lille was second in the Tommy Whittle on todays’ course a year ago but his yard is very quiet, and has been missing strike badly in the last fortnight (12 out of 16 in the first five without winning).
The most likely winner is West of The Edge. He forged clear over 3m 5f at Warwick in the Spring (soft) and has kept his mark down for this with two recent runs back over hurdles.
MANDARIN DOGS ARE BARKING WUFF
2.25 Newbury (Mandarin Chase) The first three in the SP returns have won this every year for the last six seasons and, with Henllan Harri preferring top of the ground, and Grand Vision and Shotgun Paddy at the veteran stage now, I’m looking to the front of the market for sure.
Wuff beat Henllan Harri over 3m on the soft last Spring and both conditions and the weights are in his favour today.
Wuff hasn’t done much since but was not disgraced at Bangor earlier in the month (lost shoe) after an absence. He is a very big horse and the run would have been badly needed. If he doesn’t bounce, he should be in at the business end of this.
Potters Legend is down in grade for the first time since he ran in a novice chase at this meeting a year ago but cheekpieces and then blinkers haven’t taken him forward and he has to give weight all round today.
Knockanrawley, twice in the first four in the Eider Chase, stays all day but usually in his own time.
However, Jason Maguire galvanized him to win this Mandarin with 11st 12lb in 2013. David Bass and others have all failed since but he was short-headed at Ayr on the last day and is likely to place again.
Daklondike has been hiked 19lb up the handicap for winning two out of three on the soft and his recent form figures might have been 111 had he not been made to run within a couple of days of the first success.
3.00 Newbury (Challow Hurdle) This novices’ hurdle has been a strong guide over the years, with Reve De Sivola, Fingal Bay and Taquin de Seuil among its stars.
With his stable firing several blanks, and after saying goodbye to Cue Card, Colin Tizzard will be hoping that Kilbricken Storm can continue his sequence and boost the stable’s season.
Though his last success was over 3m, and the Albert Bartlett is the target, he drops back in trip but on a day when stamina should be at a premium.
It needed better ground for Dame Rose to turn around Newbury form with Cap Soleil on the last day, and the jury is still out on Way Back Then.
But events have shown that Poetic Rhythm had a formidable task trying to give weight at Cheltenham to On The Blind Side (since won the Ballymore trial at Sandown) and subsequent Cheltenham winner Momella. So much so that Poetic Rhythm went up 7lb in the ratings for being beaten!
3.15 Taunton A cracking hurdles contest of smart novice mares currently only a few pounds apart in the ratings.
Maria’s Benefit is on a four-timer, up 19lb, but trainer Stuart Edmunds is on record as saying that better ground helped her at Ludlow and she has yet to race over anything worse than good to soft.
That also applies to the royal runner, Sunshade, who is still only four, but there seemed plenty of confidence behind her this morning.
If You Say Run ran and won only four days ago at Wincanton but Paul Nicholls seems to be saying: Let’s dance!
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated)
BET 7pts win ROYAL RUBY (12.40 Newbury)
BET 7pts win SAINT CALVADOS (1.15 Newbury)
BET 6pts win BRAVE EAGLE (1.50 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50) 10pts win WEST OF THE EDGE and (win 20) 4pts win LESSONS IN MILAN (2.10 Haydock)
BET 4pts win DAKLONDIKE and 3pts win WUFF (2.25 Newbury)
BET 7pts win POETIC RHYTHM (3.00 Newbury)
SUPERNAP: 20pts win SUNSHADE (3.15 Taunton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pts win doubles and 1pt win treble NAYATI (12.05 Newbury), POETIC RHYTHM (3.00 Newbury) and SUNSHADE (3.15 Taunton)
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