COOL-HAND DAQMAN ON THE BIG-RACE TRAIL: Daqman landed Coolanly (WON 7-2) yesterday. Now for the first major-race Saturday of the Jumps season, which has the kind of big-field handicap he excels in, when he’s seldom content with the winner but likes to get the one-two. Today’s headlines:
VISION OF AN 18.5 BETDAQ HIT
I’D RATHER BE ON THE WINNER
WEEBILL TO THRILL ON H’CAP DEBUT
MULLINS AGAIN: IT’S NO ILLUSION
SUNDAY SPECIAL Don’t miss DAQMAN on Sunday as he looks at the big race Punchestown card where the feature is the Morgiana Hurdle and the final day of the Cheltenham November Meeting.
STEWARDS ENQUIRY – VIA VAR
Time moves on and so does technology. The Premier League have announced this week that the Video Assistant Referee (VAR) system is to be used from next season.
Technology has already been successfully applied to other sports including cricket, tennis and rugby for years. It’s got DAQMAN thinking. Is it time for racing to move towards a centralised panel of stewards?
The technology is there – a central panel can review pictures from all angles from miles aways and in theory it should lead to more consistent decisions and should also be a far cheaper solution, in time, given local panels of stewards will be redundant. If jockey evidence is required then surely it’s not that hard to set up a Skype based solution.
It might just take the VAR out of variable decisions.
VISION OF AN 18.5 BETDAQ HIT
1.50 Cheltenham Young marathon stars in the making won this 3m 3f chase (seven-year-olds five out of six) until Perfect Candidate lasted out gamely in a mud-splattered finish a year ago.
Fergal O’Brien brings him back as an 11-year-old, 2lb lower in the ratings but 4lb higher in the weights, suggesting that this is a weaker race on the better ground (‘slow side of good’ said jockeys yesterday).
Vicente finished strongly last year, failing to catch Perfect Candidate by a neck. He landed a novice chase here at Cheltenham at this meeting two years earlier; he’s won fresh, and he likes the better ground.
So, though I’d fancy him more if this were the Scottish National (he’s won it twice), he must be on the short list this afternoon at 9.4 on BETDAQ this morning.
Singlefarmpayment almost always puts in a good run at Cheltenham: 12202 still standing over fences, those seconds including the Ultima at the festival and when he split Cogry and Doing Fine (visored today) in October last year.
Singlefarmpayment is 6lb better for four lengths with Cogry, Doing Fine 9lb better for just less than six lengths. It brings them close together on that result, which also suggests that not very much has changed since the handicapper assessed the race.
And Cogry’s overall form at Cheltenham (4FB102) and his overall rating – exactly the same as a year ago – implies that there is very little margin for error.
Rock The Kasbah is in my horses to follow list, with his Spring second in the Sandown Gold Cup marking him down as a top stayer.
Today is very much a Cheltenham test, though he was placed, staying on, in a shorter top-novice chase at this meeting two years ago.
The seven-year-olds Sharp Response and Pure Vision have that ‘could be anything look’. Horses off the minimum won it three years out of five (2009-13).
Anthony Honeyball is in cracking form (3-6), and Pure Vision -an 18.5 offer – could be the one to split Vicente and Rock The Kasbah.
I’D RATHER BE ON THE WINNER
2.25 Cheltenham (Autumn Gold Cup) Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this three times in the decade – last year with Splash of Ginge – but a measure of his moderate chance of a repeat may be gauged by his being a stone worse off with the fifth horse that day, Romain De Senam, who is also back for more.
Romain’s Paul Nicholls stablemate, Frodon, landed the Old Roan Chase at Aintree three weeks ago for this column’s horses to follow. He is 5lb worse off with the runner-up Javert who stayed on right to the line.
But Javert failed to cope with these fences and gradients at the festival last year, whereas Frodon won the December Gold Cup and a January handicap at successive Cheltenham meetings.
I decided that day to follow him until he’s beaten, though I expected to see him head for Graded races to avoid the handicapper’s punishment. Today will be tough but the 5.3 BETDAQ place is tempting and he still could be up there with the best.
There’s a hotbed of novice-chasers. Kalondra is climbing the ranks well. He won at Cheltenham in December and followed up there with third in the big-field Silver Trophy in the Spring.
Mister Whitaker also graduated from novice company to win a Listed on the last day, his hat-trick starting with success on both the new and the old course at today’s venue.
But he’s 9lb worse off for just a head victory over with Rather Be when they were one-two at the festival.
Benatar had won three novice chases before his 12-lengths third to Shattered Love in the JLT, and Baron Alco has mixed it with the best, albeit looking a nearly horse with bridesmaid form of 21222.
For the second race running, it’s around 6-1 on the field on BETDAQ, making up a 109-10% orange. This is value you can’t ignore, whatever you fancy: 7.0 Rather Be and 21.0 Frodon are my pick.
WEEBILL TO THRILL ON H’CAP DEBUT
3.00 Cheltenham Thomas Campbell was a well backed 13/8 favourite for this last year but the race has thrown up more than it’s fair share of surprises with 20/1, 20/1 and 14/1 winners in the last five renewals.
First Assignment won here at the last meeting over a slightly shorter trip – the extra yardage should suit but he had a tough race and it would be a big effort for him to go back to back off a 5lb higher mark.
Preference is for the Olly Murphy trained Weebill who has an interesting profile and is making his handicap debut off what could be a lenient mark. He scored with plenty in hand when last seen out at Ayr and looks both progressive and versatile ground wise.
The Tom George trained Boyhood is another improver but looks more of a softer ground specialist.
MULLINS AGAIN: IT’S NO ILLUSION
4.00 Cheltenham Willie Mullins had three entered for this at the five-day stage and it might be even more ominous for her rivals that he relies solely on Royal Illusion. The mare has impressed in two wins from two in Ireland, scoring runaway successes at Punchestown and Cork and looks well above, an already high, average for the yard.
The ground should suit and she can see off the home challenge which is headed up by the Paul Nicholls trained Danse Idol. The trainer is 10 from 35 over the last fortnight and won this last year with Posh Trish so we have to take the claims of Danse Idol seriously. A point to point to winner, she has her first start for the yard since finishing second to Relegate in a bumper at Punchestown back in January on testing ground.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
1.50 Cheltenham (bull’s-eye bets to win 50)
BET 6pts win VICENTE
BET 5pts win ROCK THE KASBAH
BET 2.85pts win PURE VISION
2.25 Cheltenham (win 30 each of three bets)
BET 5pts win RATHER BE
BET 1.5pts win and 7pts place FRODON
3.00 Cheltenhm (win 20)
BET 3.4pts win WEEBILL
3.15 Lingfield (win 20)
BET 3.6pts win GIFTED MASTER
3.30 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 2.7pts win CHRISTMAS IN APRIL
4.00 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 12pts win (nap) ROYAL ILLUSION
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
