PREMIER LEAGUE SATURDAY: We preview Saturday’s Premier League matches with recommended BETDAQ bets and extended match stats. The action starts with leaders Liverpool v Watford at 12.30pm.
LIVERPOOL V WATFORD
12.30pm We kick off this weekend in the Premier League with the Champions-Elect taking on Watford who sit rock bottom. This is probably a case of ‘by how many’ rather than ‘will Liverpool win?’ Watford managed to pick up a point last weekend at home to Palace, but their situation gets more dire with every passing week. You can say the opposite about Liverpool though with Manchester City losing again last weekend!
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Liverpool 1.19, Watford 20.0 and the draw is 8.4. It’s not a surprise to see Liverpool so short, indeed they could easily be shorter. Perhaps it’s time to see prices on Liverpool turn into the prices we had on Manchester City last season; going off 1.13 etc. Liverpool impressed in the second half in the Champions League midweek and given how poor Watford have been, we can only see one way traffic here. Any Other Home Win (Liverpool to score four or more and win) is trading 3.15 in the Correct Score market and that looks cracking value to start the weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Any Other Home Win at 3.15.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQlivwat
MATCH STATS
- Liverpool have won six of their last seven Premier League games against Watford (D1), netting 25 goals and conceding just four in those matches.
- Since winning 1-0 in their first ever Premier League visit to Anfield in August 1999, Watford have lost their last five away against Liverpool by an aggregate score of 1-20.
- Liverpool’s last three home Premier League games against Watford have seen them win 6-1, 5-0 and 5-0. No side has ever won four consecutive home games by a margin of 5+ goals against an opponent in top-flight history.
- This is the 35th meeting between the top and bottom sides in Premier League history, with the side starting top winning 24, drawing six and losing just four. However, one of those defeats was for Liverpool in their only such match in the competition (1-2 vs Spurs in November 2008).
- Liverpool are guaranteed to be top of the Premier League table at Christmas – the last three occasions of a team failing to win the title having been top at Christmas have been Liverpool (2008-09, 2013-14 and 2018-19). The only side to be top of the league table at Christmas in consecutive years and fail to win the title both times was Everton in 1894-95 and 1895-96.
- Liverpool have won their last 15 home top-flight matches – they’ve only had one longer run at Anfield in their history, winning 21 in a row between January and December 1972.
- Watford have lost their last 12 top-flight matches against teams starting the day top of the league, a run stretching back to 1986. They’ve lost all 10 of these games in the Premier League.
- Watford have failed to score in a league-high nine different Premier League games this season, while Liverpool are the only side to have scored in all 16 of their games. It’s the Reds’ best scoring start to a top-flight campaign since 1933-34, when they netted in each of their first 21 matches.
- Liverpool have scored a league-high 10 headed goals in the Premier League this season, with no player in the division netting more headers so far this term than Virgil van Dijk (3). Indeed, the Reds have scored more headed goals (10) than Watford have scored in total in 2019-20 (9).
- Liverpool’s Mo Salah has been involved in seven goals in four Premier League appearances against Watford (6 goals, 1 assist). Teammate Sadio Mané has been involved in eight goals in five games against them for the Reds (5 goals, 3 assists), while fellow forward Roberto Firmino has been involved in eight in his last six against the Hornets (5 goals, 3 assists).
BURNLEY V NEWCASTLE
3pm Burnley have had a tough couple of weeks, but they’ve also had a tough run of fixtures. They’ve lost to Spurs and Manchester City, but they’ve conceded nine goals along the way. Before that too, they lost here against Crystal Palace. They look too short here at 2.08. Newcastle come into this fixture in great form after two straight wins against Southampton and away to Sheffield United. They drew 2-2 to Manchester City before those two wins too – and Sheffield United had been playing some excellent football before that Newcastle game. We can’t have Burnley as short at 2.08 – we fully expect a closer game than those odds suggest and from a value point of view, we have to lay Burnley. The 2.08 could be one of the best lays of the weekend.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Lay Burnley at 2.08.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQburnew
MATCH STATS
- Burnley have lost just one of their last six home league meetings with Newcastle (W4 D1), though it did come in this exact fixture last season.
- After drawing three and losing one of their first four Premier League meetings with Burnley, Newcastle won both fixtures against the Clarets last season.
- This is the seventh Premier League meeting between Burnley and Newcastle, but the first to take place on a weekend day, with the others coming on each day of the week between Monday and Thursday.
- Burnley haven’t won a Premier League game in which they’ve conceded a goal since April (3-1 vs Bournemouth), drawing four and losing 11 since then. The Clarets have lost their last three Premier League games by an aggregate score of 1-11.
- Newcastle are looking to win three consecutive Premier League games for the first time since November 2018 under Rafael Benítez. Meanwhile, manager Steve Bruce hasn’t won three straight games in the competition since January 2009 with Wigan (a run of four).
- Newcastle’s average possession figure this season is just 32.8%, the lowest in the Premier League. The Magpies are the only side yet to have more possession than their opponents in a single Premier League match this season.
- Burnley (326) and Newcastle (305) have played fewer passes per game than any other Premier League side this season. These two sides also play a higher proportion of long passes than any other side in the competition (Burnley 21.6%, Newcastle 19.7%).
- Newcastle have scored nine Premier League goals via defenders this season, accounting for 53% of their total – both figures are competition highs in 2019-20. A defender has scored for the Magpies in four of their last five meetings with Burnley.
- Between them, Ashley Barnes (15) and Chris Wood (14) have scored 62% of Burnley’s Premier League goals in 2019 (29/47) – no other player has scored more than four goals for the Clarets this year.
- Newcastle’s Jonjo Shelvey has scored in three consecutive league games for the first time in his career. Only in 2013-14 (6 goals in 32 games) has Shelvey scored more Premier League goals than the five he has this term (11 games).
CHELSEA V BOURNEMOUTH
3pm Bournemouth were put to the sword by Liverpool last weekend, but many teams have been already this season! They face a tough run now having to play Chelsea away from home, and they’ve recently lost away to Spurs too. Chelsea got the job done in the Champions League during the week here against Lille, but it’s a game that they should have won by more than one goal and their performances haven’t been impressive in recent weeks. We don’t believe this Bournemouth side are good enough to stop them winning, but they can keep the game very tight. Chelsea haven’t been banging in the goals and we like Bournemouth with the handicap. They’re currently trading 2.22 +1.5 goals and that looks very good value. A Chelsea lay at 1.29 in the match odds market could be a good trading option too.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Bournemouth +1.5 goals to beat Chelsea at 2.22.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQchebou
MATCH STATS
- Chelsea have alternated between defeat and victory in their four Premier League home games against Bournemouth, winning this exact fixture 2-0 last season.
- Since Bournemouth were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, only Liverpool (3) have beaten Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the competition more often than the Cherries (2).
- None of the 15 meetings between Chelsea and Bournemouth in all competitions have ended in a draw, with the Blues winning 11 of those.
- Chelsea have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1) – as many as they had in their previous 20 in the competition (W12 D5 L3).
- Bournemouth have lost their last five Premier League games – they last had a longer run of consecutive league defeats in September 1994 (a run of seven).
- Bournemouth have lost each of their last six Premier League games in London, conceding 20 goals in the process. In total they’ve won just six of their 24 top-flight games in the capital (D3 L15), with 33% of these victories coming at Chelsea.
- Chelsea have lost two of their eight Premier League home games this season (W4 D2), more than they did in the whole of 2018-19 under Maurizio Sarri (W12 D6 L1).
- Only Manchester City (337) have had more shots than Chelsea in the Premier League this season (274). The Blues’ average of 17.1 shots per game is their highest in a single campaign since 2013-14 (18.2).
- Tammy Abraham has scored in consecutive Premier League games at Stamford Bridge for Chelsea – the last Englishman to score in three home games in a row for the Blues was Frank Lampard in August 2010.
- Harry Wilson is Bournemouth’s top scorer in the Premier League this season with six goals. Five of those strikes have come away from home, accounting for 56% of the Cherries’ nine goals on the road this term.
LEICESTER V NORWICH
3pm Leicester just keep on winning, and now they are the only team who can stop Liverpool from winning the title. They are still eight points behind though, and surely that is keeping the pressure off the squad. A top four spot already looks to be in the bag, and who knows – maybe they can catch Liverpool? It’s hard to see it though the way Liverpool have been playing! Not only have Leicester been winning games, but they’ve also been scoring goals for fun. Their goal scoring stats are incredible this season – they’ve scored two or more in each of their last eight games. With Norwich sitting down in 19th they might be further away from safety by the end of today. We like Leicester to keep scoring and cover the handicap – they’re trading 1.7 -1.5 goals and that looks one of the best bets of the day.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Leicester -1.5 goals to beat Norwich at 1.7.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQleinor
MATCH STATS
- Leicester have won their last three Premier League meetings with Norwich, with those matches coming in April 1995 and the 2015-16 campaign.
- Norwich have won three of their last five away league games against Leicester (L2), with all those victories coming in the Championship between 2005 and 2011.
- Leicester have won their last eight Premier League games by an aggregate score of 25-3. Victory for the Foxes here would be the 22nd winning run of 9+ games in Premier League history, with Leicester being the seventh different club to achieve it (Arsenal x3, Chelsea x5, Liverpool x5, Man City x3, Man Utd x4, Tottenham x1).
- Leicester have scored at least twice in each of their last eight Premier League games. Meanwhile, Norwich have conceded at least twice in 13 of their 16 league games this term; more than any other side.
- No side has conceded the first goal in more Premier League games this season than Norwich (10), with the Canaries going on to lose every single one of those. Meanwhile, Leicester have won their last 19 Premier League games when scoring first.
- Leicester have scored 39 Premier League goals this season, but have an xG figure of 29.05 – this is the biggest difference between actual goals and expected goals in the competition this season (9.95).
- Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has scored in each of his last eight Premier League games, just three short of his own competition record set in November 2015. The only other occasion of a player scoring in nine consecutive games in the competition was by Ruud van Nistelrooy (10 in a row in August 2003).
- As well as being the Premier League’s highest scorer this season (16), Leicester’s Jamie Vardy has an impressive shot conversion rate of 39%, netting from 16 of his 41 shots. In a completed Premier League season since 2003-04, the highest conversion rate from a player with at least 10 goals is 33% (Papiss Cisse in 2011-12).
- Kelechi Iheanacho has scored in all four of his appearances for Leicester in all competitions this season (4 goals), having scored just twice in 35 matches last season. The Nigerian is looking to score in three consecutive Premier League games for the first time.
- Norwich duo Todd Cantwell and Teemu Pukki have combined for more Premier League goals than any other pairing in the competition this season (5).
SHEFFIELD UNITED V ASTON VILLA
3pm This is an interesting fixture, it wasn’t too long ago it was happening in the Championship! It’s fair to say that most people expect Sheffield United to struggle in the Premier League more than Aston Villa have, but here we are nearly at Christmas with Sheffield United in the top ten and Aston Villa fighting to stay out of the bottom three. Villa have been a lot better in front of their own fans compared to away from home although they did pick up a point at Old Trafford recently. They have had some nice performances but keep on conceding goals. Against a side full of confidence and playing attacking football like Sheffield United, we can only see a home win here and the 1.95 looks worth backing.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Sheffield United to beat Aston Villa at 1.95.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsheast
MATCH STATS
- Sheffield United have won just one of their last five home league games against Aston Villa (D1 L3), though it was a 4-1 victory in the Championship last season.
- Aston Villa have won five of their six Premier League meetings with Sheffield United (D1), with this their first such meeting since the 2006-07 campaign.
- Aston Villa have faced Sheffield United without defeat in the Premier League more than they’ve faced any other side in the competition (6 – W5 D1).
- Aston Villa have only lost one of their last 10 league games in Yorkshire (W6 D3), though it was a 1-4 loss at Sheffield United in September 2018.
- Only Norwich, Southampton and West Ham (5 each) have lost more Premier League home games than Sheffield United this season (4). Indeed, only Watford (44.4%) and West Ham (43.8%) have won a lower share of their Premier League points at home than the Blades this season (45.5%).
- Following victory at Norwich last time out, Sheffield United are looking to pick up back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since December 2006.
- Aston Villa have won only one of their last 26 Premier League away games (D4 L21). Their last two victories on the road in the competition have been against promoted sides (1-0 vs Bournemouth in August 2015, 5-1 vs Norwich this season).
- Aston Villa have conceded more headed goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (8) – at the other end, the Villans have yet to score a single goal via a header this term.
- Sheffield United’s David McGoldrick has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (28). Based on the quality of chances, his xG value is 4.31 – also the highest of any player yet to score in the competition this season.
- Sheffield United forward Lys Mousset has scored with all five of his shots on target in the Premier League this season – the highest such 100% record in the competition this term.
SOUTHAMPTON V WEST HAM
5.30pm We end the day with a massive game towards the bottom of the Premier League table. The hosts start the weekend in the bottom three but West Ham are only one point ahead of them. Watford and Norwich are slightly adrift but there’s a huge battle to stay away from that 18th position and a win for either side would be huge. West Ham picked up a shock win away to Chelsea recently, but they have lost two since and while Southampton lost at Newcastle last weekend, they had been picking up points with two wins and a draw in the three games prior to that.
The match odds at the time of writing currently trade; Southampton 1.97, West Ham 4.0 and the draw is 4.0. West Ham have lost three of their last four away games, and losing from a 1-0 lead at half-time at home to Arsenal on Monday night has to be a big worry too. Apart from their shock Chelsea win, they just haven’t been good enough and with Southampton having home advantage here we feel they can grind out a win. They have been a lot more solid than the Hammers this season despite being one point behind them.
BETDAQ BEST BET:
Southampton to beat West Ham at 1.97.
You can view all markets here -> http://bit.ly/BDQsouwes
MATCH STATS
- Southampton have lost four of their last five Premier League meetings with West Ham (W1), conceding at least twice in each match. Saints had only lost three of their previous 12 against the Hammers in the competition (W5 D4).
- West Ham have won more Premier League games against Southampton than they have versus any other side (16).
- West Ham haven’t opened the scoring in any of their last 15 Premier League visits to Southampton, since a 1-1 draw in March 1995. Despite that, they’ve ended on the losing side in under half of those games (W3 D5 L7).
- After a run of eight successive home games without a win (D3 L5), Southampton have won their last two at home in the Premier League. They last won three consecutively at St Mary’s in the competition in May 2016 (a run of four).
- After an unbeaten run of six Premier League away games (W3 D3), West Ham have lost three of their last four on the road (W1). However, the Hammers have won a higher proportion of their Premier League points in away games this season than any other side 56.3%).
- Only Aston Villa (13) have dropped more points from winning positions than West Ham (12) in the Premier League this season. Indeed, the 12 points West Ham have dropped is as many as they lost from ahead in the whole of 2018-19.
- Southampton’s last 13 Premier League goals have been scored by English players – excluding own goals, the last team to have a longer run of English goalscorers in the competition was Swansea City between October 2011-January 2012 (14).
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has already scored in five Premier League defeats this season – the only Saint to score in more defeats in a single campaign in the competition was Matt Le Tissier in 1992-93 (7).
- Southampton’s Danny Ings has ended on the winning side in just nine of the 28 Premier League games he’s scored in (32%), the lowest win ratio of any player to have scored in at least 20 matches in the competition.
- West Ham have lost just one of their seven Premier League games with Lukasz Fabianski starting in goal this season (W3 D3), and have lost seven of nine when the Polish stopper hasn’t started (W1 D1).
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