NFL WEEK 16: This Week 16 began in style if you’re a Saints fan or have Alvin Kamara rostered on one of your fantasy teams, as the do-it-all tailback rushed for an NFL record 6 touchdowns in New Orleans’ 52-33 Christmas night win over the Vikings. The victory clinched the NFC South title for the Saints, but they remain a game back of Green Bay in the race for the NFC’s 1-seed and a first-round postseason bye.
The action is spread out nicely this holiday weekend, with three games set for today (Sat.), 11 more on Sunday, and the Monday nighter, an AFC East grudge match between bitter rivals Buffalo and New England. There are several games with significant playoff implications, of course, and then there’s the ever-compelling race to the bottom, which is essentially a race to the top of the draft and the opportunity to select Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, the best quarterback prospect the league has seen since Andrew Luck. The Jets won their first game of the season last week to put Jacksonville in the driver’s seat for Lawrence, so despite the Jags getting hammered by Baltimore, I contend that last Sunday was a top-5 day in the history of the franchise, just as long as they don’t screw it up by winning one of their last two games.
Here are a few suggestions for the regular season’s penultimate weekend:
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (SEA -1.5, 47.5)
Recommendation: Los Angeles +1.5 at 1.91
The Rams laid an egg of historic proportions last week, losing to the previously winless Jets as a 17-point favorite. But the NFL is strange– each game is its own universe, as they say– and I expect a strong bounce-back performance from an L.A. team that’s been playing some good football over the past couple of months, winning 4 of 5 prior to last week’s disaster. Both of these teams have plenty to play for– the Seahawks can clinch the NFC West with a victory, while the Rams can lock up a playoff berth with a win and a loss by either the Bears or Cardinals– and they met earlier this season, of course, with L.A. cruising to a 23-16 win behind a strong performance from their defense. It was the continuation of a pattern that has held since Sean McVay has been in Los Angeles: the Rams defense has a unique ability to pressure Wilson and make him uncomfortable, and it has resulted in some ugly games from the typically unflappable Seahawks QB. Seattle is just 2-5 against the Rams in the McVay era, and the five losses have come by an average of 16.25 points per game. Given the generous nature of this Seahawks defense, which ranks 13th out of 16 NFC teams in yards allowed despite their past four games coming against four of the NFL’s worst offenses (WAS, NYJ, NYG, PHI), we can expect Wilson to have the world on his shoulders once again, and I feel like we’ve already seen how this movie ends. Gimme the Rams.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys (PHI -2.5, 49.5)
Recommendation: Dallas +2.5 at 1.97
Neither of these teams deserve to be in the playoff hunt, but deserve’s got nothing to do with it, as they say, and with Washington’s Week 14 loss leaving both of these teams just a game back of the division lead, this one should have a playoff-like atmosphere (um… minus the fans, that is). The Eagles have found some hope behind Jalen Hurts, the rookie QB who took over for the flailing Carson Wentz three weeks ago and has added something extra to the offense with his mobility. Hurts has struggled as a passer, however, completing 54%, 56%, and 41% of his attempts in the last three games, and though he’s a capable runner, he’s not in the same class athletically as a Deshaun Watson or even a Josh Allen. Hurts will be facing a Dallas defense that has gradually improved over the course of the season and will be healthier than it was when these teams met back in Week 8, a Wentz-led 23-9 Philadelphia victory. But the real edge I see for Dallas here is on the other side of the ball: the Cowboys offense seems to have found a formula for success with Andy Dalton playing efficient, mistake-free football and Tony Pollard running like he’s the one who should be making the big bucks, rather than the banged-up Zeke Elliott. They put up 41 points on a solid San Francisco defense last week, and I like their chances against a Philly D that was just roasted for 526 yards by Arizona and will be down at least two starters in the secondary. I believe the wrong team is favored here– Dallas is a tasty home ‘dog.
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers (GB -3, 55.5)
Recommendation: Tennessee +3 at 1.91
Pittsburgh has been exposed as the AFC’s paper tiger over the past couple of weeks, and while I certainly wouldn’t put Green Bay in that class, I do think the Packers look more like a team headed for a surprise early-round playoff exit than one headed for the Lombardi Trophy. My primary reason for this diagnosis will be on full display in this game against Tennessee: the Green Bay defense simply cannot stop a competent opposing offense from imposing its will via running the ball right down the Packers’ collective throats. The fact that the Pack have allowed fewer rushing yards this season than last year can mostly be attributed to scheduling variance and their offense building large leads in several games, forcing opposing teams to air it out. Dig a little deeper, and the numbers are still ugly, as this Packers defense is surrendering 4.6 yards per carry and is still hovering near the bottom of the league in run stop win rate. Basically, when a team is committed to running the ball against Green Bay, they have no trouble doing so, and very few teams show as much commitment in this regard as do the Titans, who boast the NFL’s leading rusher, Derrick Henry. This is a dream matchup for the Tennessee offense: Henry will soften them up, Tannehill will pick them apart, and then Henry will finish them off. Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous player and we can expect the Packers to have success against a beatable Titans defense, but I have a feeling that Rodgers will be fighting an uphill battle here, and I don’t much like his chances. I’ll gladly take Tennessee and a field goal.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots (BUF -7, 45.5)
Recommendation: Buffalo -7 at 1.91
All those years of frustration… those years of watching Belichick on the other sideline, all smug in his hoodie, guiding the Pats to another soul-crushing victory. The pretty boy quarterback, the insufferable “Patriot Way” talk, the poaching of other teams’ talented-yet-disgruntled-players, the way it always seemed to work out in the end… this is how the Buffalo Bills, from the players, to the fans, to ownership, to the guy who sells peanuts, have experienced their rivalry with New England over the past 20 years. And now, finally, the worm has turned. Gone is the pretty-boy QB, replaced by a fading veteran who is a shell of his former self and was never Brady-caliber to begin with. The defense is aging, as is Belichick, and the Pats are going to miss the playoffs for only the second time this century. The Bills, meanwhile, are a genuine Super Bowl contender for the first time since the Jim Kelly era, and they’re on a roll right now, winning four straight games and 7 of their last 8. The Josh Allen-led offense has been tremendous, ranking 5th in the NFL in yards per game while putting up 29.1 ppg, and the defense appears to have ironed out some early-season issues. Given the incompetence of the New England offense, a unit that has produced just 15 combined points in the team’s past two games and ranks 30th in pass yards, this is perfectly set up to be an exorcism of sorts for the Bills and their long-suffering fan base. These teams met back in Week 8 and Buffalo pulled out a 3-point victory, but I’ll be very surprised if it’s that close this time around. This one has all the makings of a one-sided beatdown.
