CHANCE OF BIG-RACE FAVOURITE WAS SERIOUSLY AFFECTED: Now and then Daqman has a rant. Today he objects to betting blind when simple information could – and should – be made known to the betting public and the genuine turf tipster who is trying to provide a service. He finds that two of the big-name horses in a race at the weekend were at a disadvantage, their chance of winning seriously affected, notably the favourite!
TODAY: Daqman keeps the stakes low with three evening bets from Lingfield and Chelmsford.
DON’T TREAT THE PUNTERS LIKE MUGS
Punters are the last to know. It was always hard to glean enough information to have a decent bet but today you are restricted to a sporting-Press monopoly in England, and a single terrestrial TV channel, in which most of what is written or said is divided into two equally worthless caches:
1: The rave-notice mentality (example: Starman Will Win It For England).
2: Ego billing and banter of the so-called experts in print or on air.
Those of us lucky enough to be paid for winkling out winners work hard sifting the form and trying to relate it to value odds, at the same time conscious of giving some kind of service to readers and listeners.
And it is lazy and really quite pathetic to put up copy and a headline which is casual or ill-thought-out opinion. You often get a gormless patriotism, as if it has something to do with the result of a horse race.
I chose the Starman headline deliberately. It’s actual and it concerned Sunday’s big sprint, Prix Maurice de Gheest, in France where ‘going good to soft’ can be a euphemism for knee-deep trench warfare.
But there I go exercising the language like a tabloid queen myself when what I really mean is: ‘as a general rule, you can expect it to be softer than that.’
At least I had the due diligence to warn Sunday punters in Daqman: ‘Starman is seemingly best on a sound surface.’
That does not mean connections can’t try the surface but we would like to know something through the indolent Press instead of being advised in an offhand way that Starman Can Win For England.
Worse – yes, worse – in the same race. Nowhere were we told about the risk of backing the 9-5 joint-favourite Campanelle.
I, myself, confess that I assumed everything was straightforward; since she had won before at Deauville (the 2020 Morny), there would be no problem. But she finished stone last.
‘Reluctant to post, Campanelle lost the race at the start, leaping up in the stalls and banging her head, whacking Frankie Dettori in the face, and almost knocking him out of the saddle.
‘In the race she swerved and was clearly sulking. A line can be drawn through this.’ That’s a mix of Raceform and a newspaper report.
Dettori told the Racing Post: ‘She usually has a pony and a guy helping in the gate, but there was none of that, so she was very upset.. it’s just one of those things.’
Just two of those things, actually: punters backing Starman on some so-called expert’s whim when the ground was against him plus punters backing Campanelle when she was not readied to perform in her usual way. And we still don’t know why.
Punters don’t expect to get inside information about a planned coup (they have to work that out for themselves) but surely simple facts about a horse’s situation made available to an intelligent Press would be a much needed blessing at this time.
BAY IS NO LAY
⭕ 7.35 Lingfield Looks a day to keep stakes low with three all-weather meetings and a tricky Nottingham card on the menu.
This class 4 novice event is as good as it gets at Lingfield tonight but there is a bet on the Charles Hill trained Willougby Bay who looks the nap of the day on the BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE .
The filly takes a big drop in class having contested a class 2 at Goodwood on debut and despite running green did well to finish fourth to Illustrating.
She should know plenty more about the game and it’s also interesting to note that she holds an entry for a Listed race at Newbury on Friday this week so is clearly held in some regard.
Corazon should also improve for her debut fourth in a more modest Wolverhampton maiden but she ran green and the penny only dropped late on. She looks a bigger threat than the more exposed Gift Horse who may again make the running.
⭕ 8.05 Lingfield It’s with trepidation I oppose Hollie Doyle onboard Thegreatestshowman but Saturday’s Shergar Cup star Nicola Currie might have her measure here on Vandad who bounced back to form with an eased down six length win at Brighton last time out!
NECTAR POINTS WITH HONEY
⭕ 8.50 Chelmsford A competitive closing six furlong event in Essex despite there being four non runners including the well fancied Willingly.
Hughie Morrison has his string in good form (three winners from last nine runners) and his Honey Pot looks interesting against a field of mainly exposed rivals.
Whilst her overall form is modest, the drop back in trip might be the key to unlocking a better effort.
She showed plenty of pace at Bath last time out but struggled to see out the mile and it was a similar story at Brighton in April when she ran one of her better races. Stefano Cherchi is an added bonus in the saddle.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 10 points including place bet)
BET 6.0pts win (nap) WILLOUGHBY BAY (7.35 Lingfield)
BET 3.8pts win VANDAD (8.05 Lingfield)
BET 1.0pts win and 4.6pts place HONEY POT (8.50 Chelmsford)
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
