CHELTENHAM CHALLENGE: 17.0 TO ROCK WITH IN THE CHAMPION HURDLE: Daqman is renowned for spotting big value on Betdaq, and he brings to Cheltenham a 17.0 giant 50-point jackpot bet on Rock On Ruby in the Champion Hurdle, placed in his column earlier in the year.
CHELTENHAM CHALLENGE: IT’S ‘CRAZY’ TO THINK THE PACKAGE IS VALUE: Daqman boasts 16 consecutive winning lays at the Cheltenham Festival so why isn’t he opposing Sprinter Sacre, Hurricane Fly or Quevega? Is he chicken? The answer: far from it. He’s taking on Pricewise-headlined The Package as a ‘crazy’ price.
1.30 Cheltenham (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle): Steps To Freedom is a rare Irish raider who likes the going on top; he’s a course winner (over Prospect Wells) and won the Aintree champion bumper last April from Montbazon (Allure Of Illusion and Cinders and Ashes behind).
Eight out of 10 winners of this started their careers in bumpers and the Irish have won this race 11 times in 21 years.
Another Irish horse, Midnight Game, was eased down to beat Dylan Ross and Distant Memories at Naas in January but was beaten by Group winner on the Flat, Galileo’s Choice (has won on good ground) at Fairyhouse, and has been below par at home recently.
Colour Squadron might have beaten Montbazon at Newbury but for a fall and he did beat him on the same course in December.
Darlan also fell at Newbury, got home only a nose over today’s CD in December and was a bridle winner of modest races at Kempton and Taunton.
Tetlami comes into it on a line through Vulcanite but the Irish have a very strong hand with Steps To Freedom and Galileo’s Choice, and I can dutch them at 8.6 and 9.0
2.05 Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase Sprinter Sacre was rated only 149 over hurdles against Menorah’s 162 and Al Ferof’s 154, having finished third to Al Ferof in last year’s Supreme Novices, with Cue Card fourth, while at the same meeting the 2010 Supreme Novices winner, Menorah (Blackstairmountain 10th), was fifth in the Champion Hurdle.
Those who saw Al Ferof win the opener last year will know that Sprinter Sacre was absolutely cruising in the straight but didn’t last home.
However, Tony McCoy, who rode him that day, says that Sprinter Sacre was ‘a big, weak horse’ then and has filled out to become ‘the business’ today.
Sprinter Sacre is unbeaten over fences but, as Raceform said after Somersby’s Victor Chandler last month, ‘a strong case’ could be made that, in finishing third that day, Al Ferof ‘put up the best performance by a 2m novice chaser this season’
That was after Sprinter Sacre had beaten Peddler’s Cross at Kempton but before Sprinter Sacre broke the course record at Newbury in February.
Menorah’s chase form doesn’t match theirs and it must be close now between Sprinter Sacre and Al Ferof yet the offers say not: 4.6 Al Ferof, with odds-on Sprinter Sacre is a massive invitation to take on the favourite.
I think we won’t know until the race is run, so Sprinter Sacre will be my saver to a bet on Al Ferof.
2.40 JLT Speciality Handicap Chase Since only one winner has carried more than 10st 12lb in the last decade, and the bottom five are out of the handicap, we would be left with five horses and, of those, only Albert Bartlett runner-up Mossley (19.0 on Betdaq this morning) fits the age range of past winners.
However, taking another stats pointer to horses rated 143 to 148, we are back at the top of the handicap, all those above Mossley, bar Quantitativeeasing.
This leads you to the conclusion that the small group between Mossley and Quantitativeeasing are the lucky ones: by remaining in the race, the top weight has literally given them ease in the weight, while forcing five others out of the handicap.
Of those who are meat in this sandwich, and of the right age, Magnanimity (16.0 this morning) was beaten little more than a length when fourth in the RSA last season, but Zarrafakt has been hiked 12lb for a return to form at Wincanton.
I couldn’t have the old boys Noland and Mon Mome who, like The Package down the handicap – placed in this race two years ago – are heading for the Grand National, along with Hold On Julio.
Win or lose, it’s crazy to suggest that The Package is value at 7-1 this morning, and he could be backed in to around 9-2 because of the Pricewise support.
The Package is massively short of match practice, with his trainer saying that they are only ‘hoping’ he has retained his ability.
His runs back after an absence are not what they’re claiming in the papers but are represented by form figures of 230220 and he’s won only once since November 2007, more than four years ago, in which time he’s mostly been nursing a tendon injury.
Hold On Julio has yet to encounter Cheltenham but he has twice surged up the Sandown hill and is unbeaten in three runs over fences since his novice-hurdle days.
The question-marks about him are inexperience over fences and the ground. The question over chasing experience also applies to Mossley, but the ground problem doesn’t arise; it’s definitely his terrain today.
The consistent Fruity O’Rooney is a danger to all and, if I leave Billie Magern out (I’ve backed him twice this season), he’s sure to win.
But, on last year’s form, when he was third in this race, and is now 12lb better for two lengths with the runner-up, Quantitiveeasing, Tullamlore Dew (15.0 this morning) is the pick of the weights.
3.20 Champion Hurdle This column took 17.0 last year’s Neptune runner-up Rock On Ruby, who is within the ratings band (163-167) of recent winners.
It’s 27-1 against success for a five-year-old, and Zarkandar is rated 8lb lower than the only winner of that age, Katchit. Seven out of 10 winners have already scored at Cheltenham, which is Oscars Well’s black mark.
Hurricane Fly last year was only the second favourite to win in the last decade and the Irish are going for win number nine since 1998.
Rock On Ruby still represents value against him at 12.0 this morning, as a staying type who would have overhauled Binocular in the Kempton Christmas Hurdle had the Cheltenham hill been in the way.
4.00 Cross-Country Emmet (with a valuable 3lb allowance) can get the better of Philip in a battle of the Mullins boys.
Both lost the plot on Scotsirish and Uncle Junior when taking the wrong course over CD in December, letting in the old champion Garde Champetre.
I thought then that Uncle Junior was going the better of Willie Mullins pair, even though Scotsirish was the shorter price and he’d already beaten Garde Champetre at levels in the November.
Snag is that five of the last six winners of this carried a maximum of 10st 13lb, and Balthazar King, who loves today’s surface, was also in with a chance in that mix-up in December.
4.40 Mares’ Hurdle Willie Mullins’ mare, Quevega has won the last three runnings of the race, inaugurated in 2008, ridden each time by Ruby Walsh.
5.15 Pulteney Novices’ Handicap Chase The stats say that you need a seven-year-old, within a tight ratings parameter of 132-135 (four out of five), which gives you Ackertac, Cucumber Run, Vino Griego, That’ll Do and Educated Evans.
That’s a double handful for Nigel Twiston-Davies, and the betting seems quite at odds (pun intended) with the reality of the form, which is that Ackertac (16.5 offers on Betdaq) is 7lb better for a couple of lengths with Triolo D’Alene (7.4 favourite).
DAQMAN’S BETS
WIN-30 JACKPOT: 4pts win STEPS TO FREEDOM and 4.2pts win GALILEO’S CHOICE (1.30 Cheltenham)
BET 5.5pts win AL FEROF and 6.0pts (stakes saver) SPRINTER SACRE (2.05 Cheltenham)
WIN-50 JACKPOT (already ante-post): 3.1pts win (nap) ROCK ON RUBY at 17.0, and BET 3.4pts win (stakes saver) HURRICANE FLY (3.20 Cheltenham)
WIN-30 JACKPOT: BET 4pts win HOLD ON JULIO, 2pts win MAGNANIMITY, 1.6pts win TULLAMORE DEW (2.40 Cheltenham) and LAY to win 10pts THE PACKAGE.
BET 3.8pts win UNCLE JUNIOR and 1.6pts win BALTHAZAR KING (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET 1.2pts win ACKERTAC (5.15 Cheltenham)
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