SUNDAY PREMIER LEAGUE: The Striker previews Sunday’s two Premier League games between SOUTHAMPTON v WOLVES and ARSENAL v SPURS both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
SOUTHAMPTON V WOLVES
2pm We might have more glamourous Super Sunday’s in the Premier League this season, but we have a fascinating day from a betting point of view. We have two very open markets on BETDAQ Betting Exchange and there’s going to be a lot of different opinions on the outcome! We start the day with Southampton hosting Wolves in what should be a very close game. You can’t blame the market for being so open here and all three outcomes aren’t so far away from the magical 3.0. Obviously the draw takes up the slack so the two teams trade under 3.0. Southampton are towards the bottom of the table, but they haven’t been playing too badly. Southampton have drawn four of their fives game plus they have had to play Manchester United and Manchester City, while Wolves have managed one win from their five games, but they deserved a lot more from their performances.
I have to say Wolves have been one of the most unlucky sides at the start of the Premier League season. They finished the game 1.66 to 0.55 on xG in their 1-0 loss to Leicester, again finished ahead on xG in their 1-0 loss to Spurs with an xG of 1.82, created an xg of 2.55 to 0.86 in a 1-0 loss to Manchester United, then hammered Watford 2-0 away from home and probably should have scored more – then they probably put in their worst performance last weekend when losing 2-0 to Brentford. Again they created a decent xG, but they conceded 2.11. Southampton have been trying to keep games tight and grind out results – what else can you do against the likes of United and City, and it’s hard to see anything other than a very close game here. Backing Wolves is tempting at the odds because they have been playing so well, but this game has unders written all over it and under 2.5 goals looks massive at 1.8. This will be a very cagey affair.
The Striker Says:
Three points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQSouwol
MATCH STATS
● Southampton have won just one of their last 10 league meetings with Wolves (D4 L5), a 3-1 home win in April 2019.
● Wolves have won their last two Premier League away games against Southampton, as many victories as they’d managed in their previous 14 league visits to St Mary’s/The Dell combined (D3 L9).
● Southampton have opened the scoring in each of their last five Premier League meetings with Wolves. They won first time around (3-1 in April 2019), but have failed to win any of the subsequent four (D2 L2).
● Each of Southampton’s last four Premier League games has ended level, with Saints last having a longer run of draws back in February 1995 and a joint Premier League record seven in a row.
● Despite being winless in seven Premier League games (D4 L3), Southampton have kept consecutive clean sheets in the competition, more than they’d managed in their previous 24 league games.
● Wolves have lost seven of their last eight Premier League games (W1), but are looking to secure back-to-back away wins in the competition for the first time since a run of three in June 2020.
● Wolves have the third highest xG total in the Premier League this season (9.2) but have scored just two goals, with their difference of -7.2 the biggest negative difference between actual goals and expected goals in the competition this season.
● Of sides to have played across both seasons, Southampton have the fewest points (21) and fewest wins (5) of any side in the Premier League in 2021. Meanwhile, Wolves have failed to scored in more different league games this calendar year than any other current Premier League side (12).
● Wolves’ Adama Traoré has had 49 successful take-ons in the Premier League this season, more than double that of any other player. Five of these have ended with a shot from the Spaniard, and six with him creating a chance, though he’s yet to score or assist in the Premier League this season.
● Wolves pair Adama Traoré and Raúl Jiménez have created more chances for each other than any other duo in the Premier League this season (10). They’re yet to combine for a goal this season however, with the two ranking joint-top for most shots without a goal this term (14 each).
ARSENAL V TOTENHAM
4.30pm This might not be the most important North London Derby in Premier League table terms, but what a massive game for both sides. There’s no getting away from the fact that both sides have been poor, borderline woeful, this season and they are in desperate need of a confidence boost. And in fairness, there’s no better confidence boost than the North London Derby bragging rights. This will no doubt be an important game for the fans, but the overall outlook for both clubs is very poor at the moment. They are playing bad football, losing the confidence of the fans behind them and seemingly going nowhere. Arsenal have put two wins together but they came against Norwich and Burnley, and the game against Burnley was very even. Perhaps grinding out a 1-0 win was a promising sign for Arsenal, but they have come up so short against Chelsea and Spurs recently.
If you take out the Europa Conference game, Spurs have lost two Premier League games 3-0 back-to-back coming into this fixture. The 3-0 loss to Crystal Palace came as a surprise to a few, including me, but you could see from their xG figures that a loss was coming. They were getting results, but their xG figures were very poor. They conceded an xG of 2.88 to Palace and only created 0.10 and then they conceded 2.49 against Chelsea and created 0.78. Arsenal’s figures were just as bad against the better sides too. This is definitely a game for small stakes – I couldn’t back Arsenal at 2.48 and I don’t have any faith in Spurs either. I can see both sides cancelling each other out here and the draw is worth a small bet at 3.35
The Striker Says:
One point win Draw at 3.35 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQArstot
MATCH STATS
● Arsenal beat Spurs 2-1 in this exact fixture in March – they’ve not won consecutive league games against Tottenham since doing the double over their rivals in the 2013-14 campaign.
● Tottenham have won just one of their last 28 away league games against Arsenal (D11 L16), coming from behind to win 3-2 in November 2010.
● Since consecutive 0-0 draws at Highbury in 1997-98 and 1998-99, Arsenal have scored at least once in each of their last 22 Premier League home games against Spurs.
● After losing their first three league games by an aggregate score of 9-0 this season, Arsenal have won both of their last two by a 1-0 scoreline. They last won three in a row without conceding in July 2020, while they last had three consecutive 1-0 victories in August 2008.
● After winning their first three league games all 1-0 this season, Tottenham have lost 3-0 in both of their last two, with both matches being London derbies. Spurs have never lost three consecutive league games by 3+ goals in their entire history.
● Coming into this weekend’s games, Arsenal have used the most different players (26) and had the most starting XI changes (16) in the Premier League this season. The Gunners also have the youngest average starting XI so far in the top-flight this term (24y 328d).
● Arsenal striker Alexandre Lacazette has been involved in six goals in his eight Premier League appearances against Tottenham. He’s scored in each of his last three against Spurs at the Emirates – no Arsenal player has ever scored in four consecutive home league games against Tottenham.
● Just one of the last 10 Tottenham managers (to take charge in a north London derby) has won their first top-flight meeting against Arsenal (D5 L4), though it was José Mourinho in July 2020. Nuno Espírito Santo will be the 10th different individual Spurs manager whose first north London derby came away from home, with just one of the previous nine emerging victorious (Peter Shreeve in January 1985, otherwise D5 L3).
● Both of Arsenal’s Premier League games with Aaron Ramsdale in goal this season have finished 1-0. The only keepers to record a clean sheet in each of their first three Premier League starts for the Gunners are Alex Manninger and David Ospina.
● Spurs’ Harry Kane is the all-time highest goalscorer in competitive meetings between Arsenal and Tottenham, with 11 goals. He failed to score against Arsenal in their last meeting in March, but has never gone without a goal against the Gunners in back-to-back games.
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