Well we started last week well with a win bet on Blackburn landed at odds of 3.4 (how could the layers get that one so badly wrong with Wolves in disarray) which gave me a little something extra in my BETDAQ stocking to go to war with at Cheltenham.
I do not know what it is that stirs the emotions about the festival but normally sane punters lose all sight of logic and bet in every race on the most difficult cards of the entire season, and so do I. Somehow, backing one winner on the day feels so good that the losses do not seem to matter but boy, was I inundated with “information”, with text messages e mails and what felt like the whole world offering to sell me all the winners (allegedly)! Luckily for me I have been in the game long enough to ignore the majority of con men (honesty is all I ask for), but I do read DAQMAN before making my own (often wrong) decisions. If we ignore all my silly bets (we would be here all day and you would get bored), I did have a big bet on Sprinter Sacre on Tuesday, which was duly landed, and in scintillating style. I managed to nab some 1.9 on BETDAQ which was a lot better than SP, so one up for me then, and my week was already looking as if it would get better day by day. Pride often comes before a fall, and thanks to Hurricane Fly who was a disappointing below par and annoying third in the Champion Hurdle, I didn’t have to wait long. Once again I felt pretty smug with the better BETDAQ price of 1.9 but when they lose it doesn’t really matter and the layers won that one, though to much smaller stakes thank goodness.
Odds on shots are not usually my way to play but Quevega seemed such a certainty that she looked like a pure and simple way for me to increase my betting pot. I admit I paid out more than I should (funny how you can keep topping the bet up sometimes), but I never had a moments worry as she landed BETDAQ odds of 1.65 with the minimum of fuss and I am willing to bet most punters just wished she raced more often.
Moving onwards, Wednesday was obviously going to be just as easy (?), but by now the creeping sickness better known as cockiness had invaded my mind and I decided Simonsig was way too short to win the Neptune, and at 3.25 on BETDAQ to lay, I was happy to play at being a layer for a change. Suffice it to say he strolled home in a canter and left me licking my wounds but it did snap me out of my slumber and reminded me that making money on the exchanges isn’t always so easy. Luckily for me I knew I had two certainties later in the day with Grands Crus (2.35 on BETDAQ) and Sizing Europe (2.0 on BETDAQ), and you guessed it, they both lost, though I did have an ante post on Finian’s Rainbow (14.5 with BETDAQ, thank you somebody), so all was not lost! Other bets I waved goodbye to included Vendor, the Alan King good thing (4.5 BETDAQ) and Peddlers Cross (3.8 with BETDAQ) who both ran below expectations but that’s racing I suppose? Big Bucks rode to my rescue (1.9 with BETDAQ was the price of the century), and Riverside Theatre (4.7 with BETDAQ), but overall I gave the layers back more than planned but still walked away ever so slightly up after the first three days.
Moving forward and we have the last day of Cheltenham today (Friday) and I have spotted a possible fly in the ointment that I missed last week. Philip Hobbs has been banging in plenty of winners of late and in Snap Tie he could have a very well handicapped hurdler indeed ahead of the 2.05 at Cheltenham this afternoon. He has not seen a racecourse since October 2009 when he won a novice chase here, but it is his hurdling form that interests me all be it a while ago. He was rated as highly as 160 and finished third in the 2008 Supreme Novices Hurdle and seventh in the 2009 Champion Hurdle. Somehow, the handicapper has kindly dropped his rating to 137 this afternoon, over a stone and a half less than at his best, and if he is anywhere near fit he could be thrown in here. A quick look at the BETDAQ odds let me nick a little 15.0 to win and 4.3 the place last night, though I may see if I can get some more on at a better price this afternoon.
Football has been more profitable for me of late so I can but hope that continues this weekend though the FA Cup gets in the way a bit. The Championship seems to throw up a couple of bets worthy of the name to me. Southampton are riding high and I will happily take some of the 2.11 that they will win at Barnsley, while Reading are also in line for automatic promotion, and should prove a lot too strong for Barnsley making the BETDAQ odds of 2.1 well worth a decent sized punt.
This week’s suggested bets (odds correct at the time of writing):
Football:
2pts Win SOUTHAMPTON to Win at Millwall at BETDAQ odds of 2.3
3pts Win READING to Win at Barnsley at BETDAQ odds of 2.1
Horse Racing:
1pt Win 1pt place SNAP TIE 2.05 Cheltenham Friday
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