TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: Our football tipster The Ultra previews Tuesday’s games between AJAX V BENFICA and MANCHESTER UNITED V ATLETICO MADRID both with a recommended BETDAQ bet and extended match stats.
AJAX V BENFICA
8pm It’s crunch time in the Last 16 of the Champions League this week and we have a cracking two nights ahead on BETDAQ Betting Exchange. It’s actually a very busy week as not only do we have huge fixtures in Europe, we also have the highlight of the horse racing season as the Cheltenham Festival goes on for four days this week too. We have the feast before the famine as it’s an International break after this weekend! All eyes will no doubt be on Manchester United v Atletico Madrid tonight, we but start with Ajax hosting Benfica in what should be an intriguing tie. The first leg of this tie was a cracker with a very end-to-end game finishing 2-2. Hopefully we have another open and enjoyable game here, however as I said most football fans will be glued to the United game! It was nice to land a lay on Ajax in the first leg, but really and truly they should get the job done here with home advantage. As I said in the first leg, Benfica are no mugs but they were always going to perform better with home advantage. Ajax feel the right price at 1.42 in my opinion, and I’m going to look to the side markets for some value here.
Benfica did pick up a 0-0 draw in the Group stage when they were away to Barcelona but that was in November and Barcelona were still in a very unsettled period – they weren’t playing as well as they are now. The market is expecting another very open game here with over 2.5 goals trading as short as 1.38 – that’s even shorter than the Ajax win! It makes a lot of sense to be honest, neither side will sit back and you’d imagine an early goal could see carnage here we could get five or more goals. Over 3.5 goals is trading 1.92 which does make appeal but I feel for that to win then both teams have to score, and Both Teams To Score is trading 1.57. I feel this bet stands out as the best value option here in what should be a high scoring game. Ajax play such an open game even in the Dutch league, and all of their recent games have been end-to-end – Benfica create enough to score here and BTTS is the value at 1.57.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.57 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQAjaBen
MATCH STATS
● Ajax lost their first ever home game against a Portuguese opponent in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League (1-3 in February 1969 vs Benfica) but have since gone unbeaten in the five such matches since (W4 D1). Ajax have won all three of these matches that have taken place in the UEFA Champions League, including one earlier this season (4-2 win v Sporting CP in the group stage).
● Including qualifiers, Benfica have only won one of their last 10 away games against Dutch sides in European competition – 1-0 v AZ in the UEFA Europa League in 2013-14. Six of the other nine games have ended in draws (L3), including one earlier this season against PSV in UEFA Champions League qualifying (0-0).
● Ajax have won all three of their home games in the UEFA Champions League this season. They will be looking to win four in a row on home soil in the competition for the first time since March 1996, when they won seven in succession under Louis van Gaal.
● Benfica are looking to progress beyond the Round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2015-16, when they eliminated Zenit Saint Petersburg over two legs (3-1 on aggregate). Indeed, it would be just the fourth time they have reached the quarter-finals of the competition in the 21st Century (2005-06, 2011-12 and 2015-16).
● Ajax have scored at least two goals in all seven of their UEFA Champions League games this season, netting 22 times in total. This is the most by team from outside of the big five European leagues through their first seven games of a UEFA Champions League campaign since Ajax themselves, who scored 30 in 1979-80.
● Benfica have only won one of their last 14 away games in the UEFA Champions League (D4 L9) – 3-2 v AEK Athens in October 2018. In the knockout stages of the competition, the Portuguese side have lost five of their last six away games (W1), including the last two without scoring (0-1 v Bayern Munich, 0-4 v Borussia Dortmund).
● Ajax have four different players in double figures for chances created from open play in the UEFA Champions League this season (Tadic 16, Haller 13, Berghuis 12, Antony 10). Coming into the Round of 16 second leg fixtures, only Manchester City have had as many different players do so (4).
● Ajax’s Sébastien Haller has been involved in 13 open play sequences that have ended in goals in the UEFA Champions League this season, which is already more than any player managed in the competition last term. The last striker with as many in a single campaign was Robert Lewandowski in 2019-20 (19), who went on to lift the trophy with Bayern Munich.
● Roman Yaremchuk has scored in his last two UEFA Champions League appearances for Benfica, including their equaliser against Ajax in the first leg. The last Ukrainian player to score in three consecutive appearances in the competition was Andriy Shevchenko for AC Milan in April 2005.
● Ajax striker Sébastien Haller has been directly involved in five goals in three home appearances in the UEFA Champions League this season (three goals, two assists), and could become just the fourth player in the competition’s history to score in each of his first four home appearances, after Oscar (2013), Frederic Kanoute (2008) and Alessandro Del Piero (1996).
MANCHESTER UNITED V ATLETICO MADRID
8pm Manchester United host Atletico Madrid next in what should be a cracker! There’s no doubt that this is the highlight fixture in the Champions League this week and we should have a fascinating tie ahead. Cristiano Ronaldo took all the headlines in the Premier League at the weekend with a match winning hat-trick against Spurs to keep United in the Top Four race for the time being. Ronaldo was left out or injured last week, but it looked like he was angry at that and really delivered. As Roy Keane said afterwards, he’s a match winner and you have to include him when he produces moments like that first goal on Saturday. Away from the Ronaldo magic, United were pretty average again at the weekend and they didn’t create too much – Ronaldo bailed them out almost. Spurs were average too, and you have to feel that if Atletico play to a certain level then they will win here. Basically, United are there for the taking but the big question is can Atletico deliver the type of performance they need?
Atletico haven’t been at their best this season, but they have put a few wins together and broke into the top four last weekend. That win over Real Betis was massive, and obviously their season depends on this tie along with keeping that position in La Liga. Missing Champions League football would be a huge blow. If you look at the xG table in La Liga, Atletico move up into second behind Real Madrid. They have performed well this season but their results just haven’t shown it – to be honest they have been sloppy at the back and they have given away far too many goals along with not fully taking their chances. Manchester United have been the opposite, despite being poor at the back this season, looking at their xG stats they should have actually conceded more goals than they already have. That’s a very damning stat when you consider their position is already poor in the Premier League. The first leg was a very close and cagey affair, and I can only see the same here. United look too short to me at 2.28 and I expect a much closer game than the odds suggest. The 2.28 really stands out as a value lay here and I wouldn’t even be surprised to see Atletico win. United need more Ronaldo magic, otherwise their season is over after this fixture – I feel the odds are so short on United it deserves a Max Bet.
The Ultra Says:
Five points lay (liability) Manchester United to beat Atletico Madrid at 2.28 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://bit.ly/BDQMunAtl
MATCH STATS
● Manchester United have been eliminated from their last three UEFA Champions League knockout stage games when drawing the first leg, doing so against Real Madrid (2012-13 last 16), Bayern Munich (2013-14 quarter-final) and Sevilla (2017-18 last 16).
● When failing to win the first leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout tie at home, Atlético Madrid have been eliminated three out of four times. The only exception was a 3-1 win at Chelsea in the 2013-14 semi- final, following a 0-0 draw in the home leg.
● Before this season, 69% of teams to draw the first leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie at home have been eliminated (59/85). However, six of the last 10 such teams to progress have done so against English sides.
● Atlético Madrid have lost their last two away trips to face English sides in the UEFA Champions League, losing at Chelsea in 2020-21 and Liverpool this season without scoring a goal in either. In addition, Atlético haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their eight total away games against English teams in the competition, conceding 14 goals overall.
● Manchester United have only won two of their last eight UEFA Champions League home games when hosting Spanish opposition (D3 L3), although the most recent of those did come earlier in the competition this season, beating Villarreal 2-1 with a stoppage time winner from Cristiano Ronaldo.
● Atlético Madrid haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last six UEFA Champions League matches – only between September 2009 and October 2013 (7 games) have they had a longer such run in the competition.
● There were just three shots on target between both sides in the first leg, with Atlético Madrid scoring from their only such effort in the 7th minute, and Manchester United scoring from their first such effort in the 80th.
● Cristiano Ronaldo has scored in both of his UEFA Champions League home games for Manchester United this season, and could do so in three in a row for only the second time for the club (previously between November 2007-March 2008). Ronaldo has netted 13 goals in his last 15 home games against Atlético Madrid across all competitions, including two hat-tricks in his most recent four (for Real Madrid in May 2017 and Juventus in March 2019, both in this competition).
● 19-year-old Anthony Elanga scored Manchester United’s equaliser in Madrid in the first leg. The only teenager to score in both legs of a Champions League knockout tie is Kylian Mbappé, who did so in the 2016-17 campaign against both Manchester City (round of 16) and Borussia Dortmund (quarter-final).
● Bruno Fernandes has provided six assists in the Champions League this season; only three Manchester United players have ever provided more in a single campaign in the competition – David Beckham in 1998- 99 (8), Dwight Yorke in 1998-99 (7) and Ryan Giggs in 2006-07 (7).
