ANTE-POST PUNTERS STINGING IN THE RAIN: Punters lost two hot favourites going into the second day of Cheltenham when the fast ground of the first day turned to ‘attritional conditions’. Bravemansgame was withdrawn and Shishkin (5-6 for the Champion Chase) struggled for a few fences and was pulled up; ‘purely ground related,’ said trainer Nicky Henderson. On-the-day punters found new favourites, four of them winners!
Daqman: five winning bets so far
WON 5-2 EDWARDSTONE (Fortune Cookie, nap, win 50 @ BETDAQ 13.0)
WON 10-1 BRAZIL
WON (2nd 13-8) GAELIC WARRIOR lay same race
WON 9-4 L’HOMME PRESSE (Fortune Cookie)
WON 2-1 STATTLER (Fortune Cookie from 3.75 on BETDAQ)
Updates (current season)
Daqman 38, Pricewise 23
Lays Logic: 8-13
Fortune Cookies: 18-29 Profit 115.24
Today’s headlines
MULLINS’ HALFWAY LEAD
BOB HAS BETTER FORM
BORN FOR CHELTENHAM!
ALLAHO FESTIVAL DOUBLE
RED CARPET FOR FLOORING
QUEEN HAS IT ON A PLATE
HEIA RACHEL! BETDAQ 35.0
TIGER JUMPS LIKE A CAT
MULLINS’ HALFWAY LEAD
TRAINERS SO FAR: (Ireland 8, Great Britain 6); Willie Mullins 4; Gordon Elliott 2, Nicky Henderson 2; one each Henry De Bromhead, Alan King, Ben Pauling, Padraig Roche, Lucinda Russell and Venetia Williams.
JOCKEYS: Nico De Boinville, Patrick Mullins and Paul Townend 2; one each Rachael Blackmore, Tom Cannon, Charlie Deutsch, Shane Fitzgerald, Derek Fox, Jack Kennedy, Mark Walsh, Kielan Woods.
FAVOURITES: Wjt; W; 0; W; 0; 2; 2; W; W; 0; 0; W; 2; W
BOB HAS BETTER FORM
⭕ 1.30 Cheltenham (Marsh Novices’ Chase)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
RATINGS: Galopin Des Champs 164, Bob Olinger 161.
FORTUNE COOKIE: Bob Olinger
FORM: Bob Olinger has taken well to fences, though unspectacular with back-to-back wins over the trip. Galopin Des Champs has also won two, impressively, and had a similarly strong hurdles career.
But, when Galopin won easily at the Dublin Festival, he had Master McShee and Gaillard Du Mesnil nine lengths and more than 14 lengths behind.
Bob Olinger beat Gaillard Du Mesnil nearly 32 lengths at Punchestown in January, having disposed of Master McShee more than 16 lengths at Gowran Park in November.
Bob Olinger has put up faster chase wins than Galopin Des Champs and beat Gaillard Du Mesnil in the Ballymore over hurdles at Cheltenham last year, going clear, also in a good time.
BETDAQ VALUE: 2.21 Bob Olinger this morning.
LAYS LOGIC: Rare chance of a double whammy, which could go spectacularly wrong! Galopin Des Champs (1.97 the lay in the BETDAQ green) and Bob Olinger will surely be one-two, barring accidents. I’ll bet Bob’s galloping home but it could be the other way round. Small stakes; give yourself the thrill of BETDAQ betting.
BORN FOR CHELTENHAM!
⭕ 2.10 Cheltenham (Pertemps Hurdle Final)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
FORM: Sire Du Berlais won this in 2019 and 2020 off 145 and 160, but went for the Stayers Hurdle last season and finished second.
Dropped to 156 and claimed off, he cannot be ignored but would be only the second winner of a double-figure age since 1982.
Limerick-born Fergal O’Brien, who saddles Albert Bartlett fifth, Alaphilippe, and Nigel Twiston-Davies (Ballyandy) are the only English-based stables surrounded by eight Irish-based at the front of the market.
With only one exception, that’s where the winner has come from in the decade (4-1 to 14-1), and the last six have been for Ireland: 10/12 were rated 138 or higher.
Six in the race today are trained Gordon Elliott. If he can’t settle on one or two, what chance have we got! Previous Cheltenham experience is significant:
That applies to Alaphilippe, Born Patriot, Dallas Des Pictons, Pileon, The Jam Man, Tullybeg, Whatsnottoknow and the 2020 Coral Cup winner, Dame De Compagnie.
BETDAQ VALUE: Peter Fahey who won Saturday’s Imperial Cup with Suprise Package, saddles Born Patriot, runner-up in the Cheltenham qualifier for this race: 22.0. I also like Alaphilippe 7.6
ALLAHO FESTIVAL DOUBLE
⭕ 2.50 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
RATINGS: Allaho 174, Conflated 168, Eldorado Allen 166
FORTUNE COOKIE: Allaho
FORM: Last year’s impressive Ryanair winner, Allaho, has been quiet since then but won the John Durkan and, beat the Ryanair runner-up, Fakir d’Oudairies by the same 12 lengths when they met again at Thurles in January.
Conflated had iordon Elliottt thinking of Friday’s Gold Cup after he beat last year’s Cheltenham star, Minella Indo, with Janidil third, and the holder Kemboy fifth, in February’s renewal of the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Festival.
But Conflated has dropped back half a mile today, not taking the rematch over the longer trip against Minella Indo on Friday, but reverting to the distance Janidil beat him in the Novices’ Gold Cup at the Fairyhouse festival last Spring. Intriguing stuff but it leaves me with more confidence about Allaho (pictured below).
RED CARPET FOR FLOORING
⭕ 3.30 Cheltenham (Stayers Hurdle)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
RATINGS: Klassical Dream 166, Flooring Porter 164, Champ 163, Paisley Park and Thyme Hill 161.
FORM: We all thought that Paisley Park was a dream of yesterday until the 2019 winner came back to his old flying finish to catch Champ, with Lisnagar Oscar third on good ground here at Cheltenham for the Cleeve.
This after Champ had beaten Thyme Hill in the Long Walk at Ascot, with Paisley Park only third. Which Paisley Park will we see today?
I’m guessing that, at his age of nine, he will no longer be capable of putting two big races together or of turning over the five lengths Flooring Porter beat him in this last year.
Like he did with Gabynako on Tuesday, Gavin Cromwell brings them back for the big time and, on today’s ground, Flooring Porter can turn around his defeat by Klassical Dream in the Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown when he had to play catch-up.
LAYS LOGIC: Usually a hot favourite here but a wide-open market of 100% this morning. Yes, 100%. Huge value.
BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE VALUE: 5.1 Klassical Dream is easy to back so 5.5 Flooring Porter appeals more. Royal Kahala (7.3) is the improver but I was hoping for 10.0.
QUEEN HAS IT ON A PLATE
⭕ 4.10 Cheltenham (Plate Handicap Chase)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
FORM: The Glancing Queen has run in the champion bumper (twice) and in the Mares Novices’ but has her best Festival chance is dropping down a level in this chase after running up to L’Homme Presse here in a Grade 2.
She swerved the mares events here to go handicapping, and the Alan King stable already has a champion this week in Edwardstone.
Celebre d’Allen is 3-3 for Philip Hobbs and his owner won this race in 2012 and 2014 but they were two and three years younger.
Simply The Betts, winner of this two years ago, is also showing his age and they’re hoping cheekpieces will wake him up.
Imperial Alcazar won well in a novice chase on this New course here in January but the placed horses have suggested since that the race wasn’t high class.
BETDAQ VALUE: 5.4 The Glancing Queen
HEIA RACHEL! BETDAQ 35.0
⭕ 4.50 Cheltenham (Mares’ Novices Hurdle)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
RATINGS: 141 Party Central, 139 Impervious and Statuaire, 135 Love Envoi.
FORM: Only Statuaire of seven Willie Mullins runners has an official rating, after winning the Royal Bond (Impervious fifth).
Mullins won this five years running (2016-2020) – four aged five and using four different jockeys – but with SP ranging from 4-7 to 50-1 in the before Henry De Bromhead butted in last season.
Dinoblue’s Clonmel stroll and Brandy Love’s at Naas have both been boosted by mares placed behind them.
Love Envoi is unbeaten in four hurdles from 2m to 2m 5f, from good to soft to heavy (including turning over the favourite, Nurse Susan, at Lingfield).
Kenny Alexander, owner of Honeysuckle, has a gorgeous half-sister to Fearless Lady called Heia, with bags of stamina on the dam’s side.
The name is a shout of encouragement for athletes, says Google. Not in my world and rider Rachael Blackmore needs none, but ‘heia’ all the same. Fun bet.
LAYS LOGIC: I laid Dinoblue on BETDAQ this morning at 3.35. It’s a big field of unexposed animals and the last three favourites (including Epatante and Royal Kahala) have been beaten.
BETDAQ VALUE: Love Envoi 11.5, Heia 35.0
TIGER JUMPS LIKE A CAT
⭕ 5.30 Cheltenham (Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
REPRISE: See Festival stats (Daqman Archive: Thursday, March 10)
ANTE-POST: Cat Tiger 17.0
FORM: Mount Ida last year broke the duck for mares in this race and was the first favourite to score since 2012. Her trainer, Gordon Elliottt, now bids for a hat-trick, with two at the front of another open BETDAQ market.
If he was hoping to go well in the Ultima yesterday, and boost the chances of Frontal Assault, it didn’t happen: stablemate Floueur, runner-up to Frontal Assault at Fairyhouse, was well back, 10th.
Smoking Gun won the Porterstown (3m 5f) at Fairyhouse in November but is 10lb higher here.
Henry De Bromhead’s Ain’t That A Shame has taken on top-class winners at this trip: second to both Stattler at Fairyhouse and Galopin des Champs at Leopardstown.
School Boy Hours was 0-9 over fences until scoring at Leopardstown (3m) at the Christmas meeting.
Third in Scottish Grand National, Troytown and Thyestes, Mister Fogpatches hasn’t been out of the ‘four’ for eight starts but won just the once.
Mister Coffey was runner–up to L’Homme Presse at Sandown (2m 4f) but there’s nothing in his form or pedigree to suggest he’ll take to this 3m 2f.
Cat Tiger is a superb jumper, with L’Homme Presse on one side of the pedigree, Long Run and Big Buck’s on the other. With Paul Nicholls doing badly, he is out to 32.0 this morning. Fun bet.
BETDAQ VALUE: 11.0 Ain’t That A Shame, 32.0 Cat Tiger
DAQMAN’S BETS
1.30 Cheltenham (double whammy)
BET 10pts win BOB OLINGER
LAY to lose GALOPIN DES CHAMPS
2.10 Cheltenham (win-50 bulls’-eye bet, win 30)
BET 2.5pts win BORN PATRIOT
BET 5pts win ALAPHILIPPE
2.50 Cheltenham
FORTUNE COOKIE and supernap
BET 20pts win ALLAHO
3.30 Cheltenham (win 30)
BET 6pts win FLOORING PORTER
4.10 Cheltenham (win 20)
BET 5pts win GLANCING QUEEN
4.50 Cheltenham (win 50 bulls’-eye bet, win 20 place)
BET 1.5pts win and 3pts place HEIA
BET 2pts (to win 20) LOVE ENVOI
LAY to lose DINOBLUE
5.30 Cheltenham (win 50 ante-post, and win 30 today)
BET 3pts win and 1pt win CAT TIGER
BET 3pts win AIN’T THAT A SHAME
What are points? Points facilitate a staking plan, which is the secret to creating profit. One point is whatever you choose: a pound, a euro, or whatever ….
Start with a bank and decide how much you can afford to lose over a period of time, and determine the size of your bets accordingly. Daqman makes this variation every day.
