TUESDAY CHAMPIONS LEAGUE: The Ultra previews Wednesday’s games between AJAX v LIVERPOOL, BARCELONA v BAYERN MUNICH and TOTTENHAM v SPORTING LISBON all with a recommended BETDAQ bet and FACTMAN stats.
AJAX V LIVERPOOL
8pm We have another crunch night in the Champions League on BETDAQ Betting Exchange this Wednesday. Matchday five is always a fascinating week, and we start the evening with a very interesting Group in Group A. Ajax won’t have given up on getting second but the odds are huge – they are six points behind Liverpool and they have a terrible goal difference too. Napoli are sitting on top of the Group, and Liverpool are three points behind – with Napoli fully expected to beat Rangers this evening too, it’s hard to see them not finishing top. Their goal difference is very impressive too. In a sense, Liverpool can actually “afford” to lose this game, but surely they can’t be thinking that. A draw would seal second place, and we must factor in that if it’s level with 15 minutes to go. Liverpool come into the game as odds on favourites, but at the moment you would have to be a brave punter to back this Liverpool side at odds on! They are trading 1.91 at the time of writing, and although there’s a big gulf in class between the sides and the domestic leagues; I still wouldn’t be taking Liverpool at odds on. I’m not sure what to even say about them losing to Nottingham Forest at the weekend – it just highlights that they have been all over the place recently.
Even in the 1-0 win over West Ham last week they conceded an xG of 2.63. Although Liverpool have been involved in three 1-0 games either way in their last three fixtures, all games could have easily finished 4-4! Liverpool will say they created an xG of 2.52 against Nottingham Forest but they conceded 2.44 which is a terrible performance really. That’s the highest xG Forest have created all season. Ajax clearly aren’t the force of old having sold their best players along with losing their manager, but they played OK against Napoli in that loss and I would expect them to create a lot of chances here. When you consider what Liverpool have been conceding chances for fun this season it’s hard to get away from a lay on Liverpool at 1.91, however the stand out bet here is Over 2.5 goals at 1.55. I can only see a very open and end-to-end game here – Ajax are an attacking side, and the xG figures from Liverpool’s recent games have been so open! I know the goals haven’t come but at 1.55 Over 2.5 is a Max Bet for me. Hopefully we can keep our good run going!
The Ultra Says:
Five points win Over 2.5 goals at 1.55 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/AjaLiv
CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH
BARCELONA V BAYERN MUNICH
8pm We go to Group C next where Barcelona’s hope of staying in the Champions League hang on by a very fine thread. They host Bayern Munich here and need to win which is no easy task as we all know. They didn’t play poorly in the two fixtures against Inter Milan, but they came out with a loss and a draw, and now they sit three points behind Inter Milan in second. Inter will be fully expected to beat Pizen, but then have to play Bayern Munich in the final Group game. The plan for Barcelona is beat Bayern Munich here, and then hope for a favour in the final Group game. Their chances are slim, but they have been playing wonderful football this season so they can have confidence in getting the first part done here. They come into the game as favourites at 2.36, which does feel a little short on first glance because Bayern Munich have been on a different level to Barcelona recently. However, it’s clear that Bayern haven’t been at their best this season and you cannot get away from the Barcelona xG figures this season. They have been incredible and they are creating a host of chances. Even in the loss away to Bayern earlier in the Group, they finished the game with an xG of 2.31 and were very unlucky not to get something from the game. Given they were unlucky to lose away to Inter Milan too, they are surely due a bit of luck here.
Football isn’t about luck though – it’s about taking their chances! Both sides recorded easy wins at the weekend without conceding, and Barcelona needed those two wins to “settle down” after losing El Clasico after the two Inter Milan results too. Bayern come here having scored 22 goals in their last six games in all competitions. They are still the best side in Germany by a distance, but they have dropped more points than usual this season. If I had to have a bet in the match odds market, I would lean towards Barcelona but I’m not getting involved at the odds. It’s just a little too short. With Barcelona needing to win and having to chase the game, I can only see a very open game here. The market is expecting goals too with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.44, but I like Over 3.5 goals at 2.06. An early goal here could see absolute fireworks and neither is going to sit back and stop attacking if they go behind. This could really be an entertaining game! Bayern have been banging in the goals for fun recently, and Barcelona are just creating so many chances this season.
The Ultra Says:
Three points win Over 3.5 goals at 2.06 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/BarBay
CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH
TOTTENHAM V SPORTING LISBON
8pm We finish a wonderful evening in Group D as Spurs host Sporting Lisbon. You can cover Group D with just three points! Spurs sit top now after beating Eintracht Frankfurt in London, and Sporting Lisbon have slipped out of the top two after starting the Group with two wins. Obviously nobody expected Sporting to win their opening two games, and they would have always been expected to drop back down. That’s really opened up the Group, and you have to say this is an excellent chance for Spurs to top the Group and give themselves (hopefully) as easier game in the next round. Even though Eintracht Frankfurt are sitting in last spot, they will be fancied to beat Marseille with home advantage which would only open up the Group more. Spurs come into this game as the hot favourites at 1.52. On paper, this should be an easy win for Spurs but they do come into the game under pressure. They have put back-to-back losses together against Manchester United and Newcastle. I’m sure the Newcastle loss at the weekend would have hurt a lot more than the loss at Old Trafford, but they just didn’t do enough to win the game against Newcastle and you have to say that the cracks are starting to show now.
Although it’s worth keeping an eye on Spurs at the moment because if their performance level drops and Conte attacking players in press conferences we could see fireworks, however there is a big gulf in class between the sides here and that’s hard to get away from. Sporting were very poor in their two games against Marseille, and Spurs will say that they were unlucky to lose away from home to them too. In fairness Spurs have clearly been a lot more “dodgy” away from home this season, but they have been playing their best football at home. The Newcastle loss at the weekend is a major worry, but this Sporting side is there for the taking and I’m happy to back Spurs at 1.52. I’m going to keep stakes reasonably small because of the little run Spurs are going through at the moment, but Sporting are an average side and Conte’s men should win here.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Tottenham to beat Sporting Lisbon at 1.52 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TotSpo
CHECK FACTMAN STATS ON THIS MATCH
