Jubilee Weekend and the Derby at Epsom should be a magical mixture. It will be a sensational day but sadly the Derby field matches the weather forecast: disappointing. It’s the smallest, and possibly worst, Derby line-up for a very long time but could still throw up a superstar. Camelot could be special but is very short on Betdaq at 1.66/1.7 and if you are going to back him wait until after the preliminaries as he could easily boil over.
I’d love to see my good friend Andrew Balding win the Derby with Bonfire but he will also be one to assess in the paddock as he’s quite a character. If there was a bigger field, the race would be ripe for an upset.
The early part of the flat season was such a mess with Derby trials run in terrible conditions on bottomless ground. Conditions could not contrast more and there should to be horses in the field capable of massive improvement. However, with such a small and disappointing turnout I’m not sure there is a joker in the pack.
Richard Fahey did us a big favour last week with Tamareen winning at a double figure price, and Mickdaam will definitely out-run his price (45 on Betdaq).
Euro 2012 starts in a weeks time and looks a wide open tournament. I think 12 or 13 of the 16 teams are good enough to win it and, as always in these competitions, the team that lifts the trophy will need a lot of luck, which all makes it so hard for punters.
It looks simple on paper as Spain (3.9/3.95 on Betdaq) remain the best side in the competition, largely down to their magnificent midfield. Can they pull it off again? They will be very hard to beat but I can’t back them at 3.9 as there are enough doubts to put me off. There are no worries about the midfield but question marks in defense and attack. David Villa and more importantly Carl Puyol are big misses from the World Cup winning team. Most worrying of all is that the Barcelona contingent – probably four of the starting XI – finished their season in the Copa Del Rey final only last Friday. That was the 20th competition in the last four years that Barcelona have been involved in right up until the last game. That is incredible but it’s also started to take effect and the Euros could be one step too far.
I really fancied Germany (4.2/4.3) to win the Euros prior to the Champions League Final. They have quality in every position and I expect Mesut Ozil to be one of the tournament’s stars. However, their Bayern Munich players will surely still be suffering after snatching defeat from the jaws of victory against Chelsea and showed un-German-like vulnerability throughout that night. Without those players, Germany have since been beaten 5-3 by Switzerland and it all just puts me off backing them at 4.2, though I certainly wouldn’t want to lay them either.
I backed the Netherlands (8.4/8.6) in this column to win the World Cup in South Africa and I left Soccer City that night thinking they’d missed their big chance. Robin van Persie, Arjen Robben and Wesley Schneider form the most potent attack in the competition but defensively they could be vulnerable.
I’d love to see England (14/14.5) win it and like what Roy Hodgson has done so far. I was lucky enough to be with the squad at their team hotel on Wednesday and was very encouraged by the atmosphere amongst the players. They seemed relaxed, happy and focussed on the task ahead.
They were able to unwind on the golf course after training yesterday and there were some decent players amongst them. James Milner is the best, while Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain is a bandit off his 18 handicap. I was paired with Wayne Rooney, who has a short game to match Luke Donald’s.
We had a barbecue with the players after the golf and it all seemed such a contrast to the unhappy camp at the World Cup in South Africa.
However, the usual questions remain: are we good enough and will fatigue be a major issue again?
France look the value bet in the competition at 12/12.5 and I think it’s just a matter of time before they are winning tournaments again. It’s no surprise to see them trading much shorter than England on Betdaq then they are with the fixed odds firms. France have a frightening array of talent at their disposal and their starting XI has the ability to set the tournament alight. Crucially Laurent Blanc has the team pulling together and full of confidence after a long unbeaten run, which includes victories in England and Germany. They lack experience but lessons will have been learnt from the debacle in South Africa and they look big runners at 12.
My dark horses for the competition are Croatia at 62/64 on the Daq. I fancy them to go through from their group along with Spain, at Italy’s expense. Slaven Bilic will want to go out on a high and, with nothing to lose, I sense he will have a real go with his Croatian side. In a tight, tense tournament a carefree team is very dangerous and I can see Croatia causing real problems. They aren’t great defensively but have lots of attacking potential led by Luka Modric. Croatia could be the surprise package of the tournament and keep an eye on Mario Mandzukic in any goalscorer markets.
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