MONDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews TORINO v ATALANTA and CELTA VIGO v CADIZ both with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
TORINO V ATALANTA
7.45pm Monday night football on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE comes from Serie A and La Liga this week, and we have two very interesting games to enjoy! We kick off the evening in Serie A with Torino hosting Atalanta. We have a very open market here; Atalanta are the favourites at 2.62, Torino are 3.15 and the draw is trading 3.2 at the time of writing. Atalanta started this matchday sitting in seventh, and their aim for this season will be getting into Europe again – possibly the Europa League is more realistic than the Champions League, but I would expect AC Milan to drop out of the top four based on their performance level this season. Last season Atalanta were a very solid fifth, but Juventus did get a ten point deduction as well. Atalanta would have been in a very strong position but they have gone three games without a win and dropped down the table – they had a very difficult fixture list though. They lost to Inter Milan and Napoli, and also drew away to Udinese. It might sound dramatic, but this is a must win game for Atalanta – they can’t afford to lose any more ground in the race for the European spots and they also have to play AC Milan at the weekend so it’s a huge week for Atalanta.
If you look at sides based purely on their under-lining numbers; Atalanta are actually the third best side in Serie A. Their overall performance level is +0.41 which is only behind Napoli and Inter Milan. They are creating an average xG of 1.56 which is the third best attacking figure in the league, and they have been rock solid at the back too. They should be higher up the table, but let’s be honest – they have always performed well with strong xG figures but they’ve never been able to live with the bigger sides in Serie A. Torino are at the opposite end of the xG table, they have only managed to create an average xG of 1.08 which is very low. The positive for Torino however is they have been keeping games as tight as possible; their average xG conceded is only 1.17 which is the fifth best defence in the league. Under 2.5 goals is trading 1.67, and that definitely makes a lot of appeal – the market is expecting a very cagey game. I couldn’t put anyone off the Unders bet, but the 2.62 on Atalanta is too big to ignore here – Atalanta have been playing to a much higher standard compared to Torino, and being away from home isn’t a negative for them.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Atalanta to beat Torino at 2.62 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/TorAta
CELTA VIGO V CADIZ
8pm Next we move to La Liga as Celta Vigo host Cadiz. This is a huge clash in the relegation battle! Celta Vigo will be pleased to have home advantage as they are currently sitting in the relegation zone. They have only managed eight points from 14 games; they aren’t playing poor football but they just aren’t getting the results at the moment. They aren’t taking the chances they are creating, and they are conceding more chances than they should too. Their goals conceded works out at 1.71, but their average xG conceded is 1.46. There’s definitely room for improvement but you’d have to say that if they can keep their current performance level they should get out of the relegation zone. This is an interesting game, because Cadiz start the game outside the bottom three, but their under-lining numbers are a major red flag. Cadiz have three more points than Celta Vigo, so this is a huge game for both sides. Cadiz have only been creating an average xG of 0.86 which is the worst attacking record La Liga. They have been exceptionally lucky to get the results they have managed – their record at the back is poor too. Their average xG conceded of 1.66 is the third worst defensive record this season.
You have to give massive credit to Cadiz for grinding out as many results as they have. They have experience in La Liga now, and they have experience staying up in a relegation battle as well. That does count for a little, but if they keep playing at this level it’s actually hard to see them staying up. For example, their overall performance level is -0.80 which is the worst in La Liga; only two clubs have a figure of greater than -0.50! Celta Vigo come into this game as the odds on favourites at 1.64 which is understandable given the Cadiz figures – the away win is trading 6.6 with the draw at 4.1. To be honest, nothing in the match odds market makes any appeal to me here. Celta haven’t got enough results to support them at such low odds, and Cadiz are very hard to support looking at their figures. With both sides struggling, I like Both Teams Not To Score at 1.8 – it’s hard to see a very open game here, and I can’t see many goals.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams Not To Score at 1.8 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/CelCdz
