PICABO A BIG IMPROVER: Daqman looks at the better-quality races of the day at Haydock, Musselburgh and Newmarket, in which Picabo is a big improver, he says.
TOMORROW: Jackpot-king Daqman, who is also on two lays out of two, previews the Saturday racing at Ascot, Haydock and Newmarket.
Look for the gold-medal horses. In their absence, at least bet on silver and bronze. Racing is all about class, and the higher the class of horse and race, the better chance you have of winning money.
We have the Bolt (Frankel) and we have the Rudisha (Camelot) but they don’t run every day. The next best thing to the pattern is the quality race: 2 and 3 are the highest class you’ll get today but at least the form should be reliable.
3.00 Musselburgh (class 3 conditions race): Liber looks the bet of the day, making a solo trip to Edinburgh from Newmarket, with an unblemished record for this grade.
Put to Listed level as a juvenile, her reappearance run can be ignored because of heavy ground, and she got back on track on firm last time out.
4.00 Musselburgh (class 3 handicap) There should be plenty of pace on here: Able Master, Jeannie Galloway, Polish World and Vito Volterra have all been noted as front-runners.
The ground may have gone against Green Howard and Solar Spirit, and Copperwood has never won higher than class 5.
So it looks best left to Al Muheer (5.1 on BETDAQ this morning), back to good form in higher grade during July, and not ground dependent.
8.00 Haydock (class 2 handicap): Your problem here as a punter is the mix of second and third season fillies but you know that the three-year-olds are most likely to improve, particularly those lightly raced.
Askaud has already run second in a class 2, but has had as much racing as Burke’s Rock, Fillionaire, Lady Macduff and Miss Azeza put together. Her stable is the only one in the field that’s out of form.
Ariyfa and Tuscania have won only their maiden, which I always consider a bad sign: both have been placed without winning in class 3.
Of the three-year-olds, Fillionaire is in the same boat; has won only her maiden and a drop back from Listed level to class 3 last time had no result. Miss Aziza also scored in the Spring and has been a negative in the market since.
Stella Express is well exposed and was a long way behind Arifya at Goodwood; Roger Sez is a more likely sort for sprints later on.
If the second-season animals beat those aged four, it’s unlikely to be Magic Express, badly off with Tuscania on Doncaster form, and facing a change of ground (she’s won only with ‘soft’ in the going return).
Burke’s Rock has won only in class 5 but the level of his class-4 second to Jacob Cats has been lifted by the winner since.
8.20 Newmarket (class 3 handicap): Of the three in the frame at Epdom in July, Sacrosanctus is worse off at the weights but is the one who can score on a tough straight track, whereas the runner-up, Swiss Cross, has preferred a turning course for his three handicap successes.
Sohraab (fourth) could overtake them both in blinkers for the first time but is a one-win-a-year 5f horse, and I don’t fancy this to be his day.
I’m choosing between the big improver, Picabo, eased down when winning a class lower at Yarmouth, and Fratellino, one-time Listed level winner whose last two runs at Ascot have both suggested a crack at 6f. Frankie Dettori booked: 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning was tasty.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 5pts win AL MUHEER (4.00 Musselburgh)
BET 5pts win PICABO and 3.3pts win FRATELLINO (8.20 Newmarket)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 10pts win on each and 5pts win double LIBER (nap, 3.00 Musselburgh) and BURKE’S ROCK (8.00 Haydock)
* Daqman’s selections are backed to win 20 points for the win (except Daq Multiples) so, if you divide 20 by his stake, you know the Betdaq offer taken at the time of writing. Points are what you make them: if your unit stake is £5, then 5pts win is £25.
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