THURSDAY IN EUROPE: The Ultra previews ALMERIA v BARCELONA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.

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8.30pm We finish the midweek La Liga action on BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE with Almeria hosting Barcelona on Thursday night. We’re heading into the final weekend of the Bundesliga and Premier League this weekend, but we have a couple of La Liga matchdays to go after this round of midweek fixtures. Barcelona will be fully expected to win here with Almeria nailed to the bottom of the table all season. They come into the game as the odds on favourites at 1.47 with Almeria 6.8 and the draw is 5.7 at the time of writing. While you might have expected Barcelona to be trading shorter given how little points Almeria have this season, their under-lining numbers aren’t bad at home.

Unfortunately for the home side, performances haven’t translated into results. They have created an average xG of 1.61 at home this season which is pretty good, and they are only conceding an average of 1.39 too. That’s solid form, and you could even call it mid-table standard. However, they haven’t been able to get over the line – they have only managed eight points here all season. They remain the only side without a win at home in La Liga this season, and I’m sure there are a lot of sides with less chances created than them. Home form is always key in a relegation battle, unfortunately for Almeria the writing has been on the wall for some time. They have eight points at home this season, and the next worst is 17 which is quite a gap.

Football is data driven these days, and while Almeria are nailed to the bottom of the table without a win at home, we still don’t see Barcelona trading at an exceptionally short price because of the Almeria performances. Barcelona have been sloppy at the back this season, and that has been the major difference with Real Madrid. They actually have a battle on their hands for second place with Girona, never mind a title battle! There is only a marginal difference between Barcelona and Real Madrid going forward, but Barcelona are conceding close to double the goals Real Madrid have this season and that’s been the difference.

The market is expecting goals here with Over 2.5 goals trading 1.38 – neither side have a reason to sit back here so we should see an open and entertaining game. Obviously Almeria have really struggled to score goals and get results this season, but Both Teams To Score is trading odds on at 1.58. I couldn’t put anyone off the Barcelona bet at 1.48 because I expected to see them at least five ticks shorter, however I do feel Almeria can find the net at some stage in what should be an open game and Both Teams To Score looks a nice position at 1.58.

The Ultra Says:
Two points win Both Teams To Score at 1.58 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.

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