CANADIAN OPEN: With anticipation building for what should be a terrific U.S. Open at Oakmont, the PGA Tour heads north this week for Canada’s national open, a tournament that predates the creation of the Tour by some 65 years. Nearly all of the legends of the game have won this event, with one notable exception: the Canadian Open is widely regarded as the most prestigious tournament that Jack Nicklaus, the Golden Bear himself, was never able to add to his trophy case.
Despite its prestigious history, there’s no denying that this event has drawn the short straw in terms of scheduling this year — being sandwiched between The Memorial and the U.S. Open isn’t exactly conducive to attracting a strong field. That said, World No. 2 Rory McIlroy is here this week, as is Ludvig Aberg, Shane Lowry, Sungjae Im, and a handful of other prominent names, including top Canadian players Corey Conners, Taylor Pendrith, and Nick Taylor.
We have a new venue this year, as TPC Toronto’s North Course will play host to this tournament for the first time. Originally designed by Doug Carrick in 2001 before being reworked by former Carrick apprentice Ian Andrew two years ago, TPC Toronto is a longish par-70, measuring just under 7,400 yards, that features narrow fairways, smaller than average greens, and lush bentgrass rough. Though it’s difficult to determine what scoring will be like considering we’ve never seen the course in competition, it’s worth noting that the PGA Tour Americas, the circuit below the Korn Ferry which brought the former Canadian and Latin American tours together under one banner, held their year-end event at TPC Toronto last September and the scores were quite high, with 5-under being the winning number. Again, not sure how much that tells us considering the different caliber of players involved, but it at least suggests that the course will put up a fight and we shouldn’t expect a birdie-fest this week. With what awaits the players at Oakmont in a few days, that’s probably a good thing.
Despite not posting any strong results since his Masters triumph in April, McIlroy is the clear favorite this week and is currently trading at 6.1 on the BETDAQ exchange. The player with the next-shortest odds, Ludvig Aberg (14.1), has also gone several weeks without contending in a tournament, so the favorites this week might not be quite as strong as their prices would suggest. With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Shane Lowry (23.0)- Despite not yet finding the winner’s circle, Lowry is having a big year, racking up nine top-25 finishes in 13 starts, including six top-15s and a pair of runners-up, the most recent coming at the Truist Championship just three weeks ago. His ball-striking has been typically brilliant, as he ranks 2nd on Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and 3rd in strokes gained on approach, and he’s been handy with the short game, too, ranking 22nd in strokes gained around the green. TPC Toronto profiles as a ball-strikers layout with its narrow fairways, thick rough, and small greens… the type of place that would seem to suit Lowry perfectly. He’s had success in Canada before, notching a pair of top-10s at this event, and with a little luck he might be able to do something special this week. He’s worth a bet at better than 20/1.
Ryan Fox (58.0)- A native of New Zealand, the long-hitting Fox has been a globetrotting pro for nearly two decades, earning victories on various tours around the world and occasionally making a cameo on leaderboards at big-time tournaments, including major championships. He had never tasted victory on the PGA Tour, however, until last month, when he broke through with a win at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic after closing with rounds of 68-66 and outlasting Mackenzie Hughes and Harry Higgs in a playoff. Since then, Fox has finished 28th at the PGA Championship at T20 at last week’s Memorial, so he’s in top form and surely full of confidence in a spot like this: a course where no one has an edge in experience and a field that’s objectively weaker than some of those he’s seen recently. The difference in Fox’s game lately has been obvious: while he’s always been long off the tee and a fairly consistent ball-striker, his putting has been superb this season, as he ranks 17th on Tour in putting average and 39th in one-putt percentage. With all facets of his game clicking, Fox is one to watch this week and an excellent value at a price like 58.0.
Emiliano Grillo (102.0)- After struggling for much of the past two years Grillo’s game is on the upswing again, and at only 32 years old the Argentinian still has time to fulfill his early-career promise. The most significant positive shift in his game lately has been accuracy off the tee: after years of periodic inconsistency with the driver, Grillo has straightened things out, quite literally, and now ranks 31st on Tour in driving accuracy. That has enabled him to rack up a string of nice results, with four top-25 finishes in his past 7 starts, including a T20 and a T16 in his last two events. Grillo has a couple of PGA Tour victories to his credit, so we know he won’t be scared of the moment if he finds himself in contention on Sunday, and based on his play lately that is a definite possibility. He certainly has a better chance this week than his current price would suggest.
