COGNIZANT: The PGA Tour’s Florida Swing kicks off this week in sunny Palm Beach, where a field that is light on star power but interesting nonetheless will tee it up at a familiar venue, the PGA National Champion Course, with an opportunity to make an early-season splash.
Long known as the Honda Classic, this tournament has been part of the schedule since the mid-70s and counts among its champions some of the true greats of the past 50 years, names like Nicklaus, Trevino, Miller, Couples, Singh, Els, and McIlroy. While the quality of the fields has declined a bit in recent years due to scheduling quirks and the growth of bigger, richer tournaments in the weeks before and after, this event has produced some great finishes over the past decade and has served as a launching pad of sorts for several young up-and-coming players, like last year’s champ, Joe Highsmith. Players coming down the stretch on Sunday must survive the infamous Bear Trap, holes 15, 16, and 17, which consist of two treacherous par-3s sandwiched around a difficult par-4. When the wind is right, it can be among the most challenging 3-hole stretches in golf and has ruined many a player’s round and tournament.
The rest of the course is plenty challenging, too: despite tipping out at just 7,167 yards, the demanding nature of the layout causes many players to crack, as this is one of the few non-majors that regularly features an over-par cut. It’s tight off the tee, there’s water everywhere, and the firm, fast Bermuda greens are heavily bunkered. While it might not be the most enjoyable course to play with friends on a Saturday afternoon, it makes for great theater as a spectator, and you know that whoever wins will have put on a world-class ball-striking display. Nothing comes easy on this track.
With that in mind, here’s what I’m thinking this week:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Nicolai Hojgaard (21.0)- Often overshadowed by his brother Rasmus, who is also in the field this week and is currently trading around 29.0 at BETDAQ, Nicolai has been in top form lately, logging top-5 finishes in 2 of his last 3 worldwide starts, including a T3 in Phoenix last time out. He’s been striping the tee ball, ranking first on Tour in strokes gained off the tee and 7th in driving distance (321.7 yards per drive), but he’s also in the top-20 in strokes gained on approach and top-30 in strokes gained putting, so he’s really humming on all cylinders. Someone with his tee-to-green chops should like it at PGA National, and indeed Hojgaard played well here last year, finishing T18 in only his second career appearance at this tournament. He’s going to be tough to beat this week and is worth a bet at around 20/1.
Daniel Berger (42.0)- Before a three-year slump marked by injuries and a loss of confidence, Berger was a cash machine at this tournament, racking up three top-5 finishes, including a runner-up, in a 7-year span. With its demanding tee-to-green nature, wall-to-wall Bermuda, and many intimidating shots, the Champion Course is an ideal fit for the famously unflappable Berger. He’s a Florida native who grew up on courses just like this and has developed an immunity to some of the stressors that will unravel so many players this week. Critically, he’s fully on the other side of the doldrums now and is off to a solid start in 2026, with a T6 at the Sony and a T16 in Phoenix among the highlights. He needs only a victory to truly be considered “back”, and he’s got a better chance this week than his price would indicate.
Eric Cole (110.0)- A consummate grinder, Cole is still seeking his first PGA Tour victory, though he’s been close several times. One of those times came in 2023 at this tournament, when he fired 14-under for the week and went to a playoff with Chris Kirk that he would eventually lose, settling for runner-up. Still, the experience surely proved to Cole that he has what it takes to get it done, especially at PGA National, a course much like so many of the South Florida tracks that he grew up playing. He’s in decent form at the moment, finishing 27th or better in 2 of his 4 starts this year, and a week in his home state at a place where he’s had success before may be just the spark he needs to ignite his season. Cole is an excellent value here as a triple-digit longshot.
