SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews LAZIO v SASSUOLO with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
LAZIO V SASSUOLO
7.45pm It’s the start of a massive week around Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange as the Champions League and Europa League Last 16 kicks off, and we kick off the week in Serie A for Monday Night Football! Lazio host Sassuolo at the Stadio Olimpico, and we have a very interesting market here. This might be a fixture a lot of football fans gloss over compared to some of the glamorous ties this week but it’s a very interesting game when you dig into the context. Lazio have been very poor this season – bang average in fact – and they actually come into the game sitting below Sassuolo in the table. Lazio still come into the game as the favourites though at 2.3 with Sassuolo 3.65 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing.
It’s very easy to pick holes in both sides here – you could argue that they have been both worse than mid-table. At least Sassuolo come into the game on a good run; they’ve won their last three games. Lazio have been enduring a miserable slump since the end December – they’ve only won two Serie A games from the matchday before Christmas. Not exactly the stat you want to see when considering backing a 2.3 favourite. They haven’t scored in their last three either. Sarri’s men have at least had a cup distraction – they managed a creditable 2-2 draw against Atalanta in the first leg of the Coppa Italia Semi-Final – but the league form has been very concerning.
Lazio have an average xG created of 1.25 – that is a bottom half attacking figure in Serie A, and as I highlighted in the Coppa Italia preview last week, it is closer to the relegation battle than the European spots. Their average xG conceded of 1.47 is equally poor – mid-table at best defensively, and they’ve been massively getting away with things at the back all season given they’ve only been conceding an average of one goal per game. Sassuolo are very similar on paper – their average xG created of just 1.20 is actually the joint-fifth worst attacking figure in Serie A, they’ve done really well to be sitting just inside the top half of the table coming into this matchday.
The big concern with Sassuolo is their defence. Their average xG conceded of 1.64 is the second worst defensive figure in Serie A this season. In theory, that should be music to Lazio’s ears given they have home advantage, but the problem is Lazio haven’t been able to score! Three successive league games without a goal is a worrying run for Sarri’s side, and it’s hard to see where the goal threat is coming from given they have struggled to create chances all season. Not only are their attacking figures poor, they haven’t even been converting all those chances either – they’re scoring less than a goal a game on average. Sassuolo also have real momentum – three wins on the bounce, full of confidence, and while they might have been over-performing, at they have confidence at the moment which is clearly something Lazio lack.
When you look at the under-lining numbers, it’s hard not to feel that the 2.3 on Lazio is a little short here. It’s also hard to have a confident opinion on the goals market – for example Sassuolo might be leaking chances, but can Lazio actually take advantage of that given they’ve been so limited in attack. On balance, the best value option here is the Lazio lay – I expect a closer game than those odds suggest.
The Ultra Says:
Two points lay (liability) Lazio to beat Sassuolo at 2.3 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SALaSa
