EUROPA LEAGUE SEMI-FINALS THURSDAY: The Ultra previews ASTON VILLA v NOTTINGHAM FOREST with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
ASTON VILLA V NOTTINGHAM FOREST
8pm The Europa League Semi-Finals reach their climax on Thursday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and what a second leg we have in store as Aston Villa host Nottingham Forest at Villa Park! The first all-Midlands clash in UEFA competition history is perfectly poised after Forest claimed a narrow 1-0 win in the first leg at the City Ground – now Aston Villa have home advantage and they come into the tie as the odds on favourites to win in 90 minutes. We could easily need extra time and penalties here to be honest! Aston Villa are trading 1.86 with Nottingham Forest 4.6 and the draw is 3.9 at the time of writing.
It was no surprise that the first leg was a tight, tense affair – 0-0 at the break – and you wouldn’t be surprised to see the same style of game here. It’s very hard to see Forest being too adventurous with a 1-0 lead. However, they are in superb goal scoring form in the Premier League – they’ve won their last three games 4-1, 5-0 and 3-1 away against Chelsea at the weekend. This is a genuinely historic occasion for both sets of supporters to be honest. Forest claimed back-to-back European Cups in 1979 and 1980 under the legendary Brian Clough, while Villa lifted the trophy in 1982 – but for the current generation of fans, reaching a European final would be a once-in-a-generation moment. Forest have definitely been in better form than Villa; obviously it’s hard to read too much into the weekend given it’s sandwiched between this tie, but the performance from Villa at home to Spurs at the weekend was very poor.
Obviously both sides had an eye on this fixture; plenty of changes etc. Unai Emery is the most decorated manager in this competition’s history, having won it four times, and he will know exactly what buttons to press here. I’m happy to ignore that Spurs performance; also Spurs are fighting for their Premier League lives at the moment too. There really isn’t much between the sides on the underlying numbers. Villa’s average xG created of 1.45 in the Premier League is only the ninth best attacking figure; they’ve done very well to get Champions League football for next season – Nottingham Forest, for all their relegation battle drama this season, actually sit right alongside Villa in the xG table – their average xG created of 1.43 is practically identical, and their average xG conceded of 1.47 is only fractionally worse than Villa with an average xG conceded of 1.44 which is equally mid-table. There’s so little between the sides on performance levels.
I know home advantage has to be a big factor here, but you have to feel that 1.86 feels too short on Villa in what should be another tight game. Forest seem to be peaking towards the end of the season too. Forest have been transformed under Vitor Pereira. They arrive at Villa Park unbeaten in their last seven Premier League and four Europa League games too. I know you can easily make the case that Villa have the better quality in their squad and also Unai Emery’s experience of the competition has to be a positive too, but from a value point of view I’m very happy to lay Villa at the odds. I just see the game being closer than the odds suggest, and at 1.86 I’m happy with a confident bet.
The Ultra Says:
Three points lay (liability) Aston Villa to beat Nottingham Forest at 1.86 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELAsNo
