SERIE A MONDAY: The Ultra previews NAPOLI v BOLOGNA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NAPOLI v BOLOGNA
7.45pm Monday Night Football from Europe on Betdaq Betting Exchange this week comes from Serie A as Napoli host Bologna at the Maradona! We’re fast approaching the end of the season and thoughts are starting to turn to the upcoming World Cup. We have some huge games towards the end of the season and some dead rubbers, like always. This is a fascinating clash between two top sides; however Napoli are pretty much certain of a top four spot for Champions League football but for Bologna every game is a must win are they try to break into that final European spot – which looks unlikely at the moment.
Napoli can’t fully take their foot off the gas yet, but a win here will see them enjoy the final two games guaranteed Champions League football. Inter Milan have already wrapped up the Scudetto in some style, but Antonio Conte has done an outstanding job to have Napoli in second because they clearly haven’t been at their best for long stretches of the campaign. The most embarrassing moment came early in the season when they got knocked out of the Champions League at the Group stage – barely believable given so many teams progress these days. Bologna have had an average season too; Champions League football after the 2023/24 season has turned into mid-table. They won the Coppa Italia last season; this season ninth doesn’t look so much when you take away the Cup win.
Home form at the Maradona has been one Napoli’s great strengths this season, and it’s no surprise to see Napoli come into the game as the odds on favourites. Napoli are trading 1.58 with Bologna 6.6 and the draw is 4.4 at the time of writing. When you look at the underlying numbers, Napoli are clearly the superior side. Their average xG created of 1.53 is the fifth best attacking figure in Serie A; not quite top four level but Conte has kept them second for a large part of the season. Their average xG conceded of 1.12 is the fourth best defensive figure but a very impressive one, which also tells you everything about how compact and organised Conte has them. Bologna’s numbers are decent enough for a mid-table outfit but there is a noticeable drop off in quality. Their average xG created of 1.40 is eighth best in Serie A – a respectable figure but they were never a side that blew sides away. Their average xG conceded of 1.14 is actually the fifth best defensive figure in the league, which is a genuinely impressive stat but that’s actually higher than recent seasons for Bologna.
The issue for Bologna is purely going forward – they generally don’t create enough and haven’t been dangerous enough in the final third, they always grinded out results. This season they have conceded more, and that has put them in mid-table. It’s hard to see past Napoli here, but the 1.58 doesn’t exactly jump off the page as massive value. If anything, that feels a little short – there’s not a massive amount between the sides on under-lining numbers. Bologna are no pushovers obviously. What does jump out though is the goals angle. Both sides have excellent defensive records, and with Bologna’s attack being the clear weakness, I can’t see this being a high scoring affair. Napoli under Conte are disciplined and controlled too, and Under 2.5 goals looks a nice position at 1.94.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.94 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/SANaBo
